1. Homework 6 Responses
There are only 3 shelves
Most people did complete this assignment – the last Poisson step takes about 5 mins, for instance

2. This really was an assignment that can be done with a single program that does all the operations.
For example, chunk of fortran code to do the last part.

3. Raw data (max) Amplitude is about 1 C per century
But is this too noisy to really define a believable trend?

4. Use Z-test

5. Example – exp. smooth @ 0.8 (weights most recent years) – emerging trend better defined

6. baseline; max = +1.11

7. 1880-1980 baseline; max = +1.28 (better)

8. Cheating; max = 1.52

9. Gaussian is really best
But beware possible normalization issues – total area under kernel must = 1

10. Exp. Smoothing @ 0.5 is not useful or meaningful

11. Why might MIN be better to use for this kind of analysis?

12. A signal!
Statistical Area Test – width = 20 years

13. Seasonal http://pages.uoregon.edu/bkorkor/html/noisydata.html
What is best indicator?

14. Poisson
Average = 6.5; exp(-6.5) = .0015