1. Enrollment Projections for D.C.’s Public Schools
A study of
Assuring Accuracy and Transparency
September 28, 2018
Kathleen Patterson
District of Columbia Auditor
Prepared by

2. Project Team Cooperative Strategies
National financial and demographic planning firm
21st Century School Fund
Policy research and advocacy organization specializing in public education facility equity
Urban Institute
Nonprofit research organization focused on improving public policy and practice

3. Motivations for the Study
Decisions are made based on enrollment projections
Budget:
Next-year projections
DCPS school-level budgeting (per-pupil and weighted sub-groups)
Charter facilities allowance
Charter 1st quarter payment (later quarters adjusted for actual enrollment)
Schools and Facilities:
Multi-year projections
Master Facilities Plans
DCPS capital planning
Charter LEA openings and enrollment ceilings

4. Project Timeline and Process

5. Data Collection School Supply Data Student Demand
Inventory of active DCPS, PCS and independent schools
School locations
DCPS facility conditions
Enrollment capacity
PCSB enrollment ceilings
Historical enrollments
City population in HS boundary
College attainment per HS boundary
Median home sale price by HS boundary
My School DC lottery data
Building permit count by HS boundary

6. Comparable Districts / States
Process Interviews
D.C.
Comparable Districts / States
Interviewed District agencies and community stakeholders:
Office of the Deputy Mayor for Education (DME)
DC Public Schools
DC Public Charter School Board
Office of the State Superintendent of Education (OSSE)
District Office of Planning (OP)
Association of Independent Schools of Greater Washington
Charter school LEA leaders
Districts Interviewed:
Columbus Public Schools
Denver Public Schools
Oakland Unified School District
The School District of Philadelphia
States Interviewed:
California
Colorado
Ohio
Pennsylvania

7. Current Projections
Currently the District of Columbia only projects one year out.
Five and 10-year projections were completed by various outside consultants as part of previous Master Facilities Plans.
How Are the Projections Doing?
At the district level, most projections were fairly accurate one year out, but error rates increased significantly for future years.

8. Key Findings
• D.C. public school enrollment is projected to grow between 12,099 and 17,350 students in the next 10 years.
• Projection methods are least accurate for schools with high mobility rates.
• Projection process can be made more accurate, transparent and efficient.

9. How do we make the projections more accurate and transparent?
Maintain a central repository of comprehensive historical data on students, schools and demand factors.
Produce and share five- and 10-year baseline projections alongside the next year projection process annually.
Calculate and share a student mobility index.
While a 1-year mobility index would be a minimum recommendation; 1, 2, and 3-year indices would be ideal
Present school-level (DCPS) and charter LEA staff with baseline projections by school along with data used to justify preliminary adjustments.
Conduct and share an annual review of enrollment projections compared with actual audited enrollments.

10. Improving Enrollment Projections – 15-Step Process
Maintain 10 Years of Historical Data
Responsible agency: OSSE
Collect Last 15 Years of Birth Data
Responsible agency: OSSE
Identify Geographic Feeder Patterns
Responsible agency: OSSE
Calculate Cohort Survival Ratios
Responsible agency: OSSE
Create Baseline Next Year, Five Year, and Ten Year Enrollment Projections
Responsible agency: OSSE

11. Improving Enrollment Projections – 15-Step Process (cont’d)
Calculate Student Mobility Index
Responsible agency: OSSE
Post Enrollment Projections For Every School Along With All Supporting Data
Responsible agency: OSSE, DCPS, and PCSB
Develop System-Wide Enrollment Projections to Align Post-Baseline Projections To
Responsible agency: OSSE
Review Baseline Projections, Make and Document All Adjustments
Responsible agency: DCPS and PCSB
DCPS and PCSB Share Their Preliminary Adjusted Projection
Responsible agency: DCPS, PCSB, DCPS schools, and Charter LEAs

12. Improving Enrollment Projections – 15-Step Process (cont’d)
DCPS and PCSB Submit Their Final Next Year Five-Year Projections To the ODME
Responsible agency: DCPS and PCSB
ODME Rolls Up Final Approved Projections Compares Them to Baseline and System-Wide Enrollment Projections
Responsible agency: ODME
ODME Reconciles Enrollment Projections with System-Wide Enrollment Projections
Responsible agency: ODME, DCPS, and PCSB
ODME Certifies the Next Year Projection
Responsible agency: ODME
Annual Enrollment Projection Review
Responsible agency: OSSE

13. Interactive Dashboard
Available at dcauditor.org
Due to FERPA privacy requirements, any subgroup information that is representative of less than 10 students or encompasses all students may have been suppressed.

14. Next Steps Continuous improvement
District should continue to do this work and update and add to the interactive tool
We hope this report will lead to more and continued conversation and understanding around the enrollment projections process and how important it is to make these projections in a public, accurate, and efficient way
Increased Transparency & Access
Increased Use
Better Quality Data
Better Enrollment Projections

15. Questions?

16. Acknowledgements
We would like to extend our appreciation to the Office of the D.C. Auditor for the opportunity to provide this study.
In addition, we would like to thank the agencies that provided the data analyzed in this study.
They include:
Association of Independent Schools of Greater Washington
D.C. Health, Center for Policy Planning & Evaluation
D.C. Office of Planning (OP)
D.C. Public Charter School Board (PCSB)
Department of General Services (DGS)
District of Columbia Public Schools (DCPS)
My School D.C.
Office of the Deputy Mayor of Education (DME)
Office of the Chief Financial Officer (OCFO)
Office of the Chief Technology Officer (OCTO)
Office of the State Superintendent of Education (OSSE)
Public Charter Schools (PCS)

17. Contact Info:
Tracy Richter, Cooperative Strategies
Mary Filardo, 21st Century School Fund
Megan Gallagher, Urban Institute
This presentation was provided to the Council of the District of Columbia on September 28, 2018, at the John A. Wilson Building, Washington, D.C.