1. Theory of Change
1.1 Overview

2. What is a Theory of Change?
A hypothesized series of changes that are expected to occur in a given context as the result of specific integrated actions.
Your interpretations?

3. What is a Theory of Change?
a product –
Conceptual graphic / metrics/ complementary documentation
a process of articulating the way we think about a current problem, its root causes, the long-term change we seek, and what needs to happen in order for that change to come about.
Continual reflection on whether, how, why change is occurring
Modifying the “product” if necessary
Conceptual diagram SKIP TO NEXT SLIDE AND SKIP BACK.
explicitly displays the long-term goal, domains of change, incremental outcomes, assumptions, rationales, and outputs, and shows the pathways that lead to the desired change.
Metrics for each component of the TOC - tell us how success will be recognized at each step. For FFP are communicated in the logframe.
TOC complementary documentation- communicates information not easily interpreted from the TOC conceptual graphic
The PROCESS is the crux of this workshop.
Stand up if you are working on a project that has a TOC.
Remain standing if you were on the team to develop that TOC.
Stand if you have been a part of trying to make the ToC make sense after someone else developed it.
Have not yet been involved in a project TOC.

4. Why do we need a Theory of Change?
To build a common understanding around the process needed to achieve a desired change.
To provide a detailed map showing pathways of change that is based on a clear and testable set of hypotheses.
To identify critical areas addressed by external actors and how the project will link to them.
To make explicit how activities and outputs will interact within the context.

5. The TOC Process

6. The TOC Process Comprehensive data collection and analysis
Use causal analysis to create a problem tree
Create a solution tree and identify pathways of change
Identify assumptions and articulate rationales
Prioritize outcomes the project will address
Identify intervention outputs
Transfer the TOC to the logframe
Identify indicators for TOC components
Complete complementary documentation
Review annually at minimum
This slide outlines each step of the process. Details on each step are provided in subsequent slides.
Stress the need to constantly revisit steps as you gain more information.
Shaded text indicates a step not carried out in this workshop.

7. 1. Comprehensive Data Collection and Analysis
Your evolving evidence base !
Information that supports:
Your claim a problem exists
Opportunities/ capacities that will support underlying assumptions
Causal links between outcomes.
What kind of data?
Quantitative and qualitative
Government research
Donor research
Program-specific
Academic
Community–based research
Key to successful data collection / analysis?
Balance between hard and soft data
Diversity of relevant sources
Reliability of sources
A strong evidence base sets the TOC process apart from other processes.
Comprehensive data collection and analysis allows practitioners to identify context-specific problems, rather than simply relying on generic analyses of the problems of the poor.
Ongoing data collection and analysis helps practitioner’s fill data gaps to more accurately determine the causal links between problems.
Comprehensive data collection provides evidence to support the underlying assumptions and the links between actions and outcomes.

8. 1. Comprehensive Data Collection and Analysis
(session 1.2)
Keys to effective data collection / analysis
Use a conceptual framework to help determine what to collect and to sort data
Consistently track what you don’t know – identify evidence data gaps
Use a diversity of relevant, reliable sources
Qualitative and quantitative information
How many of you have been involved in the process of pulling together data to inform TOC development? Do you use a conceptual framework?
So much information out there: Hard to know what to collect & when to stop.
Data gaps.
Diversity – not just the CSI/ not just one HEA assessment.
Following the short presentation on data collection/ conceptual frameworks…break into small groups (diverse tech representation)
Continue with the data analysis started before the workshop. You will have approximately 2 hours to complete this exercise with the objective of answering some key questions that will inform the TOC model.

9. 1. Comprehensive Data Collection and Analysis
Stakeholder Mapping and Analysis
Helps build evidence base for assumptions
Identifies conditions and resources already in place that are necessary to achieve outcomes
Helps team begin to prioritize problems for project focus
Who is doing what, where?
How successful is it?
What are the gaps?
Is ongoing throughout the development of the theory of change.
A key component of comprehensive analysis for any project design is a stakeholders’ analysis.
This piece becomes even more important in the TOC process as theories of change are not limited to the work of organization or consortium.
Stakeholder analyses should be ongoing through the life of the project to understand shifts in the relative interests and influences of various stakeholders.

10. 2. Causal Analysis / Problem Tree
Map Causal Streams
What are the main causes of the overarching problem?
In what sequence are problems connected to one another?
Highlight data gaps in the causal logic.
Overarching problem: The most significant problem facing a defined population
Key problems: Broad conditions that affects people in a negative way
Underlying/root causes: Major causes of key problems that are often the effects of other causes and must be identified during the synthesis stage of design
Contextual conditions: General social, political, and environmental conditions that contribute to underlying causes and, at times, result from the key problems
The key problems will form the top of the problem tree, the underlying/root causes are placed in the middle of the tree, and contextual conditions will generally feed in from the bottom.
Underlying causes come in myriad forms: practices and behaviors, knowledge and skill levels, beliefs, attitudes, and systemic conditions. It is critical to think about all of them during causal analysis.
Include contextual conditions that affect all underlying causes. Example: climate change; political instability; etc.

