1. MAJOR ERUPTION OF MEXICO’S POPOCATEPETL COULD BE EMINENT Friday, April 20, 2012
More lectures at Disasters Supercourse -
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,
University of North Carolina, USA

2. GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

3. ACTIVE VOLCANOES

4. MEXICO’S POPOCATEPETL: APRIL 17, 2012

5. MEXICO’S POPOCATEPETL: APRIL 20

6. An estimated 5 million people in the states of Mexico, Puebla, and Morelos would be affected by a major eruption of the ,778 ft Popocatepetl

7. POPOCATEPL: STATES OF MEXICO, PUEBLA, AND MORELOS AT RISK

8. CAUSES OF RISK LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
VOLCANIC ASH
LAVA FLOWS
CASE HISTORIES
LAHARS
TOXIC GASES

9. Mexican President Felipe Calderon said that comprehensive emergency contingency plans are ready to be implemented the minute evacuations are ordered.

10. AT PRESENT, THE WARNING IS AT STAGE 5 OF A 7-STATE WARNING SYSTEM

11. TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR VOLCANOES
A PRIMER

12. NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICAL
FLOODS
GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY
HURRICANES
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY
TYPHOONS
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
WILDFIRES

13. VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
VERTICAL PLUME
ASH AND TEPHRA
LATERAL BLAST
PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS, BURSTS, AND FLOWS

14. VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
LAVA FLOWS
LAHARS
EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)
“VOLCANIC WINTER”

15. YOU CAN’T OUTRUN OR OUT MANEUVER: ASH AND TEPHRA, LATERAL BLASTS, PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS, BURSTS, AND FLOWS, LAHARS, LAVA FLOWS

16. MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES AND WARNING SYSTEMS ARE A VITAL PART OF THE DECISION TO EVACUATE, OR NOT.

17. MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES.

18. KNOWING THE ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO IS A VITAL PART OF THE ART AND SCIENCE OF INTELLIGENT EVACUATION.

19. SUCCESSFUL EVACUATION BEFORE A FULL SCALE ERUPTION OF POPOCATEPETL COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH FOR MILLIONS.

20. WHEN YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, OR YOU ARE UNABLE TO EVACUATE, THE ODDS FOR SURVIVAL ARE LOWER THAN WHEN YOU EVACUATE