1. Housing Affordability in Metro Atlanta:
Yeah, It’s Big Deal
And as you can see here, the South Atlantic region – Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida – is expected to add more people than any other region in the nation over the next 25 years or so. This should bode well for our economic future. Still, there are plenty of opportunities for us to make sure metro Atlanta not only participates in this growth, but becomes the place to be for the next generation of creative workers.

2. How We Are Thinking About Housing Regionally…
Key Goals
Preserve Affordable Supply
Reduce Housing and Transportation Costs
Promote Housing Stability
Develop Leadership on Affordability
Increase Supply
Expand Capital Resources
Building Permits
% Units With Subsidy
Home Prices/Cost Burden
Overall Cost of Construction
Evictions
Surveys?
Total Residential Addresses
% Units With Subsidy Expiring in 5 years
Median Rents/Cost Burden
Building Permits
Negative Equity
???
Home Prices
Change in Units with Rents <$800/Month
Housing +Transportation Costs
Overall Amount of Home Purchase Loans
Home Ownership Rates
New Rents vs. Median Rents
Housing Costs in Areas of Older Stock
Price Increases Near Job Centers
???
Long-Term Vacancies
Key Indicators

3. Increase Supply
What this is measuring: This will measure the overall supply of new housing being introduced to the market, including market-rate homes, mid-market homes, as well as units affordable to a range of incomes. Here we are talking about both ownership and rental.
Why this is important: The overall supply of houses, both renter- and owner-occupied, has dropped recently. Building permit activity is considerably lower than it was pre –recession, inventory of homes for sale has dropped over the past three years, and the region has lost affordable rental units (those renting at less than $800/month) over the past five years.
Key issues:
Decrease in building permit activity
Decline in for-sale inventory
Loss of affordable rental units
Note: We need to increase supply, PERIOD! Whether this takes the form of reduced regulations, reduced parking requirements, streamlined permitting process, reducing “carrying costs” to developers, establishment of housing trusts, innovative financing to better leverage 4 percent LIHTCs, increasing overall supply, especially affordable supply, will be critical

4. Increase Supply
Units Authorized by Building Permits Still Lower Than Long-Term Average
Source: SOCDS

5. Number and Share of Affordable Units Have Declined over Last Few Years
Increase Supply
Number and Share of Affordable Units Have Declined over Last Few Years
Estimate; Total Rental Units, 2016
Units: Rent <$800, 2016
Estimate; Total Rental Units, 2011
Units: Rent <$800, 2011
Change: Total Rentals
Change: Rentals <$800
Cherokee
18,283
3,918
15,235
4,083
3,048
(165)
Clayton
44,189
15,281
35,154
13,292
9,035
1,989
Cobb
98,257
16,778
81,282
19,248
16,975
(2,470)
DeKalb
124,749
27,120
110,782
32,260
13,967
(5,140)
Douglas
16,306
3,848
12,909
4,188
3,397
(340)
Fayette
7,517
1,000
5,860
1,003
1,657
(3)
Fulton
187,822
44,943
161,921
50,176
25,901
(5,233)
Gwinnett
94,633
14,277
76,292
17,048
18,341
(2,771)
Henry
19,478
2,752
14,804
2,048
4,674
704
Rockdale
9,631
2,578
8,571
2,159
1,060
419
Total, ARC10
620,865
132,495
522,810
145,505
98,055
(13,010)
Percent of Units renting for less than $800/Month
21.3%
27.8%
Source: American Community Survey, &

6. Inventory of For-Sale Homes Declining, Although Ticking Up Recently
Increase Supply
Inventory of For-Sale Homes Declining, Although Ticking Up Recently .
Source: Zillow, not seasonally adjusted, count of homes sales. Rockdale not included due to lack of data

7. Preserve Affordable Supply
What this is measuring: Many publicly-subsidized units have expiration dates, so tracking the number of units with subsidies expiring in the next five years is important to affordable housing advocates. Also, older rental units – those in the year 2000 or earlier– usually are more affordable than newly-constructed units. This section is primarily focused on rental units.
Why this is important: When public subsidies expire, or when older multi-family stock is razed, often this once-affordable stock is replaced by market rate stock, particularly in gentrifying neighborhoods. Further, often older multi-family stock is replaced by fewer, more expensive single-family units.
Key issues:
Expiring public subsidies
Tracking “naturally occurring affordable housing”
Loss of affordable rental units (see previous section)
Things like “right of first refusal”, which may give “mission-oriented” buyers an exclusive period to buy these naturally-ocurring affordable housing properties before their subsidies expire, or could be some sort of programs that include low-cost rehabbing of these older properties. We also need just a lot more money in the forms of subsidies for the lowest income households.