11. 2. Causal Analysis / Problem Tree
Identify 4 Levels of Problems
Overarching problem – the most significant problem facing a defined population.
Key problems – broad conditions that affect people in a negative way (e.g., poor health, inadequate income, low capacity to prepare for and respond to shocks and stressors).
Underlying/ root causes – conditions that contribute to key problems. Often the effects of other causes.
Contextual conditions that contribute to root causes (general social, political, environmental conditions, etc.)

12. 2. Causal Analysis / Problem Tree
Drill down on underlying/root causes
practices and behavior (e.g., low adoption of improved agricultural practices)
knowledge levels, beliefs, attitudes that influence practices and behavior
systemic conditions (e.g., limited access to improved water supply) that influence both knowledge and practice
Underlying causes come in myriad forms: practices and behaviors, knowledge and skill levels, beliefs, attitudes, and systemic conditions. It is critical to think about all of them during causal analysis.

13. Sample Excerpt from Problem Tree
Determining the causal linkages between problems allows us to organize these conditions into a problem tree and begin to see a hierarchical cause-and-effect flow and cross-causal linkages. This is a crucial preliminary step for identifying domains of change and pathways of change in a TOC.

14. 3. Solution Tree Restate all problems in terms of desired change
State as “condition resolved”, not as actions
No use of “through”, “by”, “so that”, “via” etc.
Problem trees  solution trees
Overarching problem statement  project goal
Key problems  domains of change
Underlying causes  solutions (incremental outcomes)
The next step is to restate all problem statements in terms of desired change. Be sure to state the project goal and all incremental outcomes as if they have already been achieved (e.g., Populations in X District are Food Secure...), rather than in the future tense (e.g., Household food security will increase).

15. Sample Solution Tree
Very important to NOT limit analysis to what your NGO will address – want to keep a comprehensive lens on all contributors / solutions necessary to get to the goal. Thus….important to mirror EVERY underlying cause documented in problem tree as a solution.
As we refine the process, some solutions will take the form of outcomes, some will be assumptions, risks, breakthroughs.
Won’t always know until further discussion with all cooperating stakeholders. If no actor addresses a problem, it becomes a risk.
Stress: at this point we are not listing any ACTIVITIES necessary to attain goal.

16. 3. Pathways of Change
Identify domains of change (Purposes, Strategic Objectives, key leverage points)
main areas where change must occur
Map a pathway of change
sequence in which outcomes are expected to occur in order to accomplish the domain of change and ultimately reach the stated goal.
outcomes on lower levels are preconditions for outcomes at the next higher level.
The step-by-step solutions that make up pathways of change are interchangeably referred to as outcomes, results, accomplishments, or preconditions.
We map pathways of change by starting with a domain of change and tracing all the step-by-step solutions that lead to it.
This often results in identifying cross- domain linkages, a key strength of theories of change compared to results frameworks or other logistical frameworks.

17. 4. Identify assumptions and articulate rationales
Session 3.2
Assumptions: Conditions that are important to the success of a TOC, but are beyond its control
Rationales: the underlying logic and evidence that support the plausibility of a connection(s) in a pathway
There is a wide range of interpretation about what constitutes an assumption in a TOC. Because this course is primarily designed for implementers of FFP DFAPs, we use FFP’s definition.
Assumptions are conditions that are beyond the control of the program, but will likely affect the success of reaching various levels of preconditions, and could affect the overall success of the TOC . They are conditions that are already in place that you do not expect to change during the life of the program.
Rationales differ from assumptions in that they are not conditions that are in place, but rather explanations and evidence that show why the causal logic in a TOC is plausible.
For example Women’s education – improved nutrition outcomes.

18. 5. Prioritize outcomes/domains of change that the project will address
Identify outcomes or entire domains of change that are outside the project’s scope
Identify outcomes already being addressed by external actors
Consider your institutional comparative advantage
Stakeholder review
Invite key stakeholders to vet the theory of change
Identify outcomes where new partners will be necessary
Because a TOC depicts a broad view of what needs to change in a given context in order to reach the overarching goal, pathways and domains of change should not be limited only to those changes that one organization can stimulate. We need to constantly think about other actors (public, private, local, national, international, etc.) that may contribute to achieving an overarching goal.
Sometimes this means that other actors will tackle an entire pathway to a domain of change; sometimes it means that other actors will simply be responsible for several outcomes along a pathway of change.

19. 6. Identify intervention outputs for TOC outcomes
Session 4.2
The next step is to think about the best interventions that will help us to start the wheels of change in motion.
We don’t’ need to have an intervention output for every single outcome presented in the model. By using specific criteria, we can determine which interventions are necessary and sufficient to achieve TOC outcomes.
In this session, we will:
explain how to identify “entry points” for intervention.
discuss criteria for selecting interventions.
demonstrate how to insert intervention outputs in the TOC diagram.
Small groups will have 1 hour to identify several intervention outputs and insert them into your diagram.

