1. Transition and inclusive development in Sub-Saharan Africa
Antonie de Kemp
Policy and Operations Evaluation Department
Include conference 21 November 2018

2. Contents
Development of economic growth, inequality and poverty in Sub- Saharan Africa
Why economic growth did not translate in to a higher reduction of poverty
Policy options

3. Economic growth

4. Poverty did not decrease equally:
Reduction of extreme poverty from 58% to 41%
Increase in the number of poor people from 376 million to 389 million
About 1/3 lives in fragile countries

5. Fragile contexts (OECD)

6. The example of Rwanda
Percentage poor 2001
Percentage poor 2014

7. Causes:
Increase in private consumption was lower than economic growth, due to:
High public expenditure (larger reduction of multidimensional poverty, higher HDI)
High private investments (mining, construction)
High intensity of poverty (high poverty gap)
High inequality
Demographic development
Structure of economic growth

8. Poverty and inequality:

9. Governance and inequality

10. Development of inequality in six countries

11. Demographic development

12. Dependency children and youngsters (<20)

13. Structure of economic development
Economic growth caused by:
Production and export of natural resources (resource boom)
Recovery after conflict (Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique)
Government expenditure (aided by ODA and debt relief) and private investment (mining, construction)
The use of more land for agriculture
Increase of the services sector (telecommunications)
Hardly an economic transition towards a modern economic development

14. No structural transformation of the economy:
Productivity in agriculture remains low, contributing to high food prices
Enclave character of the mining industry
Manufacturing sector remains small and does not offer much employment
Dutch disease effects negatively impact the competitiveness of local producers on the international (China, India)
Dual character of services: employment mainly in informal low productive services
Jobless growth

15. Contribution of sectors to GDP and employment

16. Development manufacturing

17. Comparison Burkina Faso Ethiopia Rwanda Senegal Tanzania Uganda
Economic growth
0/+ ++ - +
Poverty --
Poverty reduction
Multidimensional poverty
Inequality
Good governance
Government effectiveness
Population policy
Tax revenue
ODA per capita

18. Challenges:
Economic growth was and is not sustainable and not inclusive
Sub-Saharan Africa will not realise SDGs 1 and 10
High urbanisation will lead to a further congestion in the cities without the creation of many new jobs
Annually million African youngsters enter the labour market
A large majority does not find a job with an income above the poverty level
The factors contribute to frustration and radicalisation
Risks of a ‘trickle down’ of instability from the MENA region (the ring behind the ring)

19. Megacities

20. Policy options
Increase agricultural productivity, especially focusing on smaller farmers (land reform and ensuring land rights)
Development of an agro-industry
Strengthening (rural) infrastructure
Strengthening construction, greening of the economy, tourism, and employment in health and education
Education, education, education: focused on connection to the labour market
Basic health care and SRHR
Cash transfer programmes