8. Preserve Affordable Supply
Only a Small Percentage of Subsidized Units Are Set to Lose Subsidy in Next Five Years
Number of Subsidized Units
Units with Subsidies expiring in this 5 year period (by 2022)
Units with Subsidies expiring next 5 year period ( )
Units with Subsidies expiring after 10 years (2028+)
Cherokee
2,998
349
314
2,335
Clayton
4,679
640
1,051
2,988
Cobb
6,764
685
1,411
4,668
Dekalb
15,072
814
2,740
11,518
Douglas
876
104
100
672
Fayette
589
360
229
Fulton
40,901
4,014
7,624
29,263
Gwinnett
4,994
246
435
4,313
Henry
1,266
570
696
Rockdale
578
180
398
ARC 10
78,717
6,852
14,785
57,080
(All Housing Units, 2017 estimate)
1,802,026
% of subsidized units
4.37%
Source: National Housing Preservation Database, accessed June 20, 2018

9. Preserve Affordable Supply “Affordable “ Inventory By Year Built
Rents Significantly Higher for Newer Units; Vast Majority of Units Renting For Less than $1,000 Were Built in 2000 in Earlier (thus under threat)
“Affordable “ Inventory By Year Built
All Units
Units Built before 2000
% Units built before 2000
Units Renting for $800 or less
117,997
105,402
89.3%
Units Renting for $1,000 or less
266,750
223,858
83.9%
Source: Co-star

10. Reduce Housing Costs
What this is measuring: While this is obviously related to the other sections, the measurement concept is simple – we need to reduce the cost for all housing, regardless of location, for both rented and owned units.
Why this is important: Affordability challenges are certainly exacerbated near job centers and other “areas of opportunity (i.e. near amenities, near good schools, near quality child care, etc), but we also need to ensure that housing costs are reduced throughout the region, regardless of location.
Key issues:
Reducing overall cost burden for both renters and owners
Tracking housing + transportation costs
Rents growing faster than wages
Tracking rents and home prices near employment centers
These could include things like encouraging new housing in job-rich areas that can then reduce transportation costs, potentially even creating some pooled resources regionally – these can be philanthropic dollars – to provide the gap financing necessary to develop/preserve affordable housing in resource-rich areas.

11. Reduce Housing Costs
One in Three Owners (with a mortgage) Are Cost-Burdened; But Long-Term Trend Shows Declining Percentages of Owner Cost-Burden
ARC 10 Avg: -3.4%
Source: American Community Survey, , U.S Census 2000

12. Reduce Housing Costs
Half of Renters Are Cost-Burdened, However Long-Term Trend Shows Significant Increases in Percentages of Owner Cost-Burden
ARC 10 Avg: 51.1%
ARC 10 Avg: +14.2%
Source: American Community Survey, , U.S Census 2000

13. Reduce Housing Costs
For a “Typical Household” (making the average income in metro Atlanta) to Relocate into the Atlanta Region, That Family Would Have to Pay More Than 50% of Their Income in Half of the Region’s Neighborhoods. The Picture is Worse for Households Making 80% of the Area Median Income
ARC 10 Avg: 77.4%
ARC 10 Avg: 48.9%

14. Rent Growth Far Outpacing Wage Growth Since 2011
Reduce Housing Costs
Rent Growth Far Outpacing Wage Growth Since 2011

15. Reduce Housing Costs
Transportation Costs Added To Housing Costs Complicates The Affordability Picture
CNT – “Losing Ground”
Housing Opportunity Index, NAHB

16. Rent Significantly Higher Inside the Region’s Major Employment Centers
Reduce Housing Costs
Rent Significantly Higher Inside the Region’s Major Employment Centers

17. Expand Capital Resources
What this is measuring: There is not a great way to measure this directly other than looking at the levels of overall investment in residential and the cost of housing and construction. Here we are talking about both ownership and rental.
Why this is important: To craft effective affordable strategies, smaller developers and non-profit developers need resources and public subsidies need to be expanded or matched.
Key issues:
Amount of loans for home purchases invested by banks
Overall cost of construction
Development of social impact funds that can provide an ROI – albeit lower, typically – to provide a pool of resources.

