1. Using logistic Regression to build a better Model of Dupuytren’s contracture recurrence
Brian Cohen, PhD Directors, Biometrics ACI Clinical
JSM 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia July 31, 2018
JSM, 2018

2. Hindocha et al (2006)
Reviewed records of 322 Dupuytren’s patients 4 years after fasciectomy.
Overall recurrence rate of 43.8%
Looked at 17 risk factors of recurrence
Factor
Overall Rate
Recur Rate OR
P-value
Garrod’s pad
12.7%
63.4%
2.50
0.006
Smoking
63.3%
39.5%
0.62
0.02
Alcohol Use
19.4%
55.6%
1.80
Male
80.9%
46.1%
1.72
0.04
Age of onset < 50 yrs.
47.5%
48.7%
1.47
0.05
Bilateral Disease
69.4%
46.7%
1.48
0.07
Alcohol Use= male:28 units per week, female: 21 units per week
JSM, 2018

3. Hindocha Diathesis Findings
Diathesis Factors: Gender, Bilateral Disease, Garrod Pads, Age of onset < 50 yrs., Family History
JSM, 2018

4. Xiaflex Recurrence Study (2015)
Prospectively followed 643 Dupuytren’s patients for 5 years after Xiaflex Injection
Overall recurrence rate of 48.6%
Looked at 24 risk factors of recurrence
Factor
Overall Rate
Recur Rate OR
P-value
Bilateral Disease
37.3%
62.3%
2.403
<0.001
TCI > 110 at Baseline
49.1%
59.4%
2.331
Family History
43.5%
55.6%
1.622
0.003
Alcohol Use
81.0%
50.9%
1.596
0.02
Age < 65
52.3%
53.0%
1.435
Epilepsy
2.3%
80.0%
4.345
Hand Trauma
19.9%
57.0%
1.521
0.04
Weight (< median)
48.8%
52.7%
1.373
0.05
Prior Surgery
38.1%
53.5%
1.364
0.06
High Alcohol Consumption
27.7%
54.5%
1.380
0.07
TCI = Total Contracture Index (sum of all baseline contractures), Weight median split based on gender, high alcohol consumption = male:14 units per week, female: 10 units per week
JSM, 2018

5. Xiaflex Diathesis Findings
New Model: Disease Severity (TCI ≥ 110), Current Age < 65 yrs., Alcohol consumption, Light weight, Family History
JSM, 2018