1. Southern California Hotel Performance
Kelsey Waite
Business Development Executive, Destinations
@Kelsey_STR

2. Agenda Total U.S. Review State Level Performance Selected Markets
Look to the Future

3. Total U.S. Review

4. 68% $131 $89 Occupancy +0.5% ADR +2.5% RevPAR +3.1% Total US
USD, September 2018 YTD
68%
Occupancy
+0.5%
$131
ADR
+2.5%
$89
RevPAR
+3.1%

5. Revenue growth is highest of KPI’s
Room Supply
Room Demand
Room Revenue
2.0%
2.5%
Supply increases really dig into the impact felt from demand increases. That means the larger YOY growth in revenue is being driven by rate across the US.
We now have nearly 5.3 million rooms to sell in the US on any given night.
September 2018 YTD, US hotels have brought in over $125 billion. The year end total in 2017 was $155.8 billion – with three months left of the year, we are still on the way to exceeding that.
5.1%
Total U.S., Revenue, Supply & Demand % Change, YTD 09/2018

6. RevPAR Growth: Over 7 Year Growth, Ends Sept 2018
111 Months
56 Months
102 Months
We had the first negative RevPAR % change in 102 months in September. The growth was -0.3%
Total U.S., YOY RevPAR % Change by Month, 1/1990 – 9/2018

7. STR Class Structures Class Property Types Luxury
21C Museum Hotel, JW Marriott, W Hotel, Waldorf Astoria
Upper Upscale
Gaylord, Hilton, Hyatt Regency, Renaissance, Marriott
Upscale
Springhill Suites, Radisson, Hilton Garden Inn
Upper Midscale
Best Western Plus, Drury Inn, Fairfield Inn, Red Lion Hotel
Midscale
AmericInn, MainStay Suites, La Quinta, Tru Hotel
Economy
Days Inn, Motel 6, Red Roof Inn
Based on 2018 STR Categorization

8. Class: Demand Growth Outpaces Supply Growth
Total US, Supply / Demand % Change, by Class, September 2018 YTD

9. ADR Growth Drives RevPAR Growth
US, RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Class, September 2018 YTD

10. Upper End Hotels are Selling 7/10 Rooms
Total US, OCC %, by Class, September 2017 & 2018 YTD

11. California Performance

12. California Performance 12 MMA – September 2018
$126
191 mil
$167
144 mil
Focusing on 12 MMA (Total of Oct 2017 through Sept 2018)
75.3%
$23.9 bil
California 12 MMA – 9/2018

13. California YoY Percent Change 12 MMA – September 2018
3.7%
1.8%
3.6%
1.9%
0.1%
5.5%
California, 12 MMA – 9/2018

14. Last 12 Month’s Performance
Lowest Occupancy was 64.6% in December, which also had the lowest ADR and RevPAR rate of the last 12 months.
Highest ADR was $ in July, where we also saw the highest OCC rate at 82.6%
Highest RevPAR growth month was in November, where we saw a 6.8% YOY increase
California Occ, ADR, RevPAR – by month, October 2017 through September 2018

15. Day of Week Rates 12 MMA – September 2018
California, ADR, 12MMA September 2018

16. Day of Week Occupancy 12 MMA – September 2018
California, Occupancy, 12MMA September 2018

17. California California Performance YTD Supply 143m 1.9% Demand 110k
1.8%
Occ
76.8% 0%
ADR
$170
3.8%
RevPAR
$130
3.7%
Year to Date September 2018
California
Switching gears to YTD (Jan- Sept)
Occupancy is about 10 percentage points above the Total US YTD
California YTD – 9/2018

18. September Year to Date Performance California
California – USD - YTD September 2015,2016,2017,2018

19. Regional Review

20. California Central Coast goes all the way up to Salinas

21. Occupancy YTD 2016, 2017 & 2018
Market Level % Change, Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR, September YTD 2016, 2017, 2018

22. Average Daily Rate YTD 2016, 2017 & 2018
Market Level % Change, Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR, September YTD 2016, 2017, 2018

23. Revenue per Available Room YTD 2016, 2017, 2018
Market Level % Change, Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR, September YTD 2016, 2017 and 2018

24. Occupancy Growth is Slowest YTD
Market Level % Change, Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR, September YTD 2018

25. Transient and Group Occupancy
LA had the only increase in transient occupancy (1.9% yoy)
Both LA and Anaheim had a drop in group occupancy
San Diego has the same occ in both segments as last year, but a 25% bump in contract occupancy
Market Segmentation, Occupancy, Upper Upscale and Luxury, September 2018 YTD

26. Transient and Group ADR
Market Segmentation, ADR, Upper Upscale and Luxury, September YTD 2018

27. Look to the Future

28. Pipeline Under Contract In Construction: Final Planning: Planning:
Vertical construction on the physical building has begun.
Final Planning:
Construction will begin within the next 12 months.
Planning:
Construction will begin in more than 13 months.
Under Contract

29. Southern California Pipeline
Phase
Properties
Rooms
In Construction
102
14,007
Final Planning
120
15,833
Planning 98
14,698
Under Contract
320
44,538
This is more than August last year.
Including Moon 4,000 in Indio (planning stage)
Combined Los Angeles/Long Beach, Anaheim/Santa Ana, San Diego, Riverside/San Bernardino, Arizona Area (California Projects only), California Central Coast, and California South/Central Market Pipeline, by Phase, Rooms, September 2018

31. Upper Upscale has the Most Rooms Under Construction
Pipeline by Stage per market, September 2018

32. Upscale and Upper Midscale = Most Rooms Coming
4,000 in the Independent Scale is from the Indio
Southern California Pipeline, Rooms In Pipeline , Rooms, by Scale, September 2018

33. Fairmont Century Plazza Dazzler Hotel Clark
Largest In Construction Properties
J.W. Marriott
Anaheim Downtown
466 Rooms – Luxury
Fairmont Century Plazza
Los Angeles
394 Rooms - Luxury
Dazzler Hotel Clark
348 Rooms – Upscale
Sycuan Casino Hotel
El Cajon
300 Rooms – Independent
Courtyard Monterey Park
Monterey Park
288 Rooms – Upscale
Southern California Pipeline, In Construction, 5 largest by room count, September 2018

34. 2018 Year End Supply Forecast North America Markets, Aug 2018 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically)
-2% to 2%
2% to 4%
4% to 6%
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA
Atlanta, GA
Dallas, TX
Chicago, IL
Boston, MA
Denver, CO
Miami-Hialeah, FL
Detroit, MI
Nashville, TN
Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA
Houston, TX
Seattle, WA
Oahu Island, HI
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA
Orlando, FL
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI
Phoenix, AZ
Montreal, QC
San Diego, CA
New Orleans, LA
San Francisco-San Mateo, CA
New York, NY
St. Louis, MO-IL
Philadelphia, PA-NJ
Toronto, ON
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL
Vancouver, BC
Washington, DC-MD-VA

35. 2019 Year End Supply Forecast North America Markets, Aug 2018 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically)
-2% to 2%
2% to 4%
4% to 6%
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA
Atlanta, GA
Denver, CO
Detroit, MI
Boston, MA
Nashville, TN
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI
Chicago, IL
Montreal, QC
Dallas, TX
New Orleans, LA
Houston, TX
Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA
Oahu Island, HI
Miami-Hialeah, FL
Phoenix, AZ
New York, NY
San Francisco-San Mateo, CA
Orlando, FL
St. Louis, MO-IL
Philadelphia, PA-NJ
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL
San Diego, CA
Toronto, ON
Seattle, WA
Vancouver, BC
Washington, DC-MD-VA

36. When to Expect the New Rooms in Southern California
Southern California Under Contract Pipeline, by room, by projected open date, September 2018

37. 2018 and 2019 Outlook

38. Notable Calendar Shifts Impacting Lodging Performance Data in 2018:
Easter: Shift from April to March (also affects Q1/Q2) Election Day 11/6: Likely low room demand the night before Halloween: Shift from TUE to WED, likely impacting full week Notable Market Level Events / Comps: Super Bowl: From Houston To Minneapolis San Francisco: Moscone Center Reopened, easy comps Q2/Q3 Washington, D.C.: Inauguration & Women’s March (January 2017) Houston: Hurricane Harvey – O ctober and all of Q Florida: Hurricane Irma – O ctober and all of Q California: Wildfires in Q4 2017

39. Outlook Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2018F – 2019F
Outlook
Metric
2018
Forecast
2019
Supply
2.0%
1.9%
Demand
2.6%
2.1%
Occupancy
0.6%
0.2%
ADR
2.4%
RevPAR
3.2%

40. 2018 Year End RevPAR Forecast Top North American Markets, Aug 2018 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically)
-5% to 0%
0% to 5%
5% to 10%
Houston, TX
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA
Miami-Hialeah, FL
Montreal, QC
Atlanta, GA
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI
St. Louis, MO-IL
Boston, MA
Toronto, ON 
Washington, DC-MD-VA
Chicago, IL
Vancouver, BC
Dallas, TX
Denver, CO
Detroit, MI
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA
Nashville, TN
New Orleans, LA
New York, NY
Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA
Oahu Island, HI
Orlando, FL
Philadelphia, PA-NJ
Phoenix, AZ
San Diego, CA
San Francisco-San Mateo, CA
Seattle, WA
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL
Note: RevPAR Growth forecast estimates are in local currency

41. 2019 Year End RevPAR Forecast Top North American Markets, Aug 2018 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically)
-5% to 0%
0% to 5%
5% to 10%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA
Atlanta, GA
Boston, MA
Chicago, IL
Dallas, TX
Denver, CO
Detroit, MI
Houston, TX
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA
Miami-Hialeah, FL
Montreal, QC
Nashville, TN
New Orleans, LA
New York, NY
Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA
Oahu Island, HI
Orlando, FL
Philadelphia, PA-NJ
Phoenix, AZ
San Diego, CA
San Francisco-San Mateo, CA
Seattle, WA
St. Louis, MO-IL
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL
Toronto, ON 
Vancouver, BC
Washington, DC-MD-VA
Note: RevPAR Growth forecast estimates are in local currency

42. Major Markets Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change)
RevPAR Outlook
2018
Forecast
2019
Anaheim/Santa Ana
2.6%
2.5%
Los Angeles/Long Beach
2.4%
2.7%
San Diego
3.3%

43. Business Development Executive, Destinations
Kelsey Waite
Business Development Executive, Destinations
@Kelsey_STR