1. An Overview of Asset Prices and Liquidity Indicators
Latin Macro Analysis
BRAZIL
Swiss Global Economics
An Overview of Asset Prices and Liquidity Indicators

2. Country Risk EMBI Plus, Sovereign Spread, b.p. 2600 2200 1800 1400
Announcement of IMF Package
2600
Rise in spread since April 12 th : 936 b.p.
Lula rises in the polls
2200
Beginning of Argentine Crisis
Argentina’s Default and Pesoification
1800
1400
1000
600
1-Jun-00
1-Oct-00
1-Dic-00
1-Dic-01
1-Ago-00
1-Feb-01
1-Abr-01
1-Jun-01
1-Ago-01
1-Oct-01
1-Feb-02
1-Abr-02
1-Jun-02
1-Ago-02
1-Oct-02

3. EMBI Bond Prices
12/04/02 = 100
Announcement of IMF Package
110
Beginning of Argentine Crisis
Argentina’s Default and Pesoification
Lula rises in the polls
100 90 80 70
Price decline since April 12 th: -20.5% 60 50
1-Jun-00
6-Feb-01
6-Jul-01
21-Jul-00
9-Sep-00
18-Dic-00
3-Dic-01
29-Oct-00
28-Mar-01
14-Oct-01
22-Ene-02
13-Mar-02
2-May-02
17-May-01
25-Ago-01
21-Jun-02
10-Ago-02
29-Sep-02
18-Nov-02

4. Nominal Exchange Rate (Reales per Dollar) 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.2 1.7
Announcement of IMF Package
Beginning of Argentine Crisis
Argentina’s Default and Pesoification
3.7
Lula rises in the polls
3. 59
3.2
2.7
2.2
56.1%
1.7
03-Ene-00
03-Mar-00
03-Jul-00
03-Ene-01
03-Mar-01
03-Jul-01
03-May-00
03-Sep-00
03-Nov-00
03-May-01
03-Sep-01
03-Nov-01
03-Ene-02
03-Mar-02
03-Jul-02
03-May-02
03-Sep-02
03-Nov-02

5. Yield Curve of the Real NDF Reales per Dollar 4.65 4.25 3.85 3.45 3.05
1-Mar-02
4.65
4.55
29-May-02
31-Jul-02
4.25
14-Oct-02
18-Nov-02
4.03
3.84
3.86
3.85
3.94
3.59
3.45
3.55
3.43
3.05
3.20
2.96
2.73
2.65
2.55
2.52
2.36
2.38
2.25
Spot
1 month
1 year

6. Interest Rates (Selic benchmark CB rate and CDI-Over interbank rate)
22%
21%
20%
Selic Rate
19%
18%
CDI-Over Rate
17%
16%
15%
14%
14/2/01
22/3/01
30/4/01
31/5/01
27/6/01
24/7/01
21/8/01
18/9/01
24/1/02
22/2/02
1/4/02
6/5/02
3/6/02
1/7/02
26/7/02
22/8/02
18/9/02
15/10/01
27/11/01
27/12/01
15/10/02

7. Announcement of IMF Package
Interest Rates
(Selic benchmark CB rate, 180 and 360-day Interest Rate Swaps, in %)
Announcement of IMF Package 32 30
360-days 28 26
180-days 24 22
Selic 20 18 16
02-Jul-01
02-Ago-01
02-Sep-01
02-Oct-01
02-Nov-01
02-Dic-01
02-Ene-02
02-Feb-02
02-Mar-02
02-Jun-02
02-Jul-02
02-Abr-02
02-May-02
02-Ago-02
02-Sep-02
02-Oct-02
02-Nov-02

8. Country Risk and Interest rate
(C-Bond Spread in b.p. and 360-day Interest Rate Swap in %)
2400 35
interest rate 30
1900 25
C-Bond Spread
1400
Interest Rate 20
900 15
C-Bond spread
400 10
02-Ene-01
02-Jul-01
02-Jul-02
02-Mar-01
02-May-01
02-Sep-01
02-Nov-01
02-Ene-02
02-Mar-02
02-May-02
02-Sep-02
02-Nov-02

