1. ERTAC EGU Overview For the 2016 EGU workgroup
January 25, 2018

2. Introduction to ERTAC EGU
State and planning organization collaboration to build a model to project future EGU emissions suited to state air quality planning
Starting Point for v2.7
2011 Base Year (BY) hourly continuous emissions monitor (CEM) data
BY & FY unit activity matches meteorology
More realistic for SIP modeling
Growth rates (GRs) by fuel and region – EIA AEO2017 & NERC
Coal, Oil, NG (CC, SC, Boiler Gas)
Information Supplied By States as of Spr 2017
New units, retirements, seasonal & annual controls, fuel-switches, etc.
ERTAC EGU Tool Generates Future Hourly Estimates
Manual power transfer across regional boundaries or fuel silos – Large NY nuke retired. Power transferred to two NG Combined cycle units
Regional unit capacity never exceeded - Unmet demand applied to other units or new units created if demand exceeds system capacity on an hourly basis
Hourly Emissions Converted to SMOKE Format for AQ Modeling

3. Unit Level Hypothetical Example Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Base
Future
CEM Hourly Base Year Data
Mmbtu/hr
Variations in growth rate
Calendar Hours

4. Hypothetical Unit Level Example Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW – SO2 Control
Base
Future
Future Year lbs/hr
Base Year lbs/hr
Calendar Hours

5. Growth Rates (GR) Peak GR = 1.07 Annual GR = 0.95
Transition hours of 200 & 2,000
Non Peak GR = (calculated)

6. Benefits of ERTAC EGU Growth Tool
Conservative predictions
No big swings in generation
No unexpected unit shutdowns
Inputs completely transparent
Software not proprietary
Hourly output files reflect base year meteorology
Addresses HEDD concerns
Quickly evaluates scenarios
High and low natural gas penetration
Different ways that sources might comply with a new rule (MATS)
Retirements, growth, and controls

7. Source: EIA AEO 2006 – EIA AEO 2017, Table 8

8. Source: EIA AEO 2006 – EIA AEO 2017, Table 8

9. ERTAC EGU v2.7
AEO2017 (Annual Growth) & NERC (Peak Growth) with two exceptions
SRVC and NYCW use Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) derived growth factors
State unit updates as of Spring 2017
Generation transfers to alternate fuels to address identified issues
Transfer of Indian Point nuclear powerplant generation to combined cycle NG (for years after 2021)
Transfer of power in a few hours from coal to NG in RFCE (missing generation)
Transfer of power from coal to NG in FRCC/FL to alleviate coal GDU
Unit characteristic updates in SRDA to alleviate coal GDU (one unit at Big Cajun 2/LA)
Transfer of power from coal to NG in NEWE to alleviate coal GDU (2017 only)
Emission rate adjustments on facilities with SCR & SNCR in CSAPR states for ozone season only
Units with SNCR’s reduced to lb/MMBtu (EPA did not reduce SNCR in their Analytics approach)
Units with SCR’s reduced to lb/MMBtu (EPA used 0.1 lb/MMBtu)
Similar to MD study of “best rates”
Emission rate adjustments on some facilities without post-combustion controls in OK
1/2/2019

10. 0.125 lb/MMBtu

11. 0.064 lb/MMBtu

12. AEO2017 no CPP w/controls - Analysis
Need a 3:1 ratio for emissions above assurance level

13. 47% Overall Decrease in NOX
ERTAC EGU V2.7
2023 and 2011
Emissions & Heat Input
47% Overall Decrease in NOX
61% Overall Decrease in SO2
Heat input approximately the same

14. 2011 and 2023 Optimized versus Non-Optimized
ERTAC EGU V2.7
2011 and 2023 Optimized versus Non-Optimized
Ozone Season NOX Emissions
Note: Some states in Western USA did not provide updates to ERTAC EGU for new units and controls. Examples include AZ, WY. Their 2023 emissions might be lower than was estimated. Only CSAPR states were optimized.

15. ERTAC EGU V2.7 2011, 2023 and 2016 CAMD Annual Emissions & Heat Input
States where NOX for 23>>16
AR, AZ, KS, MS, NE, OK, TX, UT, WY
DRAFT

16. Next Steps
ERTAC EGU committee is developing the 2016 base year with CSAPR compliant projections to 2028 & 2023.
Base year is done.
Projections are in progress

17. How do you find the files?
ERTAC EGU files are located here:
Latest posted version is v2.7
Presentations & other materials from this outreach are located here:
Password:ERTACoutr3ach
Sign In URL:
Questions?

