1. National climate risk assessments

2. National climate risk assessments: a key first step!
Over 60 Red Cross Red Crescent assessments have been written
Many Red Cross Red Crescent National Societies have written a climate risk assessment. Examples are available from the Climate Centre.

3. Evidence of local impacts
Use available country data
Involve communities
Involve other stakeholders, including your meteorological office.
Reducing risks experienced by the most vulnerable people is key for the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement. The work reflected in the climate risk assessment needs to address the most pressing issues for vulnerable people. It will also be key to assess not only the climate change projections for your country, but also to link these to current climate risks your country already experiences.
You can strengthen these findings by adding community perceptions of changing climate investigated using participatory tools such as in Vulnerability and Capacity Assessments. Are their perceptions documented/shared? (Remember that there are many causes of change in communities, such as environmental degradation, make sure to investigate some of the causes of change – you can check against measured trends in rainfall and temperature where they exist)
Invite stakeholders at local level to comment/ contribute to your assessment: local government representatives, community members, etc.
You can think of quoting them or having them answer the following questions:
• What are the regular climate risks that face the province/area/community: weather shocks such as floods, typhoons and slow-onset climate risks such as drought.
• Have the intensity or frequency of these been changing at all?
• Have temperatures, rainfall or seasons been changing? If so, what implications might this have into the future (could be positive or negative)?. Consider health, disasters, agriculture, water, ecosystems.
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4. Main focus of national climate risk assessments
Describe current climate risk and situation
Describe climate trends and projections
Impacts and vulnerability
Reflect how these impacts affect your work
Action Plan (optional)
A national climate risk assessment could consist of:
Describe the current climate situation, as well as existing geography and vulnerabilities.
Gather available climate change information (projections).
How does this impact the lives of the most vulnerable?
Reflect on how these impacts will affect your work and mandate.
Include an action plan with next steps.
In the relevant reading section of this module, you will find more steps and guidance on how to write a national climate risk assessment.

5. National climate risk assessment
Step 1:
Describe the current situation in your country
Geography
Climate
Vulnerabilities
Describe the current situation in your country (e.g. geography, climate, vulnerabilities). What is the geography and current climate like? In what ways are people vulnerable? Keep it short and simple. This section can help the reader understand some background specifics.
Photo: IFRC

6. National climate risk assessment
Step 2:
Climate trend and projections information can be found at sources such as:
- Your meteorological office
UNDP country profiles
National adaptation plans
UNFCCC
IPCC
There will be plenty of relevant data and it is good to decide which sources are credible enough. A number of international sources are worthwhile checking. We have listed some important ones on this slide.

7. National climate risk assessment
Step 3:
Impacts and vulnerability
How can climate change affect existing
problems of vulnerable people?
This part will need to highlight the reason for writing the report. You are concerned about the impacts on the most vulnerable from a humanitarian perspective and therefore you need to frame the impacts in relation to your mandate: disasters, health, emergencies and vulnerability. You can have a look at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Guide to see how climate change impacts are framed in the context of the Movement.
Though climate change is now affecting the weather, including the risk of more extreme events, it is impossible to link any single weather event only to climate change. In a normal climate, there have always been extreme-weather events, and these will continue as well. This is the reason why we speak about addressing climate variability as well as climate change.

8. National climate risk assessment
Step 4:
Reflect how the climate related impacts affect your work
What do changing climate-related risks and current vulnerabilities mean for Red Cross Red Crescent services? Will they need to be strengthened?
Addressing climate change is most effectively done through “climate-smart” disaster risk reduction. It does not require new programmes, but the more it strengthens what we are already doing in terms of disaster preparedness and disaster risk reduction the better! Indicate how these elements are part of your existing health, disaster management and water and sanitation programmes, or how climate change related concerns can be built in.
Photo: IFRC

9. Keep it real and relevant
Don’t include things that you can’t explain
Use diagrams to clarify
Use quotes and pictures that tell the story better
The science may predict a decrease in rainfall. This projection carry mopre weight if it matches real observations from community members that it is getting so much dryer and that the harvest keep failing due to the drought.

10. Keep it simple and understandable
Don’t confuse readers with too much complex data
Talk about what impacts may occur in this country, region, or community through understandable language. Graphs can be very intimidating and confusing, so only use clear ones which support the point you would like to make.

