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Scenario Workshops Summary
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Economy Scale of analysis vs. scale of practical intervention / problems Pure economic approach + sort-sighted approaches vs. other values But: don’t ask the models to do everything Competitiveness approach in CEEC due to lack of other alternatives (no means for regional policy) Competition v cohesion & sustainability: no 0|1 solutions but compromise solutions Phasing approach: promise of future paradise in exchange for current sufferings ? => spatial inertia Combine policy for growth poles with policy for capacity for diffusion => don’t fight it, cope with it Don’t exaggerate influence of planners: scenarios should deliver ideas on most important future trends for regional development
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Demography Consequences of ageing on territorial development:
Ageing maybe not a problem: territorial diversity Restructuring of economic production processes Some national/regional social systems overburdened: higher level redistribution Levers for altering natural population trends: Job security and child care Financial and housing security But scepticism about real possibilities Immigration as lever: Cultural stability as important as stable population Immigration might artificially support obsolete structures Division between labour and knowledge regions
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Environment Main threats
Loss of biodiversity, urban sprawl, fragmentation Intensification of agriculture (biofuels) Climate change: water shortage, floods, heat 4 areas: nordic, coast, mountain, Mediterranean New technological developments New forms of storage of energy & self-sufficiency Small scale energy production: opportunity for rural Policies Ambiguous role of environment as cross-cutting theme Implementation, not new policies Financial measure to incite new technologies Need for more climate change adaptation measures
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Transport/Energy Transport policy impact strongly depends on actual realisation of connections Distinguish high and low speed transport High costs of HST limit subsitution potential vs. Airlines Depends on energy prices/constraints Future urban sprawl = balance between energy and land prices Whole system can strongly be influenced by new technologies, railway systems, settlements patterns Increase of divergence in accessibility: high vs low speed, high vs low accessibility Concentration on certain corridors ”recommendations”: improve, not increase road capacity; no excessive privatisation; differentiate approaches according to local conditions
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