1. Modeling transport demand pathways
Transport sector decarbonisation in the context of a global model
Modeling transport demand pathways
Marianna Rottoli
PhD candidate
3rd July 2018

2. The EDGE-REMIND framework (1)
REgionalized Model of INvestments and Development
Constant Elasticity of Substitution function
EDGE
Energy Demand GEnerators

3. The EDGE-REMIND framework (2)
EDGE-Transport
Energy Services:
Mobility needs
pkm and tkm
Final energy:
Fuel needs
Joule

4. Implementation Collaboration with the IAM GCAM transport team
1. Replicate and adapt GCAM transport system
GCAM: Global Change Assessment Model
PNNL: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
2. Focus on Europe
3. Further explore behaviour and society (e.g. split into urban-rural population)

5. Transport sector
Logit functions: sets the shares of competitive alternatives, depending mainly on price
GCAM documentation website:
Price=Price of the technology+Value of time

6. LOGIT key parameters S share of the alternative
SW share weight of the alternative
λ logit exponent
i alternative
r region
t time step

7. Category and Sub-Category
Model structure
Energy Services
Final Energy
Sub-Category
Category
Category and Sub-Category SW λ
Income elasticity
Price elasticity
Assumptions
Fuel price
Non-fuel price
Value of time
Historical demand
Intensity MJ/vkm
Data input
GDP
Population
Load factor
Shares
Prices
Pkm projections
EJ projections
Results

8. Results: 1. Replicate and adapt GCAM transport system

9. Results: 2. Focus on Europe

10. Conclusions Road demand should be carefully investigated
Non-linearity of the logit function results in differences in aggregate-disaggregate projections
Considering regions as a whole might lead to overestimate/underestimate each country contributions

11. Thank you

12. References
Context of the research: some numbers IEA, ETP-Energy Technology Perspectives, 2017 EEA, 2017, The EDGE-REMIND framework ADVANCE website Implementation Mishra et al., Transportation Module of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM): Model Documentation, 2013 GCAM documentation website

13. Logit formulation Logit function: preference shares i alternative
r region
t time
S share of the alternative
SW share weight of the alternative
λ logit exponent
α income elasticity
Β price elasticity
D demand
N population
σ base year (2005) calibration parameter
Y GDP_capita/GDP_capita_2005
W wage rate
Sp average door-to-door speed
δ cost associated with travel
Overall demand: regression
Price of a subsector
Value of time

14. Pictures Icons: the Noun Project Illustration Strokeicon Jonathan Li
Nikita Kozin
Illustration
Chris Philpot