1. GIFS-TIGGE project Richard Swinbank, and Young-Youn Park,
with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group,
THORPEX IPO and other colleagues
Presentation for Africa RC meeting, April 2012

2. TIGGE and GIFS TIGGE GIFS developments TIGGE archive TIGGE research
Examples of products based on TIGGE data
Building links with SWFDP

3. TIGGE project
Since 2006, TIGGE has been collecting ensemble predictions from 10 of the leading global forecast centres.
TIGGE data are made available after a 48-hour delay, to support research on probabilistic forecasting methods, predictability and dynamical processes.
50+ TIGGE articles published in scientific literature.

4. NB. Now includes statistics from CMA
TIGGE Archive Usage
NB. Now includes statistics from CMA

5. TIGGE Research
Following the successful establishment of the TIGGE dataset, the main focus of the GIFS-TIGGE working group has shifted towards research on ensemble forecasting. Particular topics of interest include:
a posteriori calibration of ensemble forecasts (bias correction, downscaling, etc.);
combination of ensembles produced by multiple models;
research on and development of probabilistic forecast products.
TIGGE data is also invaluable as a resource for a wide range of research projects, for example: comparing different Ensemble prediction systems; research on dynamical processes and predictability.
Currently, over 50 articles related to TIGGE have been published in the scientific literature.

6. Towards a Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
Our objective is to realise the benefits of THORPEX research by developing and evaluating probabilistic products.
Focus on risks of high-impact weather events – unlikely but potentially catastrophic.
First step: exchange of real-time tropical cyclone predictions using “Cyclone XML” format.
Followed by development of products based on gridded forecasts of heavy precipitation & strong wind.
Piers Buchanan,
Met Office

7. Example Met Office products for a named storm MOGREPS-15: Ma-On, 12Z Fri 14th July 2011
Left hand plot: 24 ensemble tracks
Middle plot: strike probability – probability that the storm will be within 75 miles within the next 15 days.
Right hand plot: MOGREPS ensemble mean (blue), control (cyan), previous observations (red) and deterministic track (green)

8. TOMAS: MOGREPS-15 12Z North Atlantic forecast on Wednesday 27th October 2010.

9. Use of MOGREPS-15 products in SWFDDP

11. Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
+ 8-day forecast
Mio Matsueda 11

12. Steps to progress use of GIFS products in SWFDP
Progress so far
TC products based on CXML data; prototype products based on gridded TIGGE forecast data
Provided documentation of prototype products
GIFS-TIGGE WG co-chair attended recent SWFDP SG meeting
Seek feedback from RSMCs coordinating SWFDP regional subprojects
Future
Develop real-time products for SWFDP based on preferred prototypes, e.g., Multi-model versions of TC products; near real-time versions of highest priority rainfall products.
Supply products to SWFDP regional websites
Provide training via SWFDP

13. The Weather component includes:
GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) is a 3-year EU-funded FP7 project starting September 2011.
The Weather component includes:
improving access to TIGGE data at ECMWF.
developing and demonstrating forecast products.
Weather participants: ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France, KIT
Involve other TIGGE partners in planning development & demonstration of products in conjunction with SWFDP.
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011

14. TIGGE website: http://tigge.ecmwf.int
Summary
Since October 2006, the TIGGE archive has been accumulating regular ensemble forecasts from leading global NWP centres.
The TIGGE data is available for research after a 48-hour delay, and has been used for a wide range of scientific research studies.
Various products have been developed to use the tropical cyclone forecast data exchanged using CXML, and, more recently, prototype gridded products from the TIGGE data set.
The SWFDP regional centres will assess the prototype GIFS products for possible inclusion as real-time products on the SWFDP websites, and we will collaborate with them on implementation & evaluation.
TIGGE website: