1. and the Future of Historical Family Demography
Microdata
and the Future of Historical
Family Demography

3. Univac 1105 at Census, 1960

4. The First Microdata: The 1960 Census Samples
Distributed on 13 Univac Tapes
(or 18,000 punchcards)
Cover, 1960 Census Microdata Codebook

5. The 1970 Public Use Samples 60 times the size of 1960 Much more detail
(especially geography)
1960 sample expanded 10-fold
Same format and coding as 1970
Led to an explosion of research on
change

8. Khartoum, CBS-Sudan

9. 1973 Census Tapes arrive at Muller Media (New York) via Barcelona

10. Dhaka, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

13. Darroch and Ornstein, 1871 Canada
National historical* microdata collections, : number of person records
Preston, 1900 USA
Darroch and Ornstein, 1871 Canada
* historical means
before 1960

14. Sager and Baskerville, 1901 Canada
National historical microdata collections, : number of person records
IPUMS, USA
Winsborough, 1940 and 1950 USA
Sager and Baskerville, 1901 Canada
Anderson, 1851 Britain

15. National historical microdata collections, 1978-2011: number of person records
Inwood and Jack, 1891 Canada;
Dillon, 1852 Canada;
Garðarsdóttir, Iceland;
+ Norway, Scotland, Sweden, USA
IPUMS, 1880 USA and
Dillon, 1881 Canada
Schürer and Woollard, 1881 England and Wales; Thorvaldsen, et al Norway

16. National historical microdata collections, 1978-2015: number of person records
USA 1940
Ancestry.Com,
USA
Scotland
Schürer, England and Wales

17. IDS/EHPS

18. Mosaic

19. Major New National Projects
The China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset
Norwegian Historical Population Registers
Sweden POPLINK
Netherlands LINKS
Great Britain I-CeM

21. Facebook has data on 800 million people
We have data on
912 million people
USA
165
International
481
Historical
266
Total
912

22. Facebook has data on 800 million people
In a few more years,
it will double again
USA
201
International
721
Historical
810
Total
1732

23. Participating Countries

24. Age classification for school enrollment
The Power of Microdata
Customized measures: Variables based on combined characteristics of family and household members, capitalizing on the hierarchical structure of the data
Multivariate analysis: Analyze many individual, household, and community characteristics simultaneously
Interoperability: Harmonize data across time and space
Age classification for school enrollment
in published U.S. Census

25. Why Do We Need Historical Microdata?
Space and Time
Fine-grained contextual analysis of processes of change
Microdata allows interoperability across time and place
Can merge population data with data from other sources, hinging on geography
Data mining can exploit large scale

28. Three Points We should use appropriate measures
We should study spatial variation
We should study long-run historical change

31. Spatial Analysis
John Hajnal
The “Hajnal Line” 31 31

32. 2009
1972

34. The Great Family Transition
Decline of intergenerational coresidence
Rise of marital instability
Separation of fertility and marriage
Rise of cohabitation and solitary residence
Decline of marriage
Increasing signs that these changes may be global in scope

35. Ideational Theory Rise of individualism Secularization
Norms and values have a life of their own

36. Percent of the Labor Force Employed in Agriculture, United States, 1800-2000

37. Structural Change
Norway: % in commercial and industrial occupations rose from 13% in 1801 to 42% in 1900
U.S. and Norway: % of women in wage-labor jobs doubled from 1870 to 1900

38. Power, Patriarchy, and Structural Change
Individual-level incentives and constraints
Wage labor shifted balance of power
Fathers and sons
Men and women
Structural transformation undermined patriarchal authority

39. Coale: Ready, Willing, and Able
Must be within “calculus of conscious choice”
Must be advantageous
Must be possible

40. Agenda for Investigating the Family Transition
Assess family choices at the individual level
Describe the geography and chronology of family change
Trace spatial associations between measures of family change and secularization
Compare the family transition to the fertility transition at the level of families, communities, economic and cultural regions
Use comparative longitudinal sources to evaluate material incentives for family transitions
Use multi-level analysis with complete-count data to assess impact of local economic opportunities and conditions on family decisions

41. Definitions (United Nations 2001)
Family: A group of people residing in the same household who recognize a kin relationship, ordinarily through descent, marriage, or adoption
Household: Person or group of people who live together and make common provision for food or other essentials for living
Kin group: A group of people who recognize a relationship through descent, marriage, or adoption

42. Scope of Family Demography (Cherlin 2003)
The configuration of families, households, and kin groups
Transitions that affect those configurations
Such transitions include departure from parental home, marriage, marital dissolution, cohabitation