1. THE IRAQ WAR AND US-ASIA RELATIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY
INSTITUTE FOR THE HISTORY OF NATURAL SCIENCE
CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
BEIJING APRIL 4, 2003

2. INTRODUCTION
SINCERE THANKS: PROF LIU, IHNS, CAS, DR. NEEDHAM, FU WANGFU.
TWO BROAD THEMES:
IRAQ WAR & AMERICAN DOMESTIC CONFLICT (BUSH VS. OPPOSITION).
MULTILATERAL ISSUES IN ASIA & IMPORTANCE OF US-CHINA RELATIONS.
MY VIEWS ON IRAQ WAR (CHINA: BEIDA, TV, GOVT)
US WAR VIOLATES UN CHARTER & INTERNATIONAL LAW.
WAR: HOW LONG? WHAT TACTICS? WHOSE NATIONALISM? AND WMD?
WAR IS DESTABILIZING UN, MIDDLE EAST, WORLD GEOPOLITICS.

3. IRAQ WAR: “TWO DIFFERENT AMERICAS”
“BUSH’S AMERICA”: REPUBLICAN RIGHT & STRONG IDEOLOGY.
ROOTS: COLD WAR, JAPAN, KOREA & VIETNAM.
1990s: ANGRY REPUBLICANS VS. CLINTON, ORGANIZATION & MEDIA.
MOMENTUM: 9/11 & HEROIC BUSH, “AXIS OF EVIL,” “BUSH DOCTRINE.”
IRAQ: “EVIL SADDAM,” DEMOCRACY/CAPITALISM, OIL, FAMILY.
WHOLE ADMINISTRATION, EXCEPT COLIN POWELL (HIS FUTURE?).
GOAL: “QUICK & CLEAN,” BOOST BAD ECONOMY, WIN 2004.

4. “TWO DIFFERENT AMERICAS” (page 2)
“ANOTHER AMERICA” IN OPPOSITION, BOTH NOISY & QUIET.
PROTEST: VIETNAM PROTEST POWER. GLOBALIZATION TO FOCUS.
OPPOSITION: MUCH GREATER, DEPENDS ON WAR, ECONOMY, CONFIDENCE.
OBSTACLES: POST-9/11 PATRIOTISM. PRESS SELF-CENSORING. POLLS?
2004: “DARK HORSE” CANDIDATE? REMEMBER 1968 & 1992.
ODDS ON 2004? RIGHT NOW, “0” BUT BY 2004, MAYBE “1 IN 3”
WHAT’S AT STAKE? THE FUTURE OF WORLD STABILITY.
BUSH WINS: UNILATERALISM, GLOBAL BULLYING, DESTABILIZATION.
OPPOSITION WINS: TOUGH, SENSITIVE MULTILATERALISM. US VALUES!

5. US & ASIA IN 21ST CENTURY: ARGUMENT FOR MULTILATERALISM
US & ASIA IN 21ST C: MULTIPLE POWERS, MULTIPLE PROBLEMS.
IRAQ NOT HIGHEST SECURITY THREAT! WHAT ARE THE BIG ISSUES?
MULTILATERALISM: : ASIAN STABILITY & GROWTH. LEADERSHIP!
ASYMMETRICAL ASIAN POWERS: US, CHINA, JAPAN, RUSSIA, INDIA.
MULTILATERAL ASIAN SECURITY THREATS:
KOREA: KIM’S MOTIVATIONS? MULTILATERAL & BILATERAL. MIL FORCE?
INDIA & PAKISTAN: EXPLOSIVE. DOMESTIC ISSUES. US TAINTED. PRC IGNORING.
MY POINT: ISSUES INVOLVE KEY ROLES FOR BOTH US & CHINA.

6. US & ASIA: ARGUMENT FOR MULTILATERALISM (p. 2)
US & CHINA: 21ST C. “MOST IMPORTANT RELATIONSHIP.”
CHINA’S MOMENT: ASIA’S STAR, SUCCESS & PROBLEMS, OPTIMISM.
US MOMENT: #1 SUPERPOWER, BUT FOR WHAT ENDS?
US-CHINA: POWERFUL HISTORY & YET “LOVE-HATE CYCLES.”
“NEW CHINA” & “ANOTHER AMERICA”: ASIAN STABILITY & GROWTH.
LONG-TERM: CAN WE HAVE ASIAN VISION & OVERCOME SUSPICION?
SHORT-TERM: CAN WE COPE WITH ONSLAUGHT OF UNILATERALISM?