1. IDENTIFYING THE KEY TRENDS REGARDING THE TRANSPORT CONCEPTS OF THE FUTURE
Alkiviadis Tromaras, Efthymis Papadopoulos, Aggelos Aggelakakis
Centre for Research and Technology Hellas/Hellenic Institute of Transport
ICTTE Belgrade 27th October 2018

2. Contents Introduction Aim of the work- Methodology
Identified transport concepts
Conclusions

3. 1. Introduction
The EU transport sector plays significant role in ensuring sustainable economic growth.
10 million jobs representing 4.6% GDP
Better quality of life
Movement of goods, people, services
Major challenges include:
traffic congestion, oil dependency, greenhouse gas emissions, ageing infrastructure, growing competition from other transport markets
To overcome current and future challenges
innovative transport solutions
Research and innovation (R&I) support
The EU transport system is in transitional period
New disruptive transport concepts and technologies are emerging

4. 2. Methodology
Aim
Identify key trends regarding the transport concepts of the future
Indicate how people and goods will be transported in the future based on literature
Passenger
Freight
Desk research on :
Forward looking research transport research projects - Mobility4EU,FUTRE,RACE 2050, OPTIMISM, METRIC, IKNOW
Transport industry forward looking reports/ technology-oriented websites and private/initiatives

5. 2. Methodology- Definition
Literature gap for precise definition
Definition: a concept or idea that presents how mobility takes place between two places, referring to the movement of passengers or freight. It may also describe the vehicle and the way that transportation or mobility takes place

6. 2. Methodology- examples
Automation – autonomous vehicles (AVs): This concept suggests that mobility will be automated, including any type of autonomous vehicle/vessel
Electrification – electric vehicles (EVs): This concept suggests a shift from conventional fuels towards electricity, including any type of electrified vehicle/vessel
Mobility as a Service (MaaS): MaaS is already a well know concept focusing on shifting from ownership of personal vehicles towards services that offer mobility as a product, such as ride-sharing, car-sharing, ride-hailing
Hyperloop: This concept refers to mobility using underground high-speed rail

7. 3. Identified transport concepts
Slow Travel / Slow Logistics
Superfast Ground and Underground Transportation
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
Magnetic Mobility, Magnetic Levitation
Personal Air Transportation, "Flying Cars", Flying Taxis"
Seamless Transport Chains – Multimodality, Intermodality
Automation
Noiseless Transport
Mega Aircrafts
Delivery Drones
Electrification
Vertical Transportation
Small Vehicles Developed Fit-For-Urban-Purpose
Expandable Cars
Smart Use of Travel Time
Shared Mobility, On- Demand Mobility, Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
Private Car Ownership, Luxury Vehicles
Seamless Security Checks, Innovative Check - In Processes
Capsules Transported by Carrier Aircraft
Blue Modal Shift
Floating Delivery hubs
Bus Rapid Transit Corridors
Co-Modality
Freight Consolidation Hubs, Freight Distribution Centres
Urban Cross-Modal Logistics
Personal Mobility Devices
High-Speed Rail
“Pragmatic Cars" and "Fun Cars"
Urban Cable Cars
Parcels into the Receivers' Car Trunk
Delivery Boxes
Crowd Delivery
Quite Night Urban Deliveries
Freight Shuttle Systems
Smart, Dynamic and Interactive Highways

8. 3. Identified transport concepts
7 most cited concepts were extracted for passenger and freight respectively
Some concepts were relevant to both passenger/freight sectors i.e.:
Electrification, automation, MaaS/FaaS
Identified time horizon of implementation based on literature:
Short ( )
Medium ( )
Long term ( )

9. 4. Future transport concepts- Passenger
Passenger Transport - applicable Transport Concepts
Total Number of Citations
Road
Aviation
Rail
Waterborne
Timeline for Implementation
Automation – Passenger Transport (autonomous cars, aircrafts, trains, vessels) 34 +
Medium term
Shared Mobility, On-Demand Mobility, MaaS 29 -
Electrification – Passenger Transport (electric cars, trains, aircrafts, vessels) 26
Seamless Transport Chains – Multimodality, Intermodality 20
Long term
Personal Air Transportation, "Flying Cars", “Flying Taxis” 15
Smart Use of Travel Time 13
High-Speed Rail for Passenger Transport 9
Superfast Ground and Underground Transportation, Hyperloops

