1. Why the damped trend works
Everette S. Gardner, Jr.

2. Why the damped trend works
The empirical performance of the damped trend is due to its flexibility
Optimal parameters are often found at the boundaries of the usual [0, 1] interval. Such parameters define numerous special cases:
Three versions of SES - no drift, fixed drift, and damped drift
Three versions of the random walk - no drift, fixed drift, and damped drift
Holt’s method
Various ARIMA models
Deterministic trends

3. The damped trend method

4. Special cases of the damped trend

5. Special cases of the damped trend found in the M3 competition series
Proportion of
series