18. Extra Slides

19. NOX emissions by state (Tons/ozone season)

20. UAF and Controls Input Files: How to Provide Input
Doris McLeod, Air Quality Planner

21. The Five Basic Files Unit Availability File (UAF) Controls File
Backbone of the tool
Unit level data
Sources: CAMD, EIA, NEEDS, State Staff
Controls File
Unit level data for SO2 and NOx
Emission rates or control efficiencies
May be supplemented with the Seasonal Controls File
Growth Rates File
Growth rates by region and fuel unit type
Annual based on EIA reference case (AEO 2015 High Oil & Gas)
Peak based on NERC
Input Variables File
A variety of variables that can be changed for each region and fuel unit type
Many deal with new, planned units or GDUs
CAMD Hourly Base Year Data
These are the 5 files needed to run the code. Other extra files are for state and group emissions caps, nonCAMD input file, and seasonal controls file. Users may use the seasonal controls file to vary the emissions rate of a particular unit by time period in the future year. Examples currently include rates assigned by season, but could go down to an increment of a day, if the user had that much patience.
State and group emissions caps allow the code to create output files that compare FY emissions with appropriate caps. These files do NOT change the result of activity estimates or emissions estimates. At this point in time, the state and group emissions caps only allow the comparison to take place.
The nonCAMD input file allows the user to include hourly emissions data that is NOT from CAMD. However, the data must be in the CAMD hourly format. Can be used to supply hours for an entire year, or just a few hours of the year.

22. Controls File
Control data only affects emissions--does NOT affect activity
Allows close management of emission rates at the unit level
If the BY is an accurate reflection of EFs in the FY, no control files information is needed.
If the unit will be operated differently in the FY, apply that data to the controls file.
Please include NOx and SO2 rates for new units or for units that undergo a fuel switch.
Please include the “Submitter’s Address” in that column!
Please provide a “reason” for the control. This could be:
Permit limit taken
State RACT rule
Consent Decree #.....
Etc.
Control does not affect activity. Only emissions and emission rates.

23. Controls File: Typical Entries for Documentation File-SO2 & NOx
Blue columns are needed for processing
May submit either emission rate or control efficiency
If both are submitted, emission rate is used
For new or fuel-switched units, emission rate is needed (no BY data to which the control efficiency may be applied!)
Other columns are helpful, but the code will process the data with blanks in these columns
If at all possible, supply control data entries for new units!
Also, please fill in the commenter’s column so we know who to contact for questions!

24. Submitter’s email address column not shown!!! Please fill that in too!
SO2
oris plant id
camd unit id
state
facility name
camd unit type
NEEDS ID
SO2 Control Equipment
SO2 Control Start Date
SO2 Control End Date
SO2 Control Efficiency
Controlled SO2 Rate (lbs/mmBtu)
2011 CAMD SO2 RATE (lbs/mmbtu)
2012 CAMD SO2 RATE (lbs/mmbtu)
Comments
3775 1 VA
Clinch River
Use of NG
4/17/2016
1/1/2050
0.001
0.863
0.894
Unit switched to gas as required by permit. EF based on permit limit of lbs/mmbtu. See
3797 3
Chesterfield Power Station
FGD
1/1/2012
95.0
0.1014
1.700
0.067
Voluntary control. EF based on 2014 CAMD data. 5
0.0589
Control required by federal CO. Limitation of 0.10 lbs SO2/mmbtu. EF based on 2014 CAMD data.
56808
Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center
 Dry scrubber
 0.010
New unit. Rate based on 2013 CAMD data. Limit is lbs/mmbtu SO2. Title V permit dated Jan 1, 2014:
Submitter’s address column not shown!!! Please fill that in too!

25. Submitter’s email address column not shown!!! Please fill that in too!
NOx
oris plant id
camd unit id
state
facility name
camd unit type
NEEDS ID
NOx Control Equipment
NOx Control Start Date
NOx Control End Date
NOx Control Efficiency
Controlled NOx Rate (lbs/mmBtu)
2011 CAMD NOx RATE (lbs/mmbtu)
2012 CAMD NOx RATE (lbs/mmbtu)
Comments
3775 1 VA
Clinch River
Use of NG
4/17/2016
1/1/2050
0.13
0.22
0.19
Unit switched to gas as required by permit. Permit limit of 0.18 lbs NOx/mmbtu. Rate based on similar unit’s CAMD data. See permit dated 8/3/2016.
56808
Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center
 SNCR
1/1/2012
 0.061
New unit. Rate based on 2013 CAMD data. Limit is lbs/mmbtu NOx. Title V permit dated Jan 1, 2014:
Submitter’s address column not shown!!! Please fill that in too!

26. Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC)
ERTAC convenes ad-hoc groups to solve specific inventory problems
Collaboration:
States - NE, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Lake Michigan
Multi-jurisdictional organizations
Industry
ERTAC EGU growth convened in 2009
Goal: Build a model to project future EGU emissions suited to State air quality planning
Utility representatives provided guidance on model design and inputs