1. Corn Outlook Industry Outlook Conference West Des Moines, Iowa
Apr. 22, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.4
91.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.8
165.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,925
13,938
Beg. Stocks
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,331
Imports 28 29
162 35 25
Total Supply
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,781
15,294
Feed & Residual
4,795
4,557
4,335
5,300
5,400
Ethanol
5,019
5,000
4,648
Food, Seed, & Other
1,407
1,428
1,396
1,400
1,430
Exports
1,834
1,543
731
1,750
1,550
Total Use
13,055
12,528
11,111
13,450
13,380
Ending Stocks
1,914
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.60
3.90
Source: USDA-WAOB for 2 2

3. Corn Acreage Top: 2014 Intended acres Bottom: Change from 2013
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

4. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Time between Survey & Planting
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Planting Progress
Source: USDA-NASS

7. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Advance Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Grind for Ethanol

13. Current Corn Futures
4.78
4.72
4.68
Source: CME Group, 4/18/2014

14. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

15. 2013/14 Crop Prices

16. 2014/15 Crop Margins

17. Source: droughtmonitor.unl.edu

18. 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC

19. 3-Month Precipitation Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC

20. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good
Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?
Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term
Dry soils to start, but El Niño watch for summer
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
Unofficial
Futures
(4/18/14)
Corn
$4.60
$3.90
$4.68
$4.78
Soybeans
$13.00
$9.65
$13.21
$12.07

21. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: