1. Oncology Market Forecast
Health Care Industry Committee
Oncology Market Forecast
Ready-to-Use Presentation Slides

2. Cancer Volumes Increase as Mortality Slowly Declines
Growth Outlook
Cancer Volumes Increase as Mortality Slowly Declines
Trends in New Cancer Cases in the U.S.
Trends in Cancer Deaths in the U.S.
Source: American Cancer Society; Advisory Board research and insights.

3. U.S. National Cancer Incidence Projections
Incidence Projected to Rise Further as Population Ages
U.S. National Cancer Incidence Projections
Source: Clinical Operations Board Incidence Estimator; : Advisory Board research and insights.

4. Inpatient 5-Year Growth Rate Outpatient 5-Year Growth Rate
Surgeries Continue To Shift To Outpatient Setting
U.S. Surgical Volume Growth Rates
Total Breast Volume1, 2013 OP IP
Inpatient 5-Year Growth Rate
Outpatient 5-Year Growth Rate
Breast
Outpatient Breast surgeries will increase sharply, including, for example, 26 percent expected growth in image guided fine needle aspirations 7%
11%
n = 3,288,323
Total Thoracic Volume1, 2013
Thoracic
Percutaneous lung biopsy will rise 25 percent by 2018, and collapsed lung treatments will increase by 25 percent
10%
22%
n = 408,134
U.S. National volumes.
Source: Advisory Board Inpatient and Outpatient National Estimators; Advisory Board research and insights.

5. Five-Year U.S. Growth Trajectories Inducements and Barriers
Population and Market Factors Drive Procedure Growth
Five-Year U.S. Growth Trajectories
Inducements and Barriers
Inpatient and Outpatient,
Ageing population
Demographic
Surgical advancements shift care to outpatient setting, leading to lower inpatient volumes
Clinical
Continued outpatient shift could lead to higher acuity cases treated inpatient
Patient preference for full-service, hospital-based cancer centres for cancer treatment
Market
Diagnostics among previously uninsured generates new demand
High degree of competition between providers for high-revenue patient population 1
Tumour site categories include common procedures performed for each disease site, principally surgical resections, biopsies, and diagnostic procedures
Source: The Advisory Board’s Inpatient and Outpatient Market Estimator tools; Advisory Board research and analysis.

6. Five-Year U.S. Growth Trajectories Inducements and Barriers
Reimbursement Changes Drive Hospital-Based Growth
Five-Year U.S. Growth Trajectories
Inducements and Barriers
Inpatient and Outpatient,
Cancer incidence expected to rise as average age increases
Demographic
Applications for IMRT expanding to new tumour sites; image guidance expected to enhance efficiency, appeal of this modality
Increasing use of oral therapies is reducing infusion center visits
Clinical
Radiation therapy fractions are declining due to hypofractionation and increased use of advanced treatment modalities
Market
Some commercial payors beginning to apply utilization controls
Shift from freestanding centers back to the hospital outpatient department for chemo and radiation therapy due to higher reimbursement
Source: The Advisory Board’s Inpatient and Outpatient Market Estimator tools; Advisory Board research and analysis.

7. Increased Screening Volumes
Four Forces Driving Growth in Oncology 1 2 3 4
Demographics
Shift to Outpatient
Increased Screening Volumes
Clinical Innovations
As the population ages and individuals live longer, more patients to present with cancer
Breast, prostate and colorectal likely to experience greatest increase as population over 65 rises
More procedures can be done in the outpatient setting, decreasing costs
Freestanding volumes shifting back to hospital outpatient departments due to reimbursement cuts
Rising number of lung CT screening programs increasing screening rates
Recent U,S, controversy over mammography and PSA testing may lead to volume declines
Minimally invasive surgical techniques key innovation, but value in question
Increasing prevalence of targeted therapies and treatment innovation create new options for patients
53%
63%
172 12
U.S. population growth of 65+ year olds from 2015 to 2030
Percent of mastectomies performed outpatient in the U.S. in 2013
Number of lung cancer CT screening centers of excellence in the U.S.
New molecular entities approved in the U.S. by the FDA in 2012, vs. 8 and 3 in 2011 and 2010
Source: “Projections of the Population by Selected Age Groups and Sex for the United States: 2015 to 2060,” U.S. Census data, 2013; Kantar Health; Clinical Operations Board Analysis; : Advisory Board research and insights.