1. Interconnection and energy transitions
Caroline Lee, Energy Policy Analyst
6 December 2018 – COP24 – China Pavilion

2. IEA at COP24 – Key messages
Paris Agreement goals are slipping out of reach
IEA estimates energy-related CO2 emissions will reach an historic high in 2018
To meet Paris goals, CO2 emissions need to peak around 2020 and enter a steep decline
The IEA Family of countries now covers almost 75% of global energy demand, so is ideally placed to help countries meet their energy objectives
The IEA offers data, analysis and solutions across “All Fuels and All Technologies”
IEA analysis is key to tracking progress of global energy transitions
Assessing progress on energy transitions, under the Talanoa Dialogue and beyond
Helping to drive further NDC ambition
Paris Agreement goals are slipping out of reach
Energy related CO2 emissions are estimated to reach an historic high in 2018
In IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario, compatible with meeting Paris Agreement goals in addition to significantly reducing air pollution and achieving universal access to modern energy, energy-related CO2 emissions peak around 2020, which is just around the corner.
IEA is the key “all of energy” agency for solutions, analysis and data to help countries implement their climate commitments in the energy space. Implementation of the Paris Agreement is a key priority in 2018 given the deadline of finalizing the Paris rulebook this year.
Energy transitions involve all fuels and technologies; IEA takes this holistic approach of the energy sector
Solutions: IEA provides energy policy guidance, capacity building and training, and promotes lesson-sharing across countries
Analysis: IEA’s rigorous analysis sheds light on pathways and scenarios for meeting climate and energy goals
Data: IEA has unparalleled global energy data for tracking the energy transition
The Clean Energy Transitions Programme, a 30 EUR million multi-year initiative launched in 2017, leverages IEA’s expertise to accelerate “real world” energy transitions, particularly in major emerging economies
IEA’s analysis can play a valuable role in informing collective assessment of progress of energy transitions, including under the 2018 Talanoa Dialogue and future global stocktake processes
Specifically, IEA can help countries assess progress in the low carbon energy transition and set 2030 milestones that meet long-term energy, climate, and development goals
The Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2018 online platform assesses energy technologies and sectors critical for energy transitions, both to date and compared to IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario
The Global Energy and CO2 Status Report and Energy Efficiency Indicators assesses progress made to date along key indicators of energy transitions

3. Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2018 (TCEP): Historical data basis
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Gt CO2 35 30
CO2 emissions
Increase in 2017 25 20 15 10
The IEA estimates a rise in global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2018.
This follows a rise last year in 2017 (to 32.5 Gt), after a stall in emissions growth between
This is troubling news: we are moving in the exact opposite direction in which we should be heading. 5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Global emissions are set to increase in again
The world is not moving towards the Paris goals, but rather away from them

4. SDS as a benchmark on where do we want to go
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Gt CO2 36
Central Scenario
Efficiency
Renewables
Fuel-switching
CCS
Other
Nuclear
44%
36% 2% 6% 9% 32
Sustainable
Development Scenario 28 24
In addition to moving to an all-digital platform, this year’s TCEP features a few major enhancements.
First, we are now using the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) as the benchmark scenario (previously the ETP 2DS).
The Sustainable Development Scenario depicts a rapid but achievable transformation of the energy sector.
Meeting long-term sustainability goals requires an ambitious combination of more energy efficient buildings, industry and transport, and more renewables and flexibility in power.
Based on existing and announced policies – as described in the IEA New Policies Scenario – the world is not on course to achieve these goals.
We use SDS as a benchmark for TCEP to track progress of different sectors and technologies 20 16
2010
2020
2030
2040
A wide variety of technologies are necessary to meet goals,
with energy efficiency and renewables playing lead roles 2

5. TCEP 2018: How energy sectors can contribute to the decarbonisation effort
Cumulative emissions reductions between 2017 and 2040 for each sector in the SDS compared to the NPS, including indirect emissions.
How energy sectors can contribute to the decarbonisation effort
Decarbonising the power sector is a fundamental step to reducing emissions.
It must be complemented by unprecedented efficiency improvements in buildings, addressing growing demand from cooling, heating and powered devices.
The transport sector will need to undergo a major transformation, including shifts from oil to electricity to reap the benefits of clean power generation. 
Industry processes that can't be easily electrified must cut emissions through efficiency, aggressive innovation and carbon capture.
And energy integration technologies will become increasingly important as shares of variable renewables rise.

6. Total generation and curtailment of wind and solar PV in China
The curtailment of wind and solar PV has been increasing in recent years, as infrastructure
and market reforms have struggled to keep pace with wind and solar PV’s rapid expansion

7. Power generation mix by region and net electricity trade flows
The Northwest and Northeast regions become the major exporters of electricity, supplying
a mix of renewables-based and fossil-fuelled generation to the East and Central regions
Continued expansion of the UHV networks enables the trade of massive amounts of electricity between regions in China.
In the Northwest region, the ability to transmit 250 GW of power supports the rapid expansion of wind and solar PV capacity and helps to meet electricity demand growth in the East and Central regions. By 2040, the Northwest region exports one-third of its annual generation, helping meet around 10% of demand
in both the East and Central regions (Figure 13.23). In doing so, the Northwest region provides relatively clean energy to densely populated areas. The import of this electricity in the East, where much of the population of China lives, helps reduce the reliance on coalfired
generation, lowering primary pollutant emissions in the region and improving health
outcomes (Figure 13.24). The Central region also plays an important role in the balancing
of electricity across China, taking advantage of the flexibility of hydropower to import large
amounts of power from the Northwest region while exporting power to the East.

8. Merit order curve based on power plant operating costs, 2030
Competitive spot markets can bring efficiency gains to the operation of systems, favouring the most efficient sources

9. supported by ANALYSIS and built on DATA
The IEA works around the world to support
accelerated clean energy transitions that are
enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS
supported by ANALYSIS
and built on DATA
Speaking points
Meeting the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement requires an accelerated clean energy transition. Individually and collectively, countries need to define and implement policies that achieve this.
The IEA is ready to support this, as the leading provider of data, analysis, and solutions for the global energy transition
Real-world solutions are needed to support successful policy implementation and outcomes
The IEA supports countries through policy guidance, works with countries to improve energy efficiency policies, and enables over 6000 global experts to work together through global technology collaboration programmes
Analysis helps decipher challenges and opportunities, sheds light on long-term pathways
The IEA is a top global energy modeller, providing insights into factors that can influence emissions pathways and technologies to enable clean energy transitions.
Data is an essential foundation for all countries
The IEA produces global energy statistics, guidance and manuals for data and indicators, and delivers training to statisticians from around the world.
The IEA is significantly scaling up its work with key emerging economies to accelerate their energy transitions, through its Clean Energy Transitions Programme.