10. 4. Future transport concepts-freight
Freight Transport - applicable Transport Concepts
Total Number of Citations
Road
Aviation
Rail
Waterborne
Pipeline
Timeline for Implementation
Shared Mobility, On-Demand Mobility, MaaS, FaaS, LaaS 29 +
N/A
Medium term
Seamless Transport Chains – Multimodality, Intermodality 20
Long term
Automation – Freight Transport (autonomous trucks, trains, vessels) 18
Electrification – Freight Transport (electric trucks, trains, aircrafts, vessels) 16 -
Delivery Drones 10
Short term
Superfast Ground and Underground Transportation, Cargo Tubes, Underground Freight Pipelines 9
Freight Consolidation Hubs, Freight Distribution Centres 6

11. Dominant transport concepts (1/6)
Automation across all transport sectors
Road fully autonomous cars and highway platooning
Aviation (automation already exists in avionics systems and traffic management)
Rail- 50% of metro lines to be fully automated by Trials of autonomous trains already in action
Waterborne
Yara Birkeland vessel
Svitzer Hermod vessel
MUNIN project
Shared mobility, on-demand mobility, MaaS, TaaS, FaaS, LaaS
One of the most cited concepts
Whim – Helsinki, UbiGo – Gothenburg, Qixxit – Germany, Moovel – Germany, Beeline – Singapore, SMILE – Vienna, Bridj – Boston Kansas City, Washington, Communauto/Bixi – Canada

12. Dominant transport concepts (2/6)
Electrification- includes electric, fuel cell vehicles and electrification of vehicle systems
One of the most commonly referred concept
Road: 9-20 million vehicles by 2020, mill by 2025
Aviation: Electric propulsion envisaged for small aircrafts up to 100 seats. Fuel cells for auxiliaries
Rail: Electricity already used. Fuel cell pilots by Alstom, Siemens
Waterborne:
20+ projects using hydrogen fuel cells have been carried out since early 2000
2,500 ships in the world are powered by electric propulsion using diesel electric, hybrid systems or battery

13. Dominant transport concepts (3/6)
Seamless transport chains
seamless logistics
seamless national and international travel for passengers
seamless transport chains as a result of MaaS
establishment of multimodal centres and intermodal mega-hubs
integration of all transport modes
Personal air transportation
Flying cars, taxis- by 2030
CityAirbus, Vahana, PopUp, Ehang 184, Volocopter 2X, Lilium and Uber Elevate

14. Dominant transport concepts (4/6)
Delivery drones:
Amazon, Google, Alibaba, UPS, DHL and Wal-Mart have already started experimenting with such systems
Urban usage or for remote areas
drones will deliver about 200 million lightweight parcels across Europe in SESAR
Adoption before 2030
Smart use of travel time
Result of autonomous driving
surfing the web/car-based media consumption, working/multitasking, studying, sleeping/relaxing, watching movies, online shopping

15. Dominant transport concepts (5/6)
High speed rail
High-speed rail as an attractive alternative to aviation, especially for medium and even long-distance passenger travel
High-speed rail as a cheaper, greener and more sustainable transport alternative
Need for a complete European high-speed rail network
Hyperloop
Virgin Hyperloop One, that aims to provide Dubai by 2021
TransPod that is focused on building a Toronto-Montreal hyperloop.

16. Dominant transport concepts (6/6)
Freight consolidation hubs/distribution centres
Potential use at port, airport, market, rail inland hub centric or at the outskirts of cities
Shifting the distribution of freight to inner city using smaller electric vehicles or during night time using autonomous vehicles
Automation will be required
Superfast Ground and Underground Transportation, Cargo Tubes, Underground Freight Pipelines
CargoCap
Cargo sous terrain (CST)

17. 5. Conclusions
Researched how passengers and goods will be transported in the future based on literature review
Defined the term transport concepts
Automation across all transport sectors
Shared mobility, on-demand mobility, MaaS, TaaS, FaaS, LaaS
Electrification
Seamless transport chains
Personal air transportation
Delivery drones
High speed rail
Freight consolidation hubs/distribution centres
Superfast Ground and Underground Transportation,