1. Crop Market Outlook Illinois Farm Bureau Commodities Conference
Normal, IL
July 30, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.4
91.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.8
165.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,925
13,860
Beg. Stocks
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,246
Imports 28 29
162 35 30
Total Supply
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,781
15,136
Feed & Residual
4,795
4,557
4,329
5,175
5,200
Ethanol
5,019
5,000
4,648
5,075
5,050
Food, Seed, & Other
1,407
1,428
1,403
1,385
Exports
1,834
1,543
731
1,900
1,700
Total Use
13,055
12,528
11,111
13,535
13,335
Ending Stocks
1,801
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.45
4.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.5
84.8
Yield
(bu./acre)
43.5
41.9
39.8
43.3
45.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,289
3,800
Beg. Stocks
151
215
169
141
140
Imports 14 16 36 85 15
Total Supply
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,514
3,955
Crush
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,725
1,755
Seed & Residual
130 88 90 29
111
Exports
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,620
1,675
Total Use
3,280
3,155
3,099
3,374
3,541
Ending Stocks
415
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
11.30
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Acreage Top: 2014 acres Bottom: Change from 2013
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Acreage Top: 2014 acres Bottom: Change from 2013
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Principal Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Corn Yield from Crop Conditions

9. Soy Yield from Crop Conditions

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

13. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

14. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Current Corn Futures
4.00
3.64
Source: CME Group, 7/18/2014

21. Current Soybean Futures
10.57
10.59
Source: CME Group, 7/18/2014

22. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

23. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

24. 2013/14 Crop Prices

25. 2014/15 Crop Margins

26. 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC

27. 3-Month Precipitation Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC

28. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Record acreage for soybeans, much larger shift than expected
Still potential for both record corn and soybean crops
Markets are adjusting downward to absorb projected supplies
El Niño watch for summer continues
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
Futures
(7/18/14)
Corn
$4.45
$4.00
$4.46
$3.64
Soybeans
$13.00
$10.50
$13.01
$10.57

29. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: