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The Explosion of Digital Content and TV
Mike Grant, Partner 2 November 2009
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Growth in content consumption is obvious across the media sector
The evolution of digital broadcast distribution systems have supported rapid expansion in TV content over 5000 TV channels now available in Europe, increasing by ~200 annually satellite is currently the leading means of receiving digital TV advent of HDTV (and in future perhaps 3DTV) will drive demand for further capacity Broadband underpins user access to content number of European homes with broadband is similar to number with digital TV (~50% of all homes) capacity of terrestrial broadband networks is increasing fast distribution of video content over broadband is an increasingly viable alternative to traditional TV distribution systems Number of HD channels in Europe Unweighted mean downstream speed / price for residential fixed broadband access in Europe Source: SES, 2009, Analysys Mason, 2009
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Exponential rises in Internet traffic continues
Mobile (UK) Fixed (Netherlands) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Oct 2007 Nov 2007 Dec 2007 Jan 2008 Feb 2008 Mar 2008 Apr 2008 Relative traffic growth Total growth Uplink Downlink 105% Source: Minnesota Internet Traffic Studies (MINTS) Source: Hutchison 3G UK Ltd
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The industry faces three major challenges
An explosion of content generation Professional Professional Online Online Personal Personal Content Content content content UGC UGC media media production production Competition in content aggregation Content Content aggregation aggregation Distribution Distribution Fragmentation of consumption STBs STBs PVRs PVRs Media servers Media servers Devices and Devices and consumption consumption
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Time spent on TV and Internet by Americans
PC/laptop Internet usage continues to grow as video consumption becomes more viable Online video consumption On average, UK users spend around 60 minutes per day online 27 million users downloaded 3.2 billion videos in June 2008 average monthly DSL traffic per user rose from 2.4GBin Q to 4.1GBin Q according to the Carphone Warehouse online advertising grew 40% in 2007 to GBP2.8bn, 19% of the total market Time spent online by the US Internet community grew 6% YoY in 2008 78% of downloaded videos in Dec 2008 Watching videos is a prime activity on the Internet: Google served 5.9bn videos to 150 million US users French Internet users watch in average 88 online videos per month However, users are generally watching for only limited periods – “snacking” Online video viewing habits Time spent on TV and Internet by Americans Germany USA Number of videos per person per day 3.9 3.2 Ave viewing time per video 4.1 mins 3.2 mins Total viewing time per person per day 16.2 mins 10.2 mins +4% y-o-y +6% y-o-y Source: Ofcom, comscore, Nielsen, 2008, company reports Source: Comscore November and December 2008
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... but overall TV consumption remains strong
TV viewing figures remain robust Users are adopting new services TV viewing benchmarks Source: Ofcom Content watched by US users who stream video Virgin Media VoD usage 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% TV Movie theatre Portable DVD Mobile phone % of Viewers Feb 2008 2007 10 20 30 40 50 60 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% Average VoD views per user pcm views pcm (millions) VoD users (% of TV subs) Source: Virgin Media
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… and users still engage most in front of the TV
Main reasons for using media platforms 90% Relaxation 30% Relaxation 3% Relaxation Source: Ofcom Media Literacy report May A survey of UK users
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Web technology is set to transform the TV proposition
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Initiatives such as Project Canvas will offer a new level of experience to TV viewers
Draft Project Canvas service structure Source: the BBC/ Register
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Project Canvas indicative screenshots:
Managing content choices and discovery on “Web TV” will be key competitive differentiators Project Canvas indicative screenshots: Source: BBC
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The transitioning from dedicated value chains to horizontal platforms will accelerate
Games Newspapers Broadcast TV Radio Dedicated production, aggregation, distribution and consumption functions Rights owners Production Aggregation Distribution Consumption Traditional Future evolution Multiplatform production, aggregation, distribution and consumption functions
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Adapting to change will be key to success
Likely to be valued by the market Those who retain ownership of rights to premium content Device manufacturers who control form factor and function and are able to create premium aggregation experiences High street experience and device distributors Content aggregators who offer a compelling search and discovery experience that consumers want Likely to be disintermediated or commoditised Players with only content transport assets Broadcasters with linear only propositions Players reliant on sales of physical media Disney recognise this and are reshaping their business. As barriers to entry fall, the media industry is likely to shrink in size. Those who adapt to the new world will prosper
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Analysys Mason Limited Bush House, North West Wing Aldwych
Dr Mike Grant Analysys Mason Limited Bush House, North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ, UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0)
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