1. The Post-Cold War World
IAFS 4500

2. Did The Bomb Win WWII?
Gar Alperovitz – Japan wanted to surrender, looking for Stalin to mediate
Supreme Council was already meeting before Nagasaki bomb
Conventional bombing (Firebombing of Tokyo) was more effective
Stalin enters the war after Potsdam
What do you think?

3. Early Cold War Events Berlin Airlift Mr. X letter Containment NSC 68
Truman Doctrine
National Security Act of 47
Triumph of Mao in China
Korean War
NATO

4. Height of the Cold War 1950-1962 Missed Opportunity?
Red Scare/Army McCarthy Hearings
Bomber Gap/Missile Gap
Sputnik
Austrian Peace Treaty
Hungary/Suez
Cuban Missile Crisis

5. Thawing the Cold War 1962-69 “The Best and the Brightest”
The Berlin Wall
Vietnam
Prague Spring
MAD
Sino-Soviet Split

6. Redefinition of the Cold War 1969-77
SALT
Ford/Angola
Ping-pong diplomacy
Yom Kippur War
Watergate
Carter Doctrine

7. Cold War Deterrence 1. Broadcast 2. Capability (not Secret)
3. Credibility
McNamara equation for deterrence
“The Best and the Brightest”

8. Cold War WMD Terms Nuclear Triad
Nuclear Artillery, Honest John, Davey Crockett
Range, Yield, Accuracy, Reliability, Survivability & Readiness
ICBM, IRBM, GLCM, TLAM(N) & SLCM
SIOP
SLBM’s Blue/Gold Crews
Counterforce/Countervalue
MIRV & MRV
Secure 2nd Strike
Looking Glass
Failsafe
PAL
Strategic v. Tactical Nukes
ABM (Galosh/Safeguard)

9. Cold War WMD Terms II 60K Nuclear Weapons Force de Frappe
Minimum Deterrence
MAD
Massive Retaliation
Preventive War /Preemptive Strike
Hardened/Dispersed
Firebreak

10. Evolution of Cold War Strategy
U.S.
USSR
Truman – Containment
Ike – Massive Retaliation
JFK – Flexible Response
Nixon – MAD
Carter – Human Rights
Reagan – Roll back
Stalin – BofP
Khrushchev – Peaceful Coexistence
Brezhnev – MAD (Tula 74)
Gorbachev

11. The End of the Cold War Reagan vs. Gorbachev
Realism & Deterrence vs. Culture & Idealism

12. The Reagan Buildup
Did the Reagan buildup win the Cold War?

13. Or did Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev have a bigger impact?
Generational Change
WWII Memory
The Missing Generation
Education
“The Thaw”
Cultural Change
Economic Reality

14. Herman Kahn “Thinking about the Unthinkable” 1964 and 1984
Twelve Nonissues
Nuclear arms control will save mankind
Planetary Govt. to achieve arms control
Goal should be disarmament
Nuclear Freeze
Deterrence can be made 100% reliable
Deterrence will eventually fail

15. Herman Kahn “Thinking about the Unthinkable” 1964 and 1984
Twelve Nonissues (cont.)
Damage limiting is infeasible
There is reliable damage limiting
Nuclear war can be limited
There is no possibility of limited nuclear war
The US or USSR could win a nuclear war

16. How would Nuclear War Begin?
“Bolt from the Blue”
Pre-emptive Attack
Conventional conflict escalates into nuclear war
Accidental use of nuclear weapons
Nuclear war started by smaller nuclear power or terrorist group

17. Accidental Nuclear War
Accidental launch vs. Inadvertent Launch
Nuclear Posture
Command & Control
Launch on Warning vs. Launch on Attack/Impact
Internal threats to control
Personnel reliability

18. Utility of Nuclear Weapons
Deterrence
Security/Defense
Compellance/coercion
Regime maintenance
Prestige

19. US Reasons for Nuclear Weapons
Deter the Soviet Union/Russia
Protect NATO
Limited Nuclear War?
NATO underspending
Deter Roque States
Get a piece of the nuclear pie

20. Military Utility of Nuclear Weapons
MK-54 SADB-57
Nuclear Depth Bomb