2. Knowns and unknowns @julia_harnden
Next steps for school funding – key issues for implementing the National Funding Formula
Knowns and unknowns
@julia_harnden

3. Ultimate team sport – consultation / equitable distribution / Objectives of NFF – transparent , predictable , fair – in this together !

4. In reality experience of our members is they feel much more like this –on their own , face down head first at speed – knowing they want to get to the end – but how to get there still unclear. Too many twists and turns ahead. What do we know?

5. Known knowns Distribution and sufficiency are different
£1.3 billion additional investment
The chain of command hasn’t changed
Soft formula years
Ring-fencing the schools block

6. uncertainty Known unknowns Full transition to a hard NFF
The £1.3 billion
Minimum per pupil funding levels
How long will it take for all schools to reach the end point ?
Comprehensive spending review
uncertainty

7. uncertainty Unknown unknowns Consequences of
Spending review – risks and uncertainties
Legislative change
How the formula might change
How to complete a 3 year budget forecast?
uncertainty

8. What happens next ?
We are here
What are the risks?

9. Dwindling reserves & growing deficits
Maintained secondary schools
2013/ %
2016/ %
Avge in 16/17 £375k
Maintained primary schools
2015/16 4%
2016/17 7.1%
Avge in 16/17 £108K
EPI – School Funding Pressures in England March 18
Emerging evidence indicates that in 2016/17 up to 55% academy trusts show an in year deficit
£375 k = about 7 or 8 teachers

10. Unfunded cost pressures
Cost of living rises
On-costs risk
Apprenticeship levy
Supply costs
LGPS saw increases form April 17 ( 2016 triennial evaluation)
TPS – April 2019 employer contributions will rise form to over 18% ( poss reaching 20)
Recent ASCL survey – three quarters of repondants spend btw 1 and 5% on agency supply and almost one fifth spent btw 6&10% ( 10% around £430k in a low funded medium size sec school. symptomatic of recruitment crisis and market forces are at work here ( finders fees at £5000) & costs of supply rose by 35% BTW 2011 & 2015 SO glad that gov are working on developing a supply frameowk agreement – cant come soon enough.

11. High Needs Ring fencing has increased the pressure on the HN block
Formula weighted on historic spend but pupil numbers increasing
Implications for top-up funding ?
Need xtra special school places by 2022

12. Comprehensive spending review
When ?
DfE will use NFF to distribute 100% of available funding but
that could be the same , more or less than we have now……
Post 16 learner rate ?
Pupil premium ?

13. Workload – demand v capacity
System failure ..
Workload – demand v capacity
Capacity greater than Demand
Demand exceeds capacity