1. Aviation Weather Center Update
Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather
Jack May, Director
Aviation Weather Center All Hands
October 13, 2004

2. Rapid Fire Update on Many Fronts
Graphical Forecast for Aviation
Timeline of AWRP products
Verification of IFR accuracy.
Report Flight Plan Freezing Level for ADDS
GFA on ADDS
AWC Web Based Pireps
NWS Polygon Warnings Investigation

3. Graphical Forecast for Aviation
Goal
Capability
Mid CY2005
Experimental Graphical Hazards
Issued every 6 hours:
H+0, H+3, H+6, H+9, H+12
Icing, Turbulence, IFR
Text AIRMETs continue
January 2006
Graphical Hazards (Supplemental)
Issued every 3 hours:
AIRMETs every three hours from graphics.
January 2007
GFA (24 hours) as primary
Text AIRMETs as primary
Area Forecast generated from Graphics

4. AWRP Products Timeline Estimates for FY2005
20km CIP
12/31/04
NCWF 2hr
8/26/04
FIP Alaska
11/17/04
GTG FL
FIP Severity
5/17/05
Ceiling & Vsby Analysis
5/31/05
As of 8/9/04

5. AWRP Products Timeline Estimates for FY2006
FIP SLD
5/16/06
NCWF 2 Hour
3-6 Hour NCWF
Ocean Wx Diagnosis
5/31/06
Ceiling & Vsby CONUS Fcst
1Q/ FY2006
As of 8/9/04

6. Accuracy of Short Term Forecasts
Improve Accuracy of short term forecasts, especially of C&V to avoid over forecasting VNR and over-dissemination of warnings.

7. AIRMET Ceiling & Visibility Verification

8. GFA on ADDS Operational ADDS
NWS Budget Item for FY05 to prepare for FY06 supplemental products.
Presently under continuing resolution. No new spending.

9. Web Pilot Reports

10. Airline Contributors AWC Web PIREPs

11. NWS Polygon Warnings
Latitude/Longitude points are found at the bottom of all warnings today.

12. Polygon Advantages
Polygon Eliminates
Area False
Alarmed

13. One WFO Study (2004)
Over two convective seasons, issued 46 tornado warnings that covered:
38,280 square miles
Included 595 individual towns
Utilizing the polygon approach, the polygons covered:
10,374 square miles
Included 169 individual towns
If the polygon approach were in place:
Would have reduced our total warning area by 22,490 square miles
Would have unnecessarily warned 426 fewer towns
That's a reduction of 72%!

14. Polygon Advantages Shows specifically where the threat is
More accurately shows warning area on systems displaying warnings graphically
Reduction of risk area (Aviation as well as public)
Better graphical description capabilities
Wider local distribution via cell phones, PDAs, etc.
Increase NWS role in the confirmation part of the warning process
Private sector requirement for polygons
Better warning quality

15. Aviation Weather Center
Jack May, Director