1. Climate Change Dr Mark Rehfisch Director of Development
British Trust for Ornithology
Citizen Science research charity with 40,000 volunteers
Remit to understand drivers biodiversity population change
Very strong in biodiversity monitoring (1923-) & modelling
40 PhD scientists working collaboratively in Europe, Africa, USA etc

2. Documenting Impacts: effects on bird communities
Warming leads to:
diversity specialisation
increase decrease
Davey et al. In review.
Global Ecology & Biogeography
Climate Change
Projecting future population change
Using long-term count / habitat data under 2080 low-high emissions scenarios
Renwick et al. In review. Journal Biogeography
1997
2080
Low
High
Informing Adaptation:
Resilience of Natura 2000 network
▲Sites gaining species (low, medium, high)
▼Sites losing species (low, medium, high)
Increase in species loss with
higher levels of climate change
BTO looking for partners for future EU work
Three components to our climate change work:
Documenting impacts
Long-term data provide evidence-base to inform policy
2. Projecting the future
Models inform the likely future extent of the problem
Informing adaptation
Models to quantify what can be done and evidence to test effectiveness of adaptation

3. Climate Change - summary
Long-term monitoring provides data for
- Documenting impacts
- Developing models to project the future & inform adaptation
Monitoring provides information about
- Productivity and survival of individual birds
- Changes in populations and communities
Targeted analyses enable
- Evidence of impacts to be collated to inform policy
- Adaptation solutions to be modelled and developed
- Monitoring to test the effectiveness of solutions