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Lorna Miller Steve Eley
BioThreat or BioRisk? Lorna Miller Steve Eley
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Threat Assessment Systems Capability Threat Hazard Intent
© Crown Copyright Dstl 2010
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Risk Assessment Risk Description, e.g., a dispersal of a BW agent over an operating base Outcome Description, e.g., 100 Dead, up to symptomatic, 25 km2 contaminated NO SYNTHETIC MATHEMATICS! © Crown Copyright Dstl 2010
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Plausibility Matrix Likelihood Score Vulnerability Score 5 MH H 4 M 3
ML 2 L 1 Low Medium High Vulnerability Score Key L Low ML Medium Low M Medium MH Medium High H High © Crown Copyright Dstl 2010
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Impact Matrix Dimension Impact 10000 100 000 Total re-organization
Catastrophic 10000 Total re-organization £1bn Failed Strategy Significant 1000 10 000 Moderate 100 1 000 Minor 10 Limited 1 Mild inconvenience £ Impeded Operation Fatalities Casualties Disruption Financial Operational Dimension © Crown Copyright Dstl 2010
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Risk Matrix Impact Plausibility Catastrophic Significant Moderate
Minor Limited Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High Plausibility Risk Value Very High High Medium Low © Crown Copyright Dstl 2010
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Urgency index Threat 5 4 3 2 1 Low Medium High Very High Risk
Mitigation critical Mitigation vital Mitigation important Mitigation useful © Crown Copyright Dstl 2010
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Personnel Preparation
Physical Preparation Vulnerability Likelihood Plausibility Fatalities Casualties Impact Risk R&D Policy Risk management Operational Mitigated Risk © Crown Copyright Dstl 2010
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