1. PRECISION FARMING: ADOPTION, PROFITABILITY, AND MAKING BETTER USE OF DATA
T.W. Griffin, J. Lowenberg-DeBoer, D.M. Lambert, and J. Peone
Site Specific Management Center - Purdue University
T. Payne and S.G. Daberkow
USDA-ERS

2. 3 part presentation 1) Adoption trends in the US and Worldwide
2) Review of PA profitability literature
3) Making better use of yield monitor data

3. Adoption Trends Worldwide network of collaborators USDA ARMS study
PA Services Dealership Survey
Whipker and Akridge, 2004

4. Combine Yield Monitors

5. Yield Monitor Grain Flow Sensor

7. Yield Map
Higher yields
Lower yields

8. Actual Adoption Rates of U.S. Yield Monitors
Approximately 30,000 in 2000
45,000 in 2003
Source: before 1995 Mangold
After 1995 USDA ARMS

9. Actual Adoption Rates of U.S. Yield Mapping Yield Monitor plus a GPS
Source: USDA ARMS

10. European Yield Monitor Use
Germany
United Kingdom
Denmark
Sweden
France
Holland
Belgium
Spain
Portugal
Total
Per million acres
Year
In the US, we tend to count all yield monitors
In some other countries, only monitors with GPS are counted.
Making yield monitors standard equipment on combines complicates the issue

11. Latin American Yield Monitor Use
Total
Per million acres
Year
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Uruguay

12. Yield monitors by country
per million acres

13. Soil Mapping Adoption
Soil mapping
Source: USDA ARMS

14. Remote Sensing Adoption
Redefined
question
in 2002
Source: USDA ARMS

15. Adoption of VRT-Fertilizer
Includes lime, N, P, K
Source: USDA ARMS

16. Adoption of VRT in Corn
Source: USDA ARMS

17. Adoption of VRT in Soybean
Source: USDA ARMS

18. Adoption of VRT in Cotton
Source: USDA ARMS

19. VRT Offered by Ag Retailers
67% of service providers offer VRT
40% offer single-nutrient VRT
Still less than 50% by 2006
23% offer multi-nutrient VRT in 2004
28% of providers expect to offer by 2006
<10% offer VRT - seeding
Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004

20. Service Providers Offering VRT fertilizer, lime, and pesticides
Source: Whipker and Akridge

21. VRT-Fertilizer by Region
Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004

22. GPS Lightbars
Purdue Davis Farm

23. GPS Lightbar Guidance used by Service Providers
61% offer applications with GPS guidance
72% in Midwest
39% in other states
Impressive adoption story. . .
Highlights the role of extension
Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004

24. GPS Auto-Guidance 5.3% of dealers use GPS auto-guidance
4.2% in Midwest and 7.4% in other states
Regional difference?
Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004

25. On-the-go Sensors Soil Dr – been around the longest Greenseeker
Norsk Hydro N-sensor
~320 total units
~300 in Europe

26. Sensors for Mapping Soil pH sensor available
Veris Mobile Sensor Platform >5 sold
K sensor being developed
7.8% of dealers offer soil EC mapping*
*Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004

27. Fundamental Constraints of Adoption
Lack of research support
Human capital costs
Lack of education and training
PA raised more question than answered.
PA data shown us what we don’t know about growing crops.
Ag businesses also realize they don’t have all the answers.

28. Fundamental Constraints of Adoption
Lack of support and consulting
High opportunity cost of management time
Information-intensive / embodied knowledge
PA requires more management time ,which is expensive

29. “Information-intensive” vs. “Embodied knowledge”
Field level data to make decisions
Requires additional data and skill
VRT and precision agriculture
IPM
Embodied knowledge
Information purchased in the form of an input
Requires minimal additional data/skill
Hybrid corn
Round-up Ready or Bt

30. Fundamental Incentives of Adoption
Technology costs are declining
Incorporation of technology in society
GPS in cars and boats
Increased comfort level with technology
USDA FSA and NRCS using GIS with farmers

31. Fundamental Incentives of Adoption
Automating Record Keeping
Identity tracking of commodities
Pesticide record keeping
Environmental regulations – monitor input use
May lead into cost sharing for adoption

32. Fundamental Incentives of Adoption
Auto-guidance systems
Increase farm size with same equipment set
Reduce overlap, expand work day, increase speed
Match equipment operations (6, 8, 12 row)
Controlled trafficking
Strip till

33. Economies of Scale in Data Analysis
Skill to analyze 2000 ac works for 20,000 ac
Potential for PA consulting - outsourcing
Complementary goods and services

34. Part 2: PA Profitability Review
Standalone VRT fertilizer often does not cover costs
Swinton and Lowenberg-DeBoer (1998)
In 2000, 63% of studies showed profits, but budget methods not standardized
Lambert and Lowenberg-DeBoer (2000)
Economics of precision agriculture are site-specific
Information costs, analysis and human capital development often omitted

35. Profitability Studies to Date
Reviewed 234 articles
210 reported some kind of benefit or loss
Of those, 68% reported positive benefits
52% of studies involved an economist

36. Articles by Technology

37. Articles by Crop

38. Part 3: Better Use of Data
Many farmers collecting data
10 + years and several megabytes
Question remains: what to do with the data?
No one has all the answers
Is data valuable enough to justify processing?

39. Better Use of Data Better farm-level experimental designs
Spatial statistical methods
More reliable local information

40. Better Experimental Designs
Small plot designs developed 70 years ago
Blocking and replications neutralize variability
Precision agriculture measures variability
Spatial statistics can model variability

41. Better Experimental Designs
Opportunity for fewer replication large blocks
Types of comparisons farmer tend to conduct
Experimental designs being tested in