1. Simulation and Analysis of a Golf Course
Sarah Daugherty
MSIM 852 December 3, 2007

2. Simulated System Dynamics
9 hole course
Tee times: exp(11) minutes
Since golfers can begin to play a hole before the golfers in front of them finish it, each hole divided into parts:
Tee
Fairway (Par 3 = 0; Par 4 = 1; Par 5 = 2)
Green
USGA averages for pace of play
Par 4 = 15 minutes for group of 3 to 4 golfers

3. Implementation Arena Lessons learned: Next time:
Golf course modeling is complicated since players can start before others are finished on the same hole.
Next time:
Gather actual waiting times for each hole and fit to a distribution.

4. Results 40 Replications Average course waiting time: 11.08 minutes
Average number of players per day: 44

5. Analysis: Confidence Interval

6. Analysis: Initial Transient

7. Analysis: Batch Means
Confidence intervals are getting larger

8. Analysis: Autoregressive

9. Analysis: Control Variates
Y = exp(0.412)
Y does not explain X because:
We expect:

10. Analysis: ANOVA Introduced new system with tee times exp(9) minutes.
F crit is not very big
Implies treatments are similar, not different

11. Analysis: Paired Samples
Confidence interval shrinks for Difference

12. Questions/Discussion