1. Generating Testable Ideas
Chapter 2
Generating Testable Ideas

2. Generating Interesting and Novel Ideas
The object of research is to extend human knowledge beyond what is already known
Once a research study is complete, researchers will try to publish the results in a scientific journal, called a peer-reviewed journal

3. Generating Interesting and Novel Ideas
Two criteria of importance to publishing a work can be met by answering two questions:
Is my idea interesting?
An interesting idea can potentially benefit society, test a prediction, or develop areas of research
Journals prefer to publish papers that are going to be widely read and useful to their readers
Is my idea novel?
A novel idea is one that is original or new
You must be able to show how your idea adds to or builds upon the scientific literature

4. Converting Ideas to Hypotheses and Theories
Hypothesis – A specific, testable claim or prediction about what you expect to observe given a set of circumstances
Theory – A broad statement used to account for an existing body of knowledge and also provide unique predictions to extend that body of knowledge
Theory is tested in one of two ways:
The predictions made by the theory can be tested
The limitations of a theory can be tested

5. Converting Ideas to Hypotheses and Theories
Hypotheses and theories allow researchers to organize a large body of research in a way that explains an understanding for evidence and provides predictions to organize the expectations for what we should observe
Researchers state hypotheses that, after being rigorously tested, can develop into a theory

6. The story
Wilhelm Von Osten believed that horses would prove to be as intelligent as people if only they were given a proper education
Spent 4 years tutoring Hans using a method from German schools
Hans could answer questions about history, arithmetic, etc even in languages he could not understand. Hoof tapping.
Oskar Pfungst : psychologist

7. Converting Ideas to Hypotheses and Theories
Wilhelm van Osten and his horse, Hans. Germany, beginning of 20th century.

9. So why the fuss about theories?
Grocery shopping with a chemist.
What do people mean when they say “Evolution is just a theory”?
Evolution vs. Universal Gravitation

10. McGuire’s Creative Hypothesis Generating in Psychology (1997)
Focus of research methods courses is largely the process of research and testing of hypotheses
Rarely are attempts made to explain or teach the method by which to generate hypotheses
Creative “heuristics” for generating hypotheses can be taught

11. Some of McGuire’s heuristics…
Recognizing and accounting for the oddity of occurrences

12. Some additional heuristics…
Consider deviations (exceptions) from a general trend
Introspective self-analysis
Reversing the direction of causality for a banal hypothesis
Exposure to tv violence causes increased aggression
Attitude change produces behavioral change
Shift your attention to the opposite pole of the problem
Heuristic G22 – but just say no to drugs!

13. Creative Hypothesis Generating Worksheet

14. Developing Your Idea: Deduction and Induction

15. Performing a Literature Review
Getting started: Choosing a research topic
Getting organized: Choosing appropriate sources
Keeping track of the types of sources you come across as you perform your review is important
A source is any published or printed article, chapter, or book from which information can be obtained
To organize the sources and make a literature review more efficient:
Begin with a search of review articles
Search only from peer-reviewed or other scientific sources

16. Performing a Literature Review
You can categorize sources as primary and secondary
Primary source: Any publication in which the works, ideas, or observations are those of the author
Secondary source: Any publication that refers to works, ideas, or observations that are not those of the author
Review articles provide a full summary of a research topic by an author who is regarded as an expert on that topic
The difference between a primary and a secondary source:
“We have shown that there are significant differences between males and females in the appearance of monochromatic lights…Across most of the visible spectrum males require a slightly longer wavelength than do females in order to experience the same hue.”
(Abramov, Gordon, Feldman & Chavarga, 2012)

17. Performing a Literature Review
To develop an idea you must perform a literature review
Literature is the general body of published scientific knowledge
The review is the search you perform of this general body of knowledge
Key objective of the literature review is to develop new ideas that can be converted into a hypothesis that is interesting and novel
Your literature review should contain multiple perspectives/considerations (evaluating contradictory evidence is a strength!)

18. Performing a Literature Review

20. Ethics in Focus: Giving Proper Credit
One important reason for organizing your sources is to avoid confusion when giving credit for sources cited in your research study

21. Ethics in Focus: Giving Proper Credit
1. Obtain the primary source of an article you cite
One way to find the primary source is to check the references of secondary sources
2. Avoid “abstracting”
Instances in which an individual cites the full reference of some work after simply skimming through an abstract
3. Be aware of citation bias
Citation bias occurs when an author or authors cite only evidence that supports their view and fail to cite conflicting evidence

22. Testing Your Idea: Confirmation and Disconfirmation
Confirmational strategy – Method of testing a theory or hypothesis in which a positive result confirms the predictions made by that theory or hypothesis
Often used to test a new theory or hypothesis
Using an “if…then” logic statement, a confirmational strategy can be represented as follows:
If A is true, then B is true
B is true.
Therefore, A is true.

23. it is a logical fallacy to affirm any  statement by merely showing that its consequences are true, because the truth of any consequence never  shows that the statement it derives from is true.
How then can science (supposedly) confirm theories by looking to see whether their consequences occur or not?

24. Testing Your Idea: Confirmation and Disconfirmation
Disconfirmational strategy – Method of testing a theory or hypothesis in which a positive result disconfirms the predictions made by that theory or hypothesis
A benefit of using this strategy is that we can refute a theory or hypothesis with a positive result
Best strategy for refuting a theory
If A is true, then B cannot be true
B is true.
Therefore, A is not true.

25. Task: Is a statement about a set of integers from 1 to 10 true?
“all of the numbers are even”
“none of the numbers are even”
“some of the numbers were even”
They generated individual numbers, one possible number at a time, to test whether they were members of the set. 2 5 7 1 3 8 9

26. Ethics in Focus: Publication Bias
Publication bias – Tendency for editors of peer- reviewed journals to preferentially accept articles that show positive results and reject those that show only negative results
Researchers conduct studies to observe an effect, or significant outcome of a study
The failure to observe an effect means that few, if any, peer-reviewed journals will allow the study to be published
Publication bias feeds citation bias and vice versa

27. Ethics in Focus: Publication Bias
Keep in mind that while positive results reported in the peer-reviewed literature can be trusted, take caution in knowing that many negative results may not be included in your search