1. Welcome to class of Discovering Opportunities and Forecasting International Demand Dr. Satyendra Singh Professor, Marketing and International Business University of Winnipeg Canada

2. Discovering Demand/Opportunities through Marketing Research
Issues with international research
Communication across cultural barriers
Adaptation of research tool
Secondary data
Primary data
Estimating foreign demand/opportunities
Analyzing/Interpreting research information
Communicating with decision makers

3. Top 20 Marketing Research Firms ($)

4. Top 25 Marketing Research Firms (%)

5. Secondary Data Problem definition Availability of data
No government agency, proxy, language barrier
Reliability of data
Too optimistic government, false data reporting—transfer of goods between countries, tax policies—match production with sales
Comparability of data
Old data (not up-to-date), not frequently collected, data are reported in different categories—definition of superstore, manager
Validating secondary data
Judgment validity—check for correlations e.g. diapers and babies

6. Primary Data Ability to communicate opinions Willingness to respond
Must have the product, understand usefulness
Willingness to respond
Males, maids, prestige, socially desirable answers, suspicious character—researcher, in-store cooperation, political interference
Sampling in field surveys
Sampling problems, no street names, no house nos., no accurate maps, outdated tel. Directory, limited use of questionnaire/tel. method, lack of demographic details
Language and comprehension
Language barrier, equivalent concept e.g. def of family, literacy, back translation and parallel translation, conservative responses (Japan vs. USA)

7. Estimating Market Demand
Historical data, if available
Production + Import
Expert opinion
Poll experts—own sales managers, distributors, consultants, government officials—for size and growth
Triangulation—compare estimates produced by different sources
Analogy (chain-ratio method)
Establish correlation between product and GDP/sales/…

8. Analyzing and Interpreting Research Information
Cultural understanding
Local interpreter
Adaptive research methodology
More pictures, focus group
Skeptical about primary or secondary data
Correlate with other sources—governments…

9. Vals—The Values and Lifestyle (USA)
Innovators
Take-charge
Sophisticated
Curious
Survivors
Nostalgic
Constrained
Cautious
Thinkers
Reflective
Informed
Content
Believers
Literal
Loyal
Moralistic
Achievers
Goal oriented
Brand conscious
Conventional
Strivers
Contemporary
Imitative
Style conscious
Experiencers
Trend setting
Impulsive
Variety seeking
Makers
Responsible
Practical
Self-sufficient

10. Vals—Values and Lifestyle (JAPAN)
Innovator segments show a distinct and individualistic self-concept, high Levels of involvement and activity in areas of personal interest, and enthusiasm for innovations.
Adapter segments tend to follow the trends started by the Innovators in their interest areas, but at moderate levels of involvement and activity.
Pragmatic segments show slightly below average involvement and activity; flexible behavior, few distinct interests, and avoidance of risk.
Sustainers show low levels of activity, a focus on the past, and resistance to social change and innovations

11. Communicating with Decision Makers

12. Group Exercise
Q1. What is the difference between Product 1 and Product 2? Comment.
Q2. Forecast demand for the next 4 weeks for both products.
Q3. Justify the forecasting methods used for both products.
Q4. Write any assumptions, if any, when using forecasting methods.

13. Group Exercise Q1. Predict demand for Tyres in 2018?
Year
Snowfall (inches)
Demand for tyres
2007
25.6
2050
2008
27.6
1944
2010
22.4
2250
2011 24
1700
2012
28.2
1842
2013
22.2
2404
2014
23.4
1756
2015
25.2
1780
2016
23.8
2144
2017
24.6
1862
2018 26
 ??
Q1. Predict demand for Tyres in 2018?
Q2. Do you find seasonality?
Q3. Do you find cycle?
Q4. Do your find randomness?