1. Drought, Grain Marketing, and Risk Management
Clear Lake Bank & Trust Ag. Meeting
Garner, Iowa
Dec. 6, 2012
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
96.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
122.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
10,725
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
988
Imports 14 8 28 29
100
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,515
11,814
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,795
4,547
4,150
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,426
1,367
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,834
1,543
1,150
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,167
Ending Stocks
647
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.60
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
2,971
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,160
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,560
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 91
115
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,345
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,021
Ending Stocks
140
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Prices

5. Projected Corn Yields

6. Projected Soybean Yields

7. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Weather
Source: USDC and USDA 9 9

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Higher feed costs have led to lower meat production projections.
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Corn Grind for Ethanol

16. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

17. Current Corn Futures
6.91
6.07
5.63
Source: CME Group, 12/5/2012

18. Current Soybean Futures
13.92
12.67
12.27
Source: CME Group, 12/5/2012

19. Early Prices for 2013 Crops
2013 crop prices are still strong to entice acreage to remain in production.

20. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
We brought back a lot of acres in Can we hold them in 2013?
Source: USDA-NASS

21. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres
Cotton will likely give up acreage again. But with crop prices strong across the board, the acreage battle could be interesting in 2013.
Source: USDA-NASS

22. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again.
Top: Planted in 2012
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

24. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Biofuel and export strength
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
Futures
(12/5/12)
2013/14
Corn
$7.60
$6.91
$6.07
Soybeans
$14.90
$13.92
$12.67
Risk management
Crop insurance
Price protection

25. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: