1. Advanced Approaches to System Modeling
Natalie Matthews, Abt Associates
Mary Scwhartz, Abt Associates

2. Advanced Approaches to System Modeling Matthews and Schwartz, Abt
Intro myself (and any co-presenters)
Who’s in the room?
CoC stakeholders
HMIS stakeholders TA
HUD
Other?
What are folks experience with system modeling?

3. What is your experience with system modeling?
No experience, not sure what system modeling is
Familiar with the concept of system modeling, but haven’t had an opportunity to do it yet
Been there, done that, have the t shirt!
Intro myself (and any co-presenters)
Who’s in the room?
CoC stakeholders
HMIS stakeholders TA
HUD
Other?
What are folks experience with system modeling?

4. Learning Objectives Identify and discuss the system modeling process
Understand the data and resources necessary to complete the system modeling process
Preview HUD’s new tool to assist with system modeling, called the SPIST

5. Acronyms
SPIST: System Performance Improvement Strategies Tool; a web-based system modeling tool in development for CoCs
LSA: Longitudinal System Analysis; a HUD report, produced from a CoC’s HMIS and submitted via HDX 2.0

6. System Modeling
Data driven planning process, where a community develops a model of the optimal system to prevent and end homelessness in their CoC
Ideally, this process is iterative and is inclusive of key stakeholders (important to think of this as much more than a “data project”)

7. Example of System Modeling: Washington, D.C. (Homeward DC)
Led to increased funding from a broad group of stakeholders
$23 million in new investments
$100 million for affordable and supportive housing
Information on report is available at
Homeward DC plan supported by broad group of stakeholders
District funding in first year:
$23 million in new investments to jumpstart implementation of the plan
$100 million for affordable housing and supportive housing
Plan has many strategies to leverage other resources and improve practice and performance

9. Introduction to System Modeling
In most communities current systems do not have the resources or interventions to rapidly end homelessness for all households experiencing homelessness each year
Systems are learning how to end homelessness – proving it for Veterans
It is hard to reallocate – usually a program-centered decision instead of a person-centered decision

10. Thinking of an Optimal System
If you could start with a blank slate, what would your optimal system look like?
How would you serve people differently?
What inventory would your optimal system have?
How much would it cost to have an optimal system to meet the needs of every person experiencing homelessness each year?
Think for a minute: If you had a blank slate – if you had the money that is spent for various homeless programs but no actual programs – what would you do? What would a new system to meet the needs of everyone experiencing homelessness in your community look like? Would it be exactly like the system you have today?
Not starting with current system performance or inventory – starting with the data CoCs have and the best available information, including coordinated entry data, about what people need to rapidly end their homelessness for good. Person-centered approach.
Once you have this model you can use it to create a plan to guide reallocation

11. Vision of an Optimal System
A homeless crisis response system that has enough housing and services of the right type to:
Prevent homelessness when possible
Rapidly and successfully end homelessness when it occurs so people exit to housing and remain housed with the least amount of assistance needed
A community with this kind of system would be community where homelessness is rare, brief and non-recurring
Relationship to System Performance Measures
Prevent homelessness ( SPM 3 # of homeless persons and SPM 5 # of newly homeless persons)
Rapidly exit people from homelessness (SPM #1 LOTH)
Successfully exit people from homelessness (SPM # 7b Successful PH Exits and SPM #2 returns to homelessness)
Does your current system have the right mix of interventions to do this?
How do you ensure you are effectively using resources?

12. Guiding Principles Person-centered Housing First
Permanent housing focused
Side doors to projects and system closed
Coordinated entry used to:
determine best intervention for each individual or family
fill all project vacancies
Committee members not representing organization or projects – need to think about best way to serve people experiencing homelessness

13. What is System Modeling?
Tool to assist CoCs to develop a vision of the set of interventions that would more effectively serve everyone who becomes homeless
Process to help CoCs understand how different levers such as length of stay in projects and in the system, targeting of programs and change in operations can affect performance
Model of an optimized system can help communities estimate the resources needed to meet the needs of homeless households and develop a plan for the transition to an optimized system
Creates an inventory of the interventions needed to resolve the homelessness of all individuals and families presenting to the system annually BUT doesn’t determine the intervention needed for any particular individual or family – that is role of coordinated entry and client preferences
A tool that can take the data a CoC knows about people experiencing homelessness and model what an optimized system would look like – once have that model than can estimate costs and plan transition
We have used this process to develop multi-year plans to allow for transition of existing inventory to new inventory – DC, LA, Dayton

14. System Modeling Process

15. Step 1: Program Models
What housing and services interventions would be needed in an optimized system?
Who would need the each type of program?
For how long?
What housing resources and/or services would be provided each type of program?
Hard to step away from what programs currently exist in the CoC and look at what people really need – CE assessment data and master list can help – Challenge for Committee
Need to keep program models updated as go through process – ultimately that is template for contracting, monitoring and performance evaluation

16. Step 2: Understand Current System
Estimate annual number of households experiencing homelessness
Review system utilization data:
Length of stay in projects
Combination of projects used as a pathway to permanent housing
Exits to permanent housing from different program types
LSA data will be HUGELY helpful with the items listed above, as all are included in the LSA
Refer to LSA here to help with education about that data set?
Adjust HMIS data as needed with other data – DV, unsheltered, projects not in HMIS – goal is to have a good foundation of the number of people experiencing homelessness
CH number includes all unsheltered on the night of the PIT

17. Annual Demand
Adjust HMIS data as needed with other data – DV, unsheltered, projects not in HMIS – goal is to have a good foundation of the number of people experiencing homelessness
CH number includes all unsheltered on the night of the PIT
No chronic family households because of system utilization patterns that created long LOS without it being clear that it was the family’s needs that caused the LOS

18. Map Current System
Think about how people use your current system and how you would like your system to function
Look at where people come from, what projects people use in what sequence, what is expected at the end of each project. How does this affect the System Performance Measures you will need to report soon?
Credit to CSH

19. Step 3: Develop Service Pathways and Length of Stay
Develop pathways through the system that people are most likely to use
Ex. Shelter to RRH to PH exit
Estimate what percentage of people will need each type of pathway
Ex. Coordinated entry data shows that 40% of families need rapid re-housing assistance
Estimate how long people will stay at each program in each pathway
Ex. Shelter stay 1 month then RRH 6 months then exit to PH
Community discussion – start from current patterns of system usage and from CE data – focus on getting people to housing, shortening length of time in shelter
An art based on data and best possible research and best estimates. An iterative process with a lot of adjustments.
This is difficult work to keep the proposed program models at the front of everyone’s mind instead of having stakeholders focused on what is currently happening in projects.
Need strong leadership.

20. Step 3: Developing Pathways
Picture from additional work we did to model youth system
Gave each planning group 100 cents representing 100% of the people presenting for services each year
Asked them to develop pathways through the homeless system – think about natural program progressions or dependencies (ex. need shelter or other temporary housing to meet immediate needs before exit to PH with RRH)
Estimate what % need each pathway – takes a lot of discussion, data informed but we don’t have research to make definite estimates

21. Calculating Inventory
Estimate length of stay in each program in each service pathway
Use service pathways and length of stay estimates to calculate how many units or subsidy slots are needed at a point in time
Example – 10 families enter shelter each month
20% need shelter only for 2 weeks 1 bed
10% go to TH after 1 month in shelter bed
50% go to RRH after 1 month in shelter 5 beds
20% go to PSH after 2 months in shelter 4 beds
11 beds
This is a simple example to keep the math clear, not related to the DC charts in other slides
Use this approach with each program type to estimate how many units or subsidy or service slots are needed at a point in time to meet the needs of all people with a housing crisis who enter the homeless system in a year.

22. Showing the chart from the last year of DC’s five year plan – LOS reduced over time

23. Step 4: Modeling the Inventory to Meet Annual Need
For the fifth year of the DC plan – this is the point in time inventory needed to serve the 1,466 families expected to present for services each year using the service pathways and LOS projections from the previous slide
In contrast in Year 1 the LOS in shelter was 6 months and the inventory needed was 677 units

24. Step 5: Develop Cost Estimates
Survey current projects of each program type to gather comprehensive cost data
Develop estimated costs for each program type using program descriptions in program models document

25. Step 6: Transition to an Optimal System
If have cost estimates for current and optimal programs can project system costs during transition to develop resource requests
Know you may be thinking BUT how can I pay for a system big enough to provide interventions to everybody who seeks services? It is much easier to advocate for money if you have a specific plan that shows what is needed instead of an open-ended ask not grounded in data and defined assumptions

26. Tools and Resources for System Modeling

27. Leveraging Existing Reports for System Modeling
LSA includes information needed in Steps 2 and 3, regarding length of time homeless and pathways

28. Leveraging Existing Reports for System Modeling
Data included in the LSA that is helpful for determining pathways includes:
Households who used PSH only
Households who used ES/SH + PSH only
Households who used ES/SH+RRH+PSH only
Households who used RRH+PSH only
Households with any other project combinations not specified above

29. Upcoming Resource
HUD is working on the development of the SPIST, the System Performance Improvement Strategies Tool
Will be a Performance Module, to help understand the current system (including pathways) and will be built into HDX 2.0 (timing of module is TBD)
Will be two other modules (still in development), that will also help with system modeling
Once released, this web based tool will be available for use in the System Modeling process that we went through today
NOT intended to be passive; the SPIST is a tool; YOU determine what happens next