2. Development and Climate Change
World Development Report 2010
Marianne Fay
October 2009

3. Act now Act together Act differently
Climate change is a serious and immediate threat but a climate-smart world is possible if we…
Act now
Act together
Act differently
New finance, instruments and
pressures are helping build momentum
New finance, new instruments and new
pressures are helping build momentum

4. Scientific consensus: serious and immediate
2001 assessment
2007 assessment
Increase in global temperature since pre-industrial era (°C) 5 4 2 1 3
2°C over preindustrial
Today = + 0.8°C
Risks to unique and threatened systems
Risk of extreme weather events
Distribution of impacts
Aggregate impacts
Risks of
large scale discontinuities
Source: Smith and others, 2009

5. No country is immune – ECA significantly threatened
By 2030, ECA will be much warmer…
+1.6 to+2.6 by mid century
Fewer frost days (- 14 to 30 days)
More heatwaves: Poland and Hungary to experience same number hot days as Sicily today
Implications
Melting glaciers; less snow
Melting permafrost, arctic ice
Sealevel rise (except Caspian)

6. No country is immune – ECA significantly threatened
And will suffer more droughts and floods…
Precipitation will increase everywhere but in Southern ECA and Central Asia
But water availability will decrease everywhere but Russia
Increased precipitation intensity almost everywhere

7. A climate-smart world is possible…
Annual public subsidies
Private funding for energy R&D

8. But to meet the challenge, we must
ACT NOW
ACT TOGETHER
ACT DIFFERENTLY

9. Act now: Today’s actions Determine tomorrow’s options
Inertia in the climate system
feasibility
Inertia in the
built environment
costs
Inertia in institutions and
individuals’ behavior
political momentum

10. Act now: Or the 2˚C trajectory is out of reach
Projected annual total global emissions (billion tons of CO2 equivalent)

11. Act now: Much is at risk already and we have to learn to adapt
Urban climate by 2100 (if we don’t act)

12. Gt of foregone mitigation
Act together: Richer countries have to take the lead but all have a role to play
Marginal mitigation cost ($/tCO2e)
Advanced technologies:
carbon capture and storage
Gt of foregone mitigation -
160
140
120
100 80 60 40 20
Efficiency in buildings
Land-use and land-use change, mostly in developing countries
Additional cost of
achieving 10 Gt
of mitigation 10 20 30 40
Mitigation potential (GtCO2e/year)
Small hydro and nuclear in developing countries
Renewable energy:
Wind and solar
Efficiency in motors, cars, and electricity co-eneration
Marginal cost, all countries
Mitigation measure in a developing country
Mitigation measure in a high-income country
Marginal cost, all countries
Negative costs:
Long-term savings outweigh initial costs
Marginal cost, only high-income countries
McKinsey 2009

13. Act differently: Radically transform energy systems
Global primary energy mix (exajoules)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
Energy efficiency

14. Act differently: To manage a changing world
To take advantage of the opportunities that could arise
Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine to “feed the world”?
Warmer temperatures, carbon fertilization… but land and water?
Agriculture and forestry yield gap much higher than potential increase from climate change
Northern expansion…requires infrastructure
Make robust rather than optimal
decisions
Agriculture yield gap 4.5 higher than potential increase from climate change
Forests potential increase from better management: 60-80%; from warmer climate: 10-30%

15. Making it happen: New resources
To reconcile equity and efficiency
Requires massive scaling-up
From $9 bn to $170-$275 Bn in 2030
A financing challenge: $250-$550 bn in associated mitigation finance
It can be done:
Requires all options available
Financing = 3% global investments

16. To support communities and decisionmakers Low-tech and high-tech
Making it happen: New instruments
To support communities and decisionmakers
Low-tech and high-tech
The map shows levels of groundwater depletion in Tunisia (as a result of agricultural activities) esimated from satellites. Such technology didn't really exist a decade ago, but is increasingly accessible (and therefore used) to monitor scarce natural resources. Such technology can be instrumental in managing increasingly (climate) stressed systems (e.g. in agric. or forestry) more effectively. Such data, provided in a timely and reliable fashion, helps planners, farmers and decision-makers to make better, more informed, decisions.
Ohter high-tech examples for new instruments would include satellite data to respond swiftly after disasters, map forests, track traffic, monitor coastal pollution, manage agric. commodity, provide early warning  - just to mention a few. But also GPS, cheap laptops/destops, wireless communication have changed how people access and use information.
_________________________

17. Increasing awareness and concern
Making it happen: New pressures
Increasing awareness and concern
Individuals and organizations are responding
Politics are changing
More is needed to turn awareness into action
“ Soft” policy tools - communication and education; social norms
Create institutional mechanisms to deal with new challenges

18. http://blogs.worldbank.org/ climatechange/
climatechange