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Evaluation of a Machine Learning-Based Prognostic Model for Unrelated Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Donor Selection  Ljubomir Buturovic, Jason Shelton,

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Presentation on theme: "Evaluation of a Machine Learning-Based Prognostic Model for Unrelated Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Donor Selection  Ljubomir Buturovic, Jason Shelton,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Evaluation of a Machine Learning-Based Prognostic Model for Unrelated Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Donor Selection  Ljubomir Buturovic, Jason Shelton, Stephen R. Spellman, Tao Wang, Lyssa Friedman, David Loftus, Lyndal Hesterberg, Todd Woodring, Katharina Fleischhauer, Katharine C. Hsu, Michael R. Verneris, Mike Haagenson, Stephanie J. Lee  Biology of Blood and Marrow Transplantation  Volume 24, Issue 6, Pages (June 2018) DOI: /j.bbmt Copyright © 2018 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Terms and Conditions

2 Figure 1 The process used to define the set of variables and the model used for validation. Biology of Blood and Marrow Transplantation  , DOI: ( /j.bbmt ) Copyright © 2018 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Terms and Conditions

3 Figure 2 A graph of relevant statistics for a large collection of SVM classifiers developed for the HCT donor selection application. Each dot represents a classifier, which labels donors as Preferred (or, equivalently, “POS”, for Positive) and NotPreferred (or, equivalently, “NEG”, for Negative). The x-axis is the proportion of donors labeled Preferred (ie, POS) by the classifier. The y-axis is the survival benefit (difference in survival at 5 years) conferred by the donors, compared with survival of recipients who received HCT from NotPreferred donors. A clinically attractive classifier, selected for the validation, is labeled by a red arrow. It is defined as the classifier that maximizes clinical benefit while labeling at least 10% of donors as Preferred. Biology of Blood and Marrow Transplantation  , DOI: ( /j.bbmt ) Copyright © 2018 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Terms and Conditions

4 Figure 3 Survival of recipients of donors labeled Preferred and NotPreferred. The graph was produced using 10-fold cross-validation (HR, .43; 95% CI, .28 to .67; log-rank P < .001). Biology of Blood and Marrow Transplantation  , DOI: ( /j.bbmt ) Copyright © 2018 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Terms and Conditions

5 Figure 4 Survival of recipients of donors labeled Poor and NotPoor by the less stringent model, in 10-fold cross-validation (HR, .75; 95% CI, .61 to .91; log-rank P = .003.) Biology of Blood and Marrow Transplantation  , DOI: ( /j.bbmt ) Copyright © 2018 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Terms and Conditions

6 Figure 5 Validation Kaplan-Meier graph for the primary classification model (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, .72 to 1.72; log-rank P = .62). Biology of Blood and Marrow Transplantation  , DOI: ( /j.bbmt ) Copyright © 2018 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Terms and Conditions

7 Figure 6 Exploratory model validation results at 5 years (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, .94 to 1.48; log-rank P = .148). Biology of Blood and Marrow Transplantation  , DOI: ( /j.bbmt ) Copyright © 2018 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Terms and Conditions

8 Figure 7 . Primary classification model validation results for patients with AML (HR,  2.01; 95% CI, 1.22 to 3.3; log-rank P = .005) (A) and patients with ALL (HR, .42; 95% CI, .17 to 1.02; log-rank P = .049) (B). Biology of Blood and Marrow Transplantation  , DOI: ( /j.bbmt ) Copyright © 2018 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Terms and Conditions

9 Figure 8 . Primary classification model training (cross-validation) results for patients with AML (HR, .56; 95% CI, .28 to 1.09; log-rank P = .083) (A) and patients with ALL (HR, .37; 95% CI, .21 to .66; log-rank P < .001) (B). Biology of Blood and Marrow Transplantation  , DOI: ( /j.bbmt ) Copyright © 2018 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Terms and Conditions


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