1. Production of break free time series for the Italian LFS
Cinzia Graziani, Silvia Loriga, Andrea Spizzichino
Istat, Italian National Institute of Statistics
Contact address:
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology
Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018

2. Outline History of the Italian LFS and the breaks in 1992 and 2004
Production of break free time series
Available break free time series
Future plans to tackle the break in the LFS in 2021
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology - Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018

3. History of the Italian LFS and the breaks in 1992 and 2004
CLFS
Break due to transition from quarterly to continuous:
Changes concerning questionnaire, definitions, sampling design,
estimation procedure, organization, data collection strategy, survey mode
QLFS
Break due to several changes concerning definitions, sampling design, estimation procedure, etc.
QLFS
The first quarter for which validated microdata and the relevant metadata are available
Overlapping QLFS-CLFS
1977Q1
1992Q4
2003Q1
2004Q1
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology - Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018

4. Production of break free time series
Why?
For the short-term analysis:
to compare last results with the previous ones
to allow seasonal adjustment
For the long-term analyis:
to compare last results with those referred to many years ago
to correctly estimate the cycle-trend
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology - Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018

5. Production of break free time series
CLFS
survey data
2004Q1
back-recalculation
2003Q1
2nd back-recalculation
QLFS
survey data
overlapping
1992Q4
1st back-recalculation
1992Q3
QLFS
survey data
1977Q1
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology - Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018

6. Production of break free time series
General methodology:
macro level
model-based
by components (recalculating separately cycle-trend, seasonal component and irregular ones)
For the most detailed series:
generalization of preserving structure estimation (SPREE)
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology - Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018

7. Unemployment rate
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology - Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018

8. Employed people
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology - Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018

9. Part-time workers about 1 million persons
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology - Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018

10. Available break free time series
1977Q1-1992Q3
1992Q4-2003Q1
Employed, unemployed, inactive X
Territory
NUTS1
NUTS2
Gender
Age
Broad age classes
5-year age classes
Highest educational level
4 classes
6 classes
Employee, self-employed
Economic activity
11 classes
Temporary/permanent job
Full-time, part-time
Duration of job search
Most of the break free time series are disseminated in the I.Stat datawarehouse:
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology - Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018

11. Future plans to tackle the break in the LFS in 2021
Since 2018, additional questions to collect information needed to classify people according to the new operational definitions under the IESS FR (for internal use, and not influencing in any way the current definitions)
preliminary (partial) assessment of the impact of the new definitions
useful for past microdata treatment, if this will be considered appropriate
In 2020 a pilot survey over an independent sample implementing the new operational definitions, the simplified flowcharts and the proposed model questionnaire on working time
Estimation of provisional impact factors, at least for a set of important indicators and computation of the corresponding break free time series
comparability of the first LFS data under the IESS FR (monthly and quarterly) with the past data
seasonal adjustment of the time series and short-term analysis
Estimation of final impact factors and revision and widening of the set of estimated break free time series
a (very) large number of quarterly break free time series from 1977 and 1992 (and, eventually, break free microdata from 2004)
revision of monthly time series (from 2004), making them consistent with the corresponding quarterly break free time series
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology - Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018

12. Thank you for your attention!!!
A teamwork…
Andrea Spizzichino, Cinzia Graziani currently in charge with me of the Italian LFS time series
Riccardo Gatto, Nicola Massarelli, Pietro Gennari, Alessandro Martini for the contribution they gave to Italian LFS time series back re-calculations
Oriol Gisbert Martì, Ilaria Franco for their support in the latest back re-calculation on the highest level of education
Thank you for your attention!!!
13th Workshop on Labour Force Survey Methodology - Reykjavik, 17th and 18th of May 2018