1. 2013-14 Dairy Outlook: Indiana Perspectives
Nicole Olynk Widmar and Mike Schutz
Purdue University

2. 2013 in Review
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

3. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Last official numbers released by USDA-NASS was for February 2013.
All data points following are LMIC estimates.

4. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.?
8/14/13
Source:
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

5. Slaughter Dairy Cows Managing US Herd Size?
With tight margins and high cull cow values … what next???
Dairy Cows
(1000s.)
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
08/15/2013

6. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
Production per Cow in Indiana
Very high digestibility
of drought -
stressed forages?
Or are cow numbers
significantly
underestimated?
Pounds
Total milk produced is known; assuming 175 thousand head for March and April; 176 thousand head (guess) for May and June … still huge increases.
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
10/16/2012

7. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS

8. Indiana State Trends June 1997 1875 1104 2979 140K 186M 1380 June 2000
1668
786
2454
148K
198M
1400
June
2006
1392
324
1716
166K
277M
1670
June
2012
1240
163
1403
176K
307M
1745
June
2013
1216
130*
1346
~175K
328M
~1874
Change
‘97 to ‘13
- 35%
- 88%
- 55%
+25%
+76%
+36%
Grade A Herds
Grade B Herds
Farms
Cows
Milk Production
Production/cow
*Annual decline in Manufacturing Grade herds driven by state code changes to SCC limit
of 750,000 cells/ml (same as Grade A), and requirement of running hot water in milk house.
(Dairy Program, IBOAH & Indiana Ag. Statistics)

9. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

10. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
8/14/13
Source:

11. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

12. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
Source:

13. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
Source:

14. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS

15. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News

16. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS

17. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News

18. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
June 2013 exports were 2nd highest month ever, totalling $596 million
 (2nd to May 2013) totalling $631 million
* Fiscal year 2013 up 9% from previous period
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

19. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

20. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

21. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
Milk Price
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

22. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
Milk Class Prices (8/15/2015) $
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
8/15/2013

23. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
October 2013 Milk – as of
25% chance less than $17.30
25% changes more than $19.25
Most likely price at maturity: $18.16
Source: Jim Hilker's Market Outlook & Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Grain & Livestock;
Michigan State University,
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

24. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
December 2013 Milk – as of
25% chance less than $15.77
25% changes more than $18.15
Most likely price at maturity: $16.75
Source: Jim Hilker's Market Outlook & Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Grain & Livestock;
Michigan State University,
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

25. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
February 2014 Milk – as of
25% chance less than $15.03
25% changes more than $17.61
Most likely price at maturity: $16.05
Source: Jim Hilker's Market Outlook & Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Grain & Livestock;
Michigan State University,
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

26. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
Milk Class Prices (8/15/2015) $
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
8/15/2013

27. Policy: What the US Dairy Industry fears the Dairy Title of the US Farm Bill will look like coming out of conference:

28. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
MILC
Payment thus far:
Jan 11.8 ¢/cwt
Feb 52.5
March 75.5
April 69.9
May 74.2
June 21.87
July (projected less than 10 ¢/cwt) – likely last payment of the year
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

29. Milk Price Outlook Lower milk prices LOWER feed prices
Building stocks – especially butter and cheese
24% increase in butter stocks over a year ago
8% higher total cheese stocks
Holiday baking season is upcoming … helping butter and cheese prices
Extremely strong export markets
Nonfat dry milk powder up 23% in May over a year ago; 7% increase year-to-date
Increase in cow numbers in 18 of 23 dairy states (mostly East)
*Increase* in production for US and traditional dairy states
How much production/cow and how much cow number growth?

30. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
Mike Schutz
Nicole Olynk Widmar
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

31. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News

32. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
8/14/13
Source:

33. Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.
Fluid milk sales by category
Million Lbs.
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/NASS
Purdue University is an Equal Opportunity/Equal Access institution.

34. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News

35. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News