1. SUBJECT Trend Line Analyses
HSC Data Analysis:
SUBJECT Trend Line Analyses
This powerpoint goes through the interpretation of the Trend Analyses for individual subjects

2. Trend Lines 678910 St Examples High School 12345 BasketWeaving
TotNos
NoIncl
Effect H
Graph 1 compares the whole cohort(TotNos) with the state (uai) average. Graph 2 represents only those students included in the achieved/expected analysis (NoIncl). Graph 2 will generally have the same shape as Graph 1 unless significant numbers of students were not included in the Primary Analysis (NoIncl<<TotNos). Graph 3 plots the same data as the left-right position in the Secondary analysis, comparing this subject with the results of these students in all their other subjects in this school. Graph 4 is the strongest, and is the historical Primary analysis. Distance from the axis corresponds to distance from the Achieved=Expected line in the Primary Analysis.
Achieved vs Expected Result. Scale: +/ SD of Expected Result
This Subject vs all others taken by these (tot) students. Scale: +/- 10 uai 1unit marks
Comparison of School with State for Included students. Scale: +/- 1.5 uai SDs
Comparison of School Mean with State Mean. Scale: +/- 15 uai 1 unit marks
Example of a Trends Graph

3. Graph 1: vs State Average
Comparison of School Mean with State Mean. Scale: +/- 15 uai 1 unit marks
This is a summary over time of the subject mean in the school compared to the state mean.
Top graph of the 4 on the page

4. Graph 1: vs State Average
Comparison of School Mean with State Mean. Scale: +/- 15 uai 1 unit marks
This distance …
Secondary Analysis:
… is this distance from the secondary analysis
The scale on the Secondary analysis is +/- 16; on the Trend it is +/ This should not affect anyone’s ability to read the trend.

5. Graph 2: virtually the same as Gr 1
Comparison of School with State for Included students. Scale: +/- 1.5 uai SDs
Graph 2 will be useful to you only if you are investigating the effect on the data of students for whom we don’t have SC results from 2 years earlier: The only students plotted in Graph 2 are those for whom we have a full set of SC data; Graph 1 includes ALL non-zero HSC results.

6. Graph 3: vs School All-Other Average
This Subject vs all others taken by these (tot) students. Scale: +/- 10 uai 1unit marks
This distance …
Secondary Analysis:
… is this distance from the secondary analysis

7. Graph 4: the heart of the Analysis: Variation over time in Learning Gain
Achieved vs Expected Result. Scale: +/ SD of Expected Result
This plots – over time – the mean “Learning Gain” in the subject. This measure is shown each year in the Primary Analysis. It is the heart of the analysis because learning gain is what the teacher in the school has the greatest ability to affect.

8. Graph 4: the heart of the Analysis: Variation over time in Learning Gain
Achieved vs Expected Result. Scale: +/ SD of Expected Result
This distance here…
Primary Analysis:
… is the same as this distance in the Primary Analysis

9. What might you ask if…… Graph 1 is going up …
Comparison of School Mean with State Mean. Scale: +/- 15 uai 1 unit marks
Graph 1 is going up …
This Subject vs all others taken by these (tot) students. Scale: +/- 10 uai 1unit marks
Comparison of School with State for Included students. Scale: +/- 1.5 uai SDs
In this case, you wouldn’t be too worried. Generally you would be worried if the learning gain was going down, as it would be saying that you were getting better results (Graph 1) but achieving less out of the students than in previous years. However, Graph 4 shows that the results are still strongly “achievement greater than expectation”, so relax. It would be more of a worry if it was as in the next slide.
Achieved vs Expected Result. Scale: +/ SD of Expected Result
… while the learning gain is going down?

10. What might you ask if…… Or Graph 1 was going up like this…
Comparison of School Mean with State Mean. Scale: +/- 15 uai 1 unit marks
Or Graph 1 was going up like this…
This Subject vs all others taken by these (tot) students. Scale: +/- 10 uai 1unit marks
Comparison of School with State for Included students. Scale: +/- 1.5 uai SDs
This graph (somewhat over-emphasized) is a worrying but non untypical pattern. Overall, the results are going up. The problem is that the Learning Gain is going down. The question to ask is whether the better results are being obtained by enrolling more able students, who aren’t achieving the results that might be expected of them: a classic streaming effect.
Achieved vs Expected Result. Scale: +/ SD of Expected Result
… while the learning gain is going down?

11. What might you ask if…… Or Graph 1 was going up like this…
Comparison of School Mean with State Mean. Scale: +/- 15 uai 1 unit marks
Or Graph 1 was going up like this…
This Subject vs all others taken by these (tot) students. Scale: +/- 10 uai 1unit marks
Comparison of School with State for Included students. Scale: +/- 1.5 uai SDs
What can we do to reward, encourage, emulate this/these teacher/s??!
Achieved vs Expected Result. Scale: +/ SD of Expected Result
… while the learning gain is doing this?

12. Trend Graphs: putting together …
Comparison with state average
Comparison with school average for these students
Learning Gain
Second-Order Effects
Uncertainty
…. Over time.
Summary