11. List your sources!
We urge you make a list of all the sources of information that you use in your report. This makes the report a credible one.
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12. Purpose of an assessment
The assessment can have multiple purposes.
Writing an assessment can serve more than one purpose. This report can give your National Society a better understanding of the implications climate change can have for programmes and policy. It can also be used for policy dialogues, awareness raising and communication efforts, education and planning. In the following slides we will discuss how this can work in more detail.

13. Policy dialogue
Highlighting humanitarian consequences of climate change
Ensuring the needs of the most vulnerable are addressed in climate change policies
The national climate risk assessment is helpful to get a good understanding of the humanitarian consequences of climate change. The next step is to find out whether the existing national government policies address these concerns: are the needs of the most vulnerable being met in climate change policy? When this is not the case, the national risk assessment is a helpful tool to strengthen the policy dialogue between the National Society and relevant government institutions, for example in the context of the development of the national adaptation plan.
Photo: IFRC
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14. Awareness and education This assessment is more than just a collection of basic facts about climate change! Main messages can be captured in campaigns or awareness raising.
The outcomes of the assessment can also be used to raise awareness and communicate about climate change within the National Society. It can provide the basic facts for training and background reading for staff and volunteers. With the aim that the majority of staff at national and branch levels is able to explain, in basic terms, the causes of climate change as well as the main trends, projections and likely impacts of current and future climate change in their country. Most importantly, they also know what they can do to address increasing climate risks.
Furthermore, the assessment can be useful in discussions with external partners, it can assist you in deciding which external messages you want to communicate e.g. school curricula or media and how to do this. More on communication strategies can be found in module 3B of this training kit, in particular in the how-to guide in the Relevant reading section.
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15. Planning AN ACTION PLAN IS NEEDED
Planning AN ACTION PLAN IS NEEDED! - How do we consider the climate risk assessment in our work (of different departments)? - Which steps do we take next?
The assessment will be strongest if you manage to link it to your work and if you are able to translate the findings into next steps for your organization.
Overall climate change does not need to bring about new and separate programmes. It might just be most effective if you slightly alter and strengthen the existing programmes and policies. In other sub-modules (especially 2c on Disaster management, 2d Addressing community risk, and 2e Health and climate) you will find examples of how you can integrate climate risk in different work areas. Module 4 provides suggestions on how to consider the results of your risk assessment in the programme/project management cycle.
More information on the action plan in our next slide.
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16. The action plan 1. Brainstorming of ideas 2. Prioritizing
3. Assessing funding opportunities
4. Assess opportunities for integrating into existing projects
The Action plan can be part of the assessment or can be done seperately after the assessment.
Brainstorm: List possible ideas for action that have resulted from investigating the climate change impacts in your country. Add a list of possible partner organisations and reconsider which may be good to invite for further brainstorm activities on potential actions to address the climate related risks identified.
Prioritise: Think about the disaster, health and water and sanitation plans and priorities of the National Society. Which of the actions in relation to climate change are relevant? Realistic? A priority? You will need to discuss this with your Secretary General and other staff members.
Assess funding opportunities 
Assess opportunities to integrate climate change into the existing projects of the National Society and discuss this additional element with those donors.
The following questions can help you to fine tune the action plan: 
What steps will need to be taken to achieve climate smart programmes and projects?
Who will benefit from it? How will you measure its impact?
Where and when do you plan to do it?
Who will be involved in it? Will it involve volunteers? Will it involve partnerships with other organisations? Will it involve other departments in your National Society? How?
Are there similar climate change related activities already going on in the country? If so, how will your plan differ or can you coordinate with those initiatives?
What are the risks/challenges involved in the integration of climate risks in existing programmes and projects ?
How much will it cost?

17. Limits and complexity of the assessments Scientific consensus on climate change? Level of uncertainty: how to communicate probability?
The assessment also has limitations:
We have to base our findings on the available science. However, given the magnitude and complexity of the climate change issue we know that the current science on climate change still has many unanswered questions. That is a given. It is important to explain somewhere in your assessment that though science over the years is getting clearer about what causes climate change and what will be the impacts, many uncertainties remain. These uncertainties are subject to scientific debate, which is good. The IPCC and related knowledge centres, are the best sources we have. Their reports are based on the best available science and signed off by governments. Hence we use these as the most credible source. Your hydro-meteorological office may also help you to identify relevant findings. The Climate Centre team is always most willing to assist in case National Societies have any questions about climate change projections for the future.
Particularly difficult is the fact that we have to communicate things that are not 100% certain. Therefore it is sometimes important to stick to some of the terms used to express the level of certainty of some data. For example: “climate change is very likely [emphasis added] caused by human activity” (IPCC 2007).
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