9. Stock Prices Bovespa Index 2-Ene-01 5-Feb-01 9-Mar-01 12-Abr-01
Announcement of IMF Package
7500
9500
11500
13500
15500
17500
19500
2-Ene-01
5-Feb-01
9-Mar-01
12-Abr-01
18-May-01
21-Jun-01
25-Jul-01
28-Ago-01
1-Oct-01
2-Nov-01
6-Dic-01
Lula rises in the polls
9900
Beginning of Argentine Crisis
Argentina’s Default and Pesoification
8900
7900
6900
In Reales
5900
In Reales
In Dollars
4900
3900
In Dollars
2900
1900
2-Jul-02
11-Ene-02
20-Mar-02
24-Abr-02
29-May-02
6-Ago-02
9-Sep-02
14-Feb-02
11-Oct-02
14-Nov-02

10. International Reserves of the C.B
(US$ millions; daily)
IMF disbursement US$ 3.0 billion
43000
IMF disbursement US$ 4.5 billion
IMF disbursement US$ billion
41000
39000
37000
35000
33000
repayment to IMF US$ 4.2 billion
31000
02-Ene-01
02-Mar-01
02-Jul-01
02-Jul-02
02-May-01
02-Sep-01
02-Nov-01
02-Ene-02
02-Mar-02
02-May-02
02-Sep-02
02-Nov-02

11. International Reserves of the CB
(US$ millions; monthly)
IMF disbursement of US$ 3.0 billion
45000
IMF disbursement of US$ 10.0 billion
International Reserves
IR excluing IMF credit
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
Dic-00
Feb-01
Abr-01
Jun-01
Dic-01
Ago-01
Oct-01
Feb-02
Abr-02
Jun-02
Ago-02

12. International Reserves / Monetary Base
Monthly
IMF disbursement of US$ 10.0 billion
IMF disbursement of US$ 3.0 billion
2.5
International Reserves
IR excluing IMF credit
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Dic-00
Feb-01
Abr-01
Jun-01
Ago-01
Oct-01
Dic-01
Feb-02
Abr-02
Jun-02
Ago-02

13. Auctions of Treasury Instruments
3-month Real denominated fixed rate T-Bills (LTN’s)
2000
22.0%
Amount auctioned = bids
Amount auctioned > bids
21.5%
21.0%
1600
rate
20.5%
20.0%
1200
19.5%
Millions of Reales
rate
19.0%
800
amount
18.5%
18.0%
400
17.5%
No bids
17.0%
16.5%
11-Jun-02
02-Jul-02
10-Jul-02
16-Jul-02
23-Jul-02
30-Jul-02
06-Ago-02
13-Ago-02
20-Ago-02
27-Ago-02
03-Sep-02
10-Sep-02
17-Sep-02
24-Sep-02
01-Oct-02
08-Oct-02
05-Nov-02

14. Auctions of Treasury Instruments
3-Month Selic Indexed T-Bills (LFT’s)
6000
2.0%
Amount auctioned > bids
2.0%
rate
5000
1.9%
1.9%
4000
1.8%
Millions of Reales
3000
1.8%
Rate
amount
1.7%
2000
1.7%
No bids
1.6%
1000
1.6%
1.5%
3-Sep-02
15-Oct-02
22-Oct-02
29-Oct-02
5-Nov-02
12-Nov-02
19-Nov-02

15. The Run from Investment Funds to Saving Deposits
In millions of R$
Net Flows to Investment Funds
Saving Deposits (Caderneta de Poupança)
10000
139000
Since 31st May: -R$ 62.2 billion
Since 31st May: R$ 19.0 billion
5000
136000
31st May: Marking to market of IF’s bonds
133000
-5000
130000
127000
-10000
124000
-15000
121000
-20000
31st May: Marking to market of IF’s bonds
118000
-25000
Ene-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Abr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Ago-02
Sep-02
2-Ene-02
2-Mar-02
2-Jul-02
2-May-02
2-Sep-02
2-Nov-02
Until 13 Nov

16. Deposits
Demand + Saving + Time, in millions of R$
31st May: Marking to market of IF’s bonds
330000
310000
290000
270000
250000
Since 31st May: R$ 46.2 billion
230000
2-Ene-01
2-Mar-01
2-Jul-01
2-Ene-02
2-Mar-02
2-Jul-02
2-May-01
2-Sep-01
2-Nov-01
2-May-02
2-Sep-02
2-Nov-02