1. Livestock & Crop Outlook
Chad Hart
Iowa State University
Livestock information from
Lee Schulz, Department of Economics, Iowa State University
(515) ;

2. Beef: + 2015.Q4 Pork: + 2015.Q1 Total Poultry: +2012.Q4
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

3. Relative Changes in Beef & Cattle Prices
ALL
COMPRE
HENSIVE
FRESH
BOXED
IA/MN IA
RETAIL
BEEF
DIRECT
550 LB
CUTOUT
STEER
CALF
$/lb
$/cwt
2008
$3.97
$151.05
$91.39
$122.56
2009
$3.89
$139.53
$82.44
$112.24
2010
$4.02
$154.24
$94.25
$130.02
2011
$4.44
$178.71
$115.02
$150.38
2012
$4.69
$187.95
$122.70
$169.29
2013
$4.94
$193.18
$125.80
$173.53
2014
$5.60
$236.02
$153.84
$253.26
2015
$6.04
$235.25
$147.24
$253.33
2016
$5.73
$202.22
$119.54
$168.56
YR/YR Change (%)
-1.9%
-7.6%
-9.8%
-8.4%
3.3%
10.5%
14.3%
15.8%
10.4%
15.9%
22.0%
15.7%
5.7%
5.2%
6.7%
12.6%
2.8%
2.5%
13.4%
22.2%
22.3%
45.9%
7.8%
-0.3%
-4.3%
0.0%
-5.0%
-14.0%
-18.8%
-33.4%
Source: USDA/ERS, USDA/AMS

4. Data Source: USDA/ERS. FAPRI

5. 2017 Beef Cattle Market Situation
Cow-calf: Converging toward long-term levels
Though tremendous variability across producers
Backgrounding: Varies widely across situations
Opportunities but risk of owning cattle and managing risk
Feedlot: Worst behind us, still some red ink
Opportunities to ‘lock-in’ profits
Keeping in position is key
Cyclical price pendulum will swing back

6. Data Source: USDA/AMS

7. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center7 7

8. Data Source: USDA/NASS

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

14. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

15. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

16. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
170.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,065
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,320
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,435
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,120
5,550
5,450
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,224
5,400
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,422
1,445
1,470
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,900
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,620
14,220
Ending Stocks
2,215
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.40
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 16 16

17. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
88.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,307
4,180
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
435
Imports 72 33 24 25
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,528
4,640
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,940
1,945
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
128
135
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,025
2,125
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,093
4,205
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.60
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 17 17

18. Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

19. U.S. Meat Trade
Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19

20. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Corn Grind for Ethanol

23. Current Corn Futures
3.96
3.85
3.48
Source: CME Group, 3/21/2017

24. Current Soybean Futures
9.85
9.66
9.60
Source: CME Group, 3/21/2017

25. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

26. 2017/18 Crop Margins

27. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

28. Thank You! More information available at: Iowa Farm Outlook & News
Ag Decision Maker
ISU Estimated Livestock Returns
ISU Livestock Crush Margins