20. 6. Identify intervention outputs for TOC outcomes
Session 4.2
Select appropriate responses based on
a clear and logical link to at least one TOC outcome.
opportunity analysis – what’s already working? What capacities are in place?
a thorough analysis of assumptions and risks related to outcomes
the comparative advantage of your organization/ consortium
the interest and influence of relevant stakeholders
This stage of the process also helps us to prioritize interventions. Practitioners often want to carry out every possible activity that could be of some help to people.
The reality is that budget, staffing, and temporal constraints do not allow for everything to be done effectively.
By using specific criteria, we can determine which interventions are necessary and sufficient to achieve TOC outcomes.
This will contribute to more efficient and effective programming.

21. Refine the TOC Use distinct colors and shapes and make a key
Session 4.3 Refine the TOC.
Gives you a chance to Improve readability of your TOC diagram and develop a key for all color and shape coding.

22. 7. Transfer TOC to Logframe
If you are developing the TOC for a FFP-funded project, you will need to transfer it to your monitoring and evaluation logframe.
This slide displays USAID’s Office of FFP guidance on the relationship between the TOC and the logframe.
Source: USAID 2016

23. 8. Identify indicators
Indicators tell us how we will recognize achievement at each step in a pathway.
Can be quantitative or qualitative
At least one indicator should be defined for every TOC component transferred to the logframe.
Impact indicators – purpose-level and goal outcomes
Outcome indicators – sub-purpose/intermediate outcomes/ lower-level outcomes
Output indicators – outputs/activities
Risk indicators – outputs /activities

24. 9. Complementary documentation
Complementary documentation allows you to:
communicate information that is not easily interpreted from the TOC conceptual graphic
share references to evidence that supports causal logic
identify external actors who are responsible for producing outcomes in the TOC
Explain and provide supporting evidence for assumptions and rationales

25. 10. Review annually, at minimum
Conduct a thorough review of the TOC annually through the life of an activity.
Content and activities undertaken will differ depending on the year of the review.
Purpose:
consider what has been learned;
what has changed, including the context;
consider new evidence since the previous review.

26. The TOC Product

27. The TOC Product
Conceptual diagram - explicitly displays the long-term goal, domains of change, incremental outcomes, assumptions, rationales, and outputs and shows the pathways that lead to the desired change. Metrics (indicators or other measures) for each component of the TOC - tell us how we will recognize achievement at each step in the pathway. Complementary documentation- communicates information not easily interpreted from the TOC diagram.

28. FFP Theory of Change Conceptual Model
a TOC conceptual graphic articulates the goal, domains of change, outcomes, assumptions, rationales, and key outputs, and shows clear pathways of change;

29. How do we know if the TOC is adequate?
A complete TOC diagram provides:
A communication tool to gain agreement among stakeholders about what defines success, what it takes to achieve it, and who will do what.
An outline of how interventions should be sequenced.
A monitoring tool to understand what factors may be impeding expected change.
A blueprint for evaluation that identifies metrics of success.
A visual representation of the expected change and how it will occur based on a clear and testable set of hypotheses.
When the model is plausible, feasible, and testable it generally can be considered adequate.
Plausible: It can be explained logically and follows a clear flow from the interventions that will spark change to the long-term goal.
Feasible: It identifies realistic means of initiating change (responsibilities of various stakeholders and intervention outputs).
Testable: It clearly outlines how change will be measured each step of the way.
Remember, a unique aspect of a TOC is that it can and should be modified –as we learn more about the operational context and conduct formative research during project implementation, there will be room for further improvement.
PLAUSIBLE
FEASIBLE
TESTABLE

30. TOC checklist
A tool for determining quality and completeness of TOCs for FFP DFSAs
In 2017, The TOPS Program and FFP collaborated to develop the TOC Checklist, a tool that allows TOC developers and reviewers to ascertain the quality and thoroughness of the diagrams and narrative. The checklist is a summary of FFP criteria outlined in document “USAID’S Office of Food for Peace Policy and Guidance for Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting for Development Food Security Activities”, and explained in detail in the TOPS TOC training materials. You can access the checklist in English and French at

31. Key Differences: Results Frameworks and TOC
TOC is developed using:
Backwards mapping
Rigorous causal analysis supported by evidence base
Rigorous attention to underlying assumptions
TOC not limited to those changes that we will directly address through programming
Identifies external efforts
TOC helps to prioritize optimal sequencing of interventions
There seems to be a lot of confusion about the difference between a TOC and a results framework. Some people claim that they are one in the same. In this course, we argue that results frameworks, at least to the extent that they have been designed and used within the development community for the past decade or so, are very different from theories of change.

32. Key Differences: Results Frameworks and TOC
A TOC CAN and SHOULD BE REVISED REGULARLY !