1. New Horizons for Agriculture
Matt Lobley

3. Context and challenges
Large population of small family farms
Aging population/delayed succession
Dependency on CAP support payments
Low levels of productivity amongst many

4. Farm Business Income by cost centre 2015/16

5. The future
Long history of supporting farmers but not all farmers and not all of the time.
Can assume that financial support to farmers is likely to be ongoing but not necessarily at a similar level or to a similar number of recipients as currently.
In a UK outside of the EU, payments to farmers will be jostling with the need for cash injections into the NHS, the education budget and so on.
Not difficult to foresee a future where farm support fluctuates and is politically vulnerable in a way that it was not while we remained in the EU.

6. The future
Any significant reduction in support payments will likely threaten the viability of a great many farms, leading to a future of fewer but larger farms.
The harsh truth is that we can produce existing levels of food with fewer than the existing number of farmers but what about environmental management and rural communities, society and culture …..?

7. Priorities: improving prospects and resilience
Regardless of shape & size of support package under a BAP we need to:
Upskill UK agriculture:
Adopt lifelong learning through regularly accessing advice, support and information to help inform business decisions.
Develop good management and technical skills to assist with the effective day-to-day management of a successful farm business.
Peer-to-peer support & business mentoring
Plan for the future:
Develop and implement a plan for succession and/or retirement from farming.

8. Priorities: improving prospects and resilience
‘New Blood’
Utilise more flexible approach to encourage new entrants into farming through share farming arrangements & Farm Business Tenancies.
Greater investment in farming entrance schemes such as Fresh Start Academies and the Fresh Start Land Enterprise matching service.
Consideration should be given in planning policy to allow farmers of retirement age to build a retirement house when they agree to facilitate new entrants through FBTs, share farming or land purchase.

9. Priorities: improving prospects and resilience
Collaboration & the supply chain
Facilitate greater farmer collaboration
Encourage more local procurement & short supply chains

10. Conclusions
Implications of Brexit are enormous & will reverberate for many years.
Regardless of the final shape of Brexit and BAP there are a number of interventions that can improve the resilience of UK family farming.
Much of this requires investment in people.