1. 1. First steps - and still favorable used at the DWD
0. Introduction
Severe weather prediction by ensemble prediction tools -
it´s a challenge - great variability of weather events
Forecaster has to deal with the predictability of the event,
the cost-lost-ratio, customer needs, model physics ...
1. First steps - and still favorable used at the DWD
AFREG-MIX: developed during the eighties in Potsdam
low cost system (CPU-time)
Mixing GME and ECMWF and deriving weather parameter
by statistical methods - Metgrams, tables
2. Using an EPS - from the forecasters point of view
EPS: huge amount of information
- NWP model pool
- ECMWF EPS product family
- COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP PEPS
- previous EPS (or model) runs
decision for a certain szenario in a limited time frame
- automatically generated
fc´s (AFREG, GMOS)
- forecasters experience
Questions:
1. Is it possible to add value to forecasts by simple mixing
of NWP models without of any calibration ?
2. The main szenario provided by the EPS or the majority of
the NWP models - is this always the correct one ?
3. Could a NWP model PEPS outperform the ECMWF EPS ?
2nd SRNWP Workshop on Short Range Ensemble, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005
DWD