18. Expand Capital Resources
Banks Have Loaned More For Home Purchases Over the Past Two Years, And Encouraging Sign of the Overall Housing Market…
Number of Home Purchase Loans(1), 2017
Total amount of home purchase loans, 2017 (000s)
Cherokee
5,398
$ ,343,024
Clayton
2,281
$ ,812
Cobb
11,947
$ ,145,688
DeKalb
9,221
$ ,529,905
Douglas
1,960
$ ,385
Fayette
1,850
$ ,053
Fulton
15,038
$ ,906,586
Gwinnett
13,560
$ ,105,208
Henry
3,926
$ ,993
Rockdale
1,073
$ ,877
10-County ARC
66,254
$ ,223,531
Change in number of loans originated,
Change in total amount of loans originated (000s),
Cherokee
646
$ ,577
Clayton
791
$ ,745
Cobb
1,430
$ ,047
DeKalb
1,433
$ ,852
Douglas
628
$ ,276
Fayette
164
$ ,392
Fulton
1,548
$ ,375
Gwinnett
2,085
$ ,366
Henry
1,115
$ ,724
Rockdale
353
$ ,603
10-County ARC
10,193
$ ,280,957
Source: American Community Survey, , U.S Census 2000

19. Cost of Construction (Value per Unit Authorized by Building Permit)
Expand Capital Resources
…But How Much of That Is Due To Increasing Costs of Construction?
2013
2016
Change,
Cost of Construction (Value per Unit Authorized by Building Permit)
$ 155,960.73
$ 184,944.36
$ ,983.63
Source: American Community Survey, , U.S Census 2000

20. Promote Housing Stability
What this is measuring: This is measuring a family or individual’s ability to comfortably stay where they are currently living.
Why this is important: This of course is related to other goals, but promoting housing stability is focused on ensuring that current residents can stay in their homes longer, either by avoiding evictions or displacement that comes with big reinvestment programs. Here we are talking about both ownership and rental.
Key issues:
Evictions
Negative Equity
Home Ownership
Long-Term Vacancies
There are lots of things other states are doing in protecting renter rights, and we do have a very active legal aid/assistance presence here, and it could also be as simple as just promoting “no-frills” rehabs to ensure a baseline level of quality for older properties.

21. Rate of Eviction Filings have Fallen Over the Past Two Years
Promote Housing Stability
Rate of Eviction Filings have Fallen Over the Past Two Years
Source: Eviction Lab

22. Promote Housing Stability
Every Jurisdiction’s Negative Equity Rate Has Fallen Since 2014, But 10% of the Region’s Homes Are Still Underwater
Negative Equity Percent of Homes w/Mortgage
Cherokee
4.5%
Clayton
29.4%
Cobb
7.5%
Dekalb
12.8%
Douglas
10.5%
Fayette
8.7%
Fulton
12.2%
Gwinnett
6.0%
Henry
11.0%
Rockdale
14.2%
ARC 10
10.4%
Source: Zillow

23. Promote Housing Stability
Almost 68 percent of the Region’s Occupied Housing Units Are Owned, But that Is Down Almost Three Percentage Points Since The Great Recession
County
Total Units, 2016
Total Owner-Occupied, 2016
Total Renter-Occupied, 2016
% Owner, 2016
% Renter, 2016
Cherokee
80,378
62,095
18,283
77.3%
22.7%
Clayton
90,182
45,993
44,189
51.0%
49.0%
Cobb
271,975
173,718
98,257
63.9%
36.1%
Dekalb
270,903
146,154
124,749
54.0%
46.0%
Douglas
47,534
31,228
16,306
65.7%
34.3%
Fayette
38,933
31,416
7,517
80.7%
19.3%
Fulton
385,103
197,281
187,822
51.2%
48.8%
Gwinnett
278,996
184,363
94,633
66.1%
33.9%
Henry
71,000
51,522
19,478
72.6%
27.4%
Rockdale
29,940
20,309
9,631
67.8%
32.2%
ARC 10
1,564,944
944,079
620,865
Source: Zillow

24. Promote Housing Stability
Long-Term Vacancies Have Declined since 2015, an indicator of a healthier, stable housing market
County
% long-term vacancy (1+ Yrs), Q1 2018
Cherokee
1.1%
Clayton
3.0%
Cobb
1.2%
Dekalb
1.8%
Douglas
2.1%
Fayette
1.4%
Fulton
2.6%
Gwinnett
0.9%
Henry
Rockdale
ARC 10
Source: Zillow