1. Space Weather: Science, Effects, Forecasts and Services.
* What is Space Weather?
- Solar drivers
* What are the effects?
- Technological systems
- Human health
* How to forecast it?
- Observations
- AI methods
* Services
- International Programs
- Vendors
* Today’s Space Weather
Henrik Lundstedt
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division, Lund

2. So let’s start with the Sun
What is Space Weather?
Space weather refers to conditions in space, that can
influence technological systems, and can endanger
human life or health.
In Lund we focuse on conditions driven by the Sun.
So let’s start with the Sun

3. The Sun Diameter: Mass: Density: The Sun consists of: Temperature:km
(109 times Earth)
Mass:
1.99x1030 kg
( times Earth)
Density:
Core 151x103 kg/m-3
Average 1.41x103 kg/m-3
The Sun consists of:
H (about 90%)
Helium (about. 10%)
C,N,O (about 0.1%)
Temperature:
Core 15 milj
Photosphere 5800 K
Chromosphere K
Corona 1-30 milj K
4 protons --> He + 2 positrons + 2 neutrinos + 2 fotons (26.2 MeV)

4. Solar waves tell us about the Sun’s interior
and show us the solar magnetic activity dynamo.

5. The solar magnetic field emerges thru the surface, and produces sunspots and regions of complex magnetic.

6. The Energy in the Twisted Magnetic Field can be Released and Enormous Explosions occur
-Solar Flares
An X20 X-ray solar flare (EIT/SOHO) April2, 2001

7. Coronal Mass Ejections as Seen by SOHO
Halo CME of July 14, 2000
CMEs are the ways the Sun gets rid of its magnetic field globally in huge loops.
Largest Mass Ejected: billion tons
Frequency of Occurrence: 3.5/day events (solar activity max), 0.2 events/day (min)
Speed: km/s

8. Detecting CMEs in Radio Wavelengths

9. Long-Term Solar Cycle Activity
as described by the Sunspot Number

10. Low Solar Activity - Cold Climate High Solar Activity -Warm Climate?
Cold climate inEngland and
Holland during Little Ice Age.
Warm climate during
Middle Ages.
Solar activity during 5000 years from C14
measurements in old trees.

11. A Possible Explanation of the Solar Activity and Climate Relation
Many sunspots -
high solar activity
Cosmic ray flux
decreases
Less clouds are formed
Higher temperature -
warmer climate
The solar magnetic flux has
increased with 131%
since 1901.

12. Solar Evolution and Climate Global warming, Little Ice Age or Full Ice Age?
The Sun’s coronal magnetic field has increased with 131% since 1901.
The Sun’s brightness increases (fusion)
with 1% per 150 million years (2 degrees).
The coupling between the large-scale magnetic field (11year cycle) and small small-scale might explain the Maunder minimum.

13. Besides climate changes, the Sun is also causing aurora
In Stockholm July 15-16, 2000
In Italy April 6-7 and July 15-16, 200

14. Space Weather Effects on Technological Systems

15. Satellite anomalies of July 14-16, 2000 event
The proton event caused
problems for ACE,
SOHO, Ørsted,
Japanese X-ray satellite,
star trackers on board
commercial satellites.
Proton flux (pfu) > 10 MeV,
24000 pfu (July 15, UT). Third largest!
Largest pfu, (March 24, 1991). Second pfu
(October 20, 1989).

16. Radiation risks and aviation
The radiation exposure is doubled every 2.2 km.
Solar flares can increase the radiation by times.
Pilots get cancer more often than average.
One out of 300 passengers on a high latitude flight develops cancer after an intense proton event.
The intensive solarflare of
April 2, 2001, which caused
major communication problems
also made Continental
Airlines to change
their route between
Hong Kong and New York.
New EU law:
Pregnant (aircrew) should
not be exposed to more
than 1 (1-6) millisievert/year
We in Lund collaborate
with SSI and KI to develop
forecasts of radiation doses.

17. Power Systems are effected at times of geomagnetic storms
This severe electrojet caused the
failure of Quebec’s power system March 13-14, 1989.
One of the generators of OKG’s (Sydkraft’s) nuclear plants was heated due to the geomagnetically induced current in March
A damaged transformer
(e.g. July 15-16, 2001).

18. How to forecast the Space Weather and Effects?
We need real-time data
Warnings
Forecasts
Solar observations with
SOHO give warnings 1-3
Days ahead.
A replacement of SOHO
after 2003 is needed.
A solar radar could play an
important role.
Solar wind observations with
ACE give accurate forecasts
1-3 hours ahead.

19. We need international coorporation and programs
National Space Weather Program started in USA 1995
and in ”Living with a Star”.
ESA initiated ”ESA Space Weather Program” 1997
1999. We in Lund are a member of the consortium
led byAlcatel Space Industry.
International LWS
RWCs of ISES

20. We need nonlinear fast forecast methods
Supervised neural network
Recurrent neural network
Unsupervised neural network

21. Workshops in Lund
AI Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics (1993, 1997)
Next workshop - An Extended ”Nordic GIC Meeting” 2001 October?

23. Updated in real-time and written in Java

24. Sun Stoplight Applet

25. Earth Stoplight Applet

26. Space Weather Vendors
Exist already in e.g. USA and Sweden

27. Today’s Space Weather