1. Recent Trends in Virginia’s Economy
September 14, 2016

2. Total Nonfarm Employment
Trends begin to diverge in late 2011
Really diverge in 2013
VA accelerates in 2014
Breaks through in 2015 as US begins to decclerate.
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

3. Total Nonfarm Employment
This is what it looked like in November 2015 when the Gov’s revenue forecast was generated
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

4. Total Nonfarm Employment
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

5. Private Average Hourly Wages
VA’s wage growth exceeded the US for most of 2010 and 2011.
Fell back to the national trend in 2012.
Lagged behind in 2013 and 2014.
Accelerated past US in 2015
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

6. Private Average Hourly Wages
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

7. Private Average Hourly Wages
So, what caused this decceleration?
Let’s do a drill down. What’s the largest employment sector in VA?
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

8. VA Employment 2015 Top 6 comprise 77% of employment
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9. Government Employment
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

10. Government Employment
2013:M7 to 2016:M7
Between July 2013 and July 2016, total government declined by 1,000 jobs in VA.
But:
Federal increased 2,000 jobs
State increased by 3,000 jobs
Local declined by 6,000 jobs
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11. Government Employment
2015:M7 to 2016:M7
Between July 2015 and July 2016, total government declined by 2,000 jobs in VA.
But:
Federal increased 2,000 jobs
State was level
Local declined by 4,000 jobs
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

12. Professional and Business Services Employment
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

13. Prof. and Bus. Serv. Employment
2013:M7 to 2016:M7
Between July 2013 and July 2016, Professional and Business Services increased by 45,000 jobs in VA.
But:
Professional and Technical Services increased 15,000 jobs
Management of Companies and Enterprises was flat
Administrative and Waste Services increased by 30,000 jobs
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

14. Prof. and Bus. Serv. Employment
2015:M7 to 2016:M7
Between July 2015 and July 2016, Professional and Business Services increased by 24,000 jobs in VA.
But:
Professional and Technical Services increased 11,000 jobs
Management of Companies and Enterprises was flat
Administrative and Waste Services increased by 13,000 jobs
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

15. Education and Healthcare Employment
Between July of 2013 and July 2016 up 37,000 jobs
Between July of 2015 and July 2016 up 15,000 jobs
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16. Retail Trade Employment
Between July of 2013 and July 2016 up 21,000 jobs
Between July of 2015 and July 2016 up 13,000 jobs
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

17. Leisure and Hospitality Employment
Between July of 2013 and July 2016 up 25,000 jobs
Between July of 2015 and July 2016 up 4,000 jobs
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18. Manufacturing Employment
Between July of 2013 and July 2016 down 1,000 jobs
Between July of 2015 and July 2016 down 4,000 jobs
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19. Unemployment Rate
In July 2016 unemployment was 5.1% in US and 4.0% in VA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20. Labor Force Participation: 16 plus
In July 2016 labor force participation was 63.4% in US and 64.0% in VA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

21. Labor Force Participation: 16 plus
A little deceptive – pig in the python
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

22. US Labor Force Participation:
18 to 24
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

23. US Labor Force Participation:
24 to 54
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

24. US Labor Force Participation:
55 to 64
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

25. US Labor Force Participation:
65 plus
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

26. In sum Virginia out-performed the national norm during the recession.
We have under-performed the national norm during the recovery and were particularly affected by the 2013 federal sequester.
Throughout 2015 and into the first quarter of 2016, our employment growth was accelerating, while the national trend was decelerating.
Starting in the second quarter of 2016, we collapsed back to the national norm

27. In sum
Statewide employment in Government (mostly driven by Local), Leisure and Hospitality, and manufacturing are now lagging the national norm.
Statewide employment in Retail Trade is leading the national norm.
Statewide employment in Professional and Business Services and Education and Healthcare were leading the national norm, but have recently collapsed to the national trend.

28. In sum
Statewide unemployment remains a parentage point below the national average.
Where nationally, labor force participation levels have stabilized and now appear to be rising, in Virginia the continue to fall.
This continued decline in labor force participation is responsible for much of our apparent decline in the unemployment rate.

29. Thank You Dr. A. Fletcher Mangum President 804-346-8446