1. Science Objectives contained in three categories
Summer THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts
Science Objectives contained in three categories
Increase predictability of high-impact weather associated with tropical cyclone (TC) formation and intensification over the western North Pacific
Assess data targeting for improvement of TC track forecasts
Examine processes associated with extratropical transition of TCs and downstream impacts

2. Operations summary Per Objective
NRL P-3 Missions
WC-130J Missions
DLR Falcon Missions

3. Data Targeting System Interactive web-based system
Developed by ECMWF in partnership with UK Met Office
Funded by EU and EUCOS as part of Eurorisk PREVIEW
Sensitive Area Predictions (SAPs)
Automatic submission of 5 fixed
areas
Up to 5 additional areas chosen
interactively
Flexible choice of targeting time
(t + 18 to 102 h)
and verification time
(t + 36 to 120 h)
Customised for T-PARC by Cristina Prates, David Richardson, Cihan Sahin 3

4. Data Targeting for Improved TC Track Prediction
Example of sensitive area predictions for six targeted data systems for the target time associated with TY Sinlaku at 0000 UTC 19 September 2008 and a verification time of 0000 UTC 21 September
Data Targeting System hosted at ECMWF

5. Targeting strategy: WC-130J - TC inner core
DOTSTAR – TC outer regions
DLR FALCON – Sensitive regions in large-scale environment
Enhanced IR MTSAT 0915 UTC 11 September 2008
WC-130J
DOTSTAR
DLR FALCON

6. Forecast track incorporating data from storm inner core
Forecast track incorporating data in outer storm and large-scale environment
Forecast track incorporating data from storm inner core
Track forecasts (12-h increments) from ECMWF model
Initial time 1200 UTC 11 September 2008
obs
cntrl
Harnisch and Weissmann 2010

7. NOGAPS Forecasts initialized at 1200 UTC 11 September 2008
Data Targeting: Remotely Sensed Data
CONTROL: Incorporates special AMV datasets from MTSAT (increased spatial resolution and 1-h time resolution)
RAPID-SCAN: Incorporates 15-min interval images
Incorporation of rapid scan imagery improves the medium-range forecasts
NOGAPS Forecasts initialized at 1200 UTC 11 September 2008
Berger et al. 2010

8. Best-track locations of TY Sinlaku (12-h increments) and periods in which aircraft missions were conducted in support of ET objectives

9. Standard deviation among ECMWF ensemble members increased downstream of the
transitioning typhoon. Also, considerable variability existed among forecast sequences of downstream development as defined by local eddy kinetic energy budget calculations
ET Time
Supplied by D. Anwender

10. Although ECMWF forecasts of the storm track and intensity were accurate, errors associated with the interaction of the decaying TC and the midlatitude circulation into which it was moving contributed to large errors in downstream development as defined by eddy kinetic energy over the central North Pacific (CPAC).

11. T-PARC-related PDP topics
The effects of moist processes on tropical circulation systems
Required increase in basic understanding
Required increase in model capabilities
Dependence on various parameterizations
Sensitivities to representation of microphysical processes
Resolution
Increase in understanding of the interactions among scales (cloud, mesoscale, synoptic scale) and the impact on predictability
Interface with YOTC
Tropical circulation systems in global operational numerical forecast systems
Model climatology
Frequency
Location
Structure
Evolution
Relation to tropical cyclone formation
Verification
Probabilistic forecasts
Hits, misses, false alarms
Object oriented
Non-developing systems versus developing circulations

12. T-PARC-related PDP topics
Tropical circulation systems (continued)
Relation to large-scale tropical characteristics
Equatorial waves
MJO
ENSO
Interface with YOTC
Ensembles and forecast tropical circulation systems
Multi-model and within model ensembles
Optimal combination of information from multiple ensemble prediction systems
Definition and implementation of techniques that maximize information content available from ensemble prediction systems
Verification of ensemble-based forecast products
Development of perturbations relative to tropical circulation systems such as stochastic physics.
Interaction among scales to define favorable large-scale environments that will impact synoptic-scale, mesoscale, and cloud scale processes
Extended range forecasts (monthly and seasonal)
Regime prediction

13. T-PARC-related PDP topics
Targeted Observations
Continue to quantify dependencies on distribution of data relative to circulation features
Inner core
Near-storm environment
Remote sensitive regions
Identify dependencies on data assimilation systems
Improve the ability to quantitatively predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to targeted observations
Encourage continued analysis of T-PARC metods data sets and data sets from other targeted data programs.
Examine the relative contributions of in situ and remotely-sensed targeted observations
Process studies: Extratropical Transition and Downstream Impacts
Improved understanding of evolution of key structures during ET
Decaying tropical cyclone structures
Increasing midlatitude cyclone structures
Interface among features
Identification of factors that impact downstream variability
Examine predictability and dynamical processes using ensemble prediction systems
Forecast verification
Structural characteristics
Timing
Downstream impacts