1. Warm-Up Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 42 4 6 8 10
Won
Lost 1 3
Year
Number of Games
1) In which year(s) did the team lose more games than they won?
Year 1
2) In which year did the team play 10 games?
3) In which year did the team play the most games?
Year 2
Year 4

2. How many different meals can I order at McDonalds?
Math I
UNIT QUESTION: How do you use probability to make plans and predict for the future?
Standard: MM1D1-3
Today’s Question:
How many different meals can I order at McDonalds?
Standard: MM1D1.a.

3. Unit 4a: Probability

4. a situation involving chance that leads to results
Experiment
a situation involving chance that leads to results

5. the result of a single trial of an experiment
Outcome
the result of a single trial of an experiment

6. one or more outcomes of an experiment
Event
one or more outcomes of an experiment

7. is the measure of how likely an event is (written as a ratio)
Probability
is the measure of how likely an event is (written as a ratio)

8. Probability of an event
The probability of event A is the number of ways event A can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
P(A) = The number of ways an event can occur
Total number of possible outcomes

9. Probability It is ________ It is ______
If P = 0, then the event _______ occur.
cannot
It is ________
impossible
If P = 1, then the event _____ occur.
must
It is ______
certain
So probability is always a number between ____ and ____. 1

10. Complements
All of the probabilities must add up to 100% or 1.0 in decimal form.
Example: Classroom
P (calling on a boy) = 0.60
P (calling on a girl) = ____
0.40

11. Example: A glass jar contains 6 red, 5 green, 8 blue and 3 yellow marbles. Experiment: A marble chosen at random.
Possible outcomes: choosing a red, blue, green or yellow marble.
P(red) = number of ways to choose red =
total number of marbles
= 6 = 3
P(green) = P(blue) = P(yellow) =

12. Ex. P 3 1 6 2 There are 3 ways to roll an odd number: 1, 3, 5.
You roll a six-sided die whose sides are numbered from 1 through 6. What is the probability of rolling an ODD number?
Ex.
There are 3 ways to roll an odd number: 1, 3, 5. 3 6 = 1 2 = P

13. Theoretical or experimental?
We can calculate what our probabilities should be (theoretical values), but that is not always what happens in a real experiment.
We could spin the spinner and land on the blue sector every time (experimental values).
That’s not very likely, but it could happen

14. Favorable outcomes
Suppose you have the four color spinner-(red, blue, green and yellow. The probability of spinning a red is ¼, but how many reds should you get if you spin it 20 times?
20  ¼ = 5 times , you should theoretically land on red 5 times in 20 spins.
Does that always happen with the spinners-why don’t the values always match what you expect?

15. Tree Diagrams
Tree diagrams allow us to see all possible outcomes of an event and calculate their probabilities.
This tree diagram shows the probabilities of results of flipping three coins.
Calculate P (3 heads), P(2 heads,1 tail), P(3 tails)

16. The Counting Principle

17. Use an appropriate method to find the number of outcomes in each of the following situations:
1. Your school cafeteria offers chicken or tuna sandwiches; chips or fruit; and milk, apple juice, or orange juice. If you purchase one sandwich, one side item and one drink, how many different lunches can you choose?
There are 12 possible lunches.
Sandwich(2) Side Item(2) Drink(3) Outcomes
apple juice orange juice milk
chicken, chips, apple chicken, chips, orange chicken, chips, milk
chicken, fruit, apple chicken, fruit, orange chicken, fruit, milk
tuna, chips, apple tuna, chips, orange tuna, chips, milk
tuna, fruit, apple tuna, fruit, orange tuna, fruit, milk
chips
fruit
chicken
tuna
chips
fruit

18. (2 sandwiches, 2 sides, 3 drinks)
Easier Way
No need to make the tree diagram.
Multiply each of the number of choices
(2 sandwiches, 2 sides, 3 drinks)

19. Counting Principle
At a sporting goods store, skateboards are available in 8 different deck designs. Each deck design is available with 4 different wheel assemblies. How many skateboard choices does the store offer? 32

20. Counting Principle
A father takes his son, Marcus, to Wendy’s for lunch. He tells Marcus he can get a 5 piece nuggets, a spicy chicken sandwich, or a single for the main entrée. For sides, he can get fries, a side salad, potato, or chili. And for drinks, he can get a frosty, coke, sprite, or an orange drink. How many options for meals does Marcus have? 48