1. 2015 Crop Market Outlook Pioneer Grower Meetings
Sioux Center and Granville, Iowa
Mar. 2, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
89.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
166.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,595
Beg. Stocks
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,827
Imports 29
160 36 25
Total Supply
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,472
15,447
Feed & Residual
4,557
4,315
5,036
5,250
5,275
Ethanol
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,225
Food, Seed, & Other
1,428
1,397
1,367
1,395
1,410
Exports
1,543
730
1,917
1,750
1,850
Total Use
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,645
13,760
Ending Stocks
1,687
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.65
3.50
Sources: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2015 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.7
83.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.8
46.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,969
3,800
Beg. Stocks
215
169
141 92
385
Imports 16 41 72 25 20
Total Supply
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,086
4,205
Crush
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,795
1,840
Seed & Residual 88
105 97
116
Exports
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,790
1,820
Total Use
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,701
3,775
Ending Stocks
430
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.20
9.00
Sources: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2015 3 3

4. Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

16. Global Crude Oil Market
Source: EIA

17. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

18. Corn Grind for Ethanol

19. Ethanol Stocks

20. Current Corn Futures
3.98
3.75
Source: CME Group, 2/27/2015

21. Current Soybean Futures
10.18
9.63
Source: CME Group, 2/27/2015

22. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

23. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

24. 2014/15 Crop Margins

25. 2015/16 Crop Margins

26. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Record corn and soybean crops, but also record demand
Markets are in a holding pattern, waiting for news
Watching South American crop progress
Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
Futures
(2/27/15)
2015/16
Corn
$4.46
$3.65
$3.75
$3.98
Soybeans
$13.00
$10.20
$10.18
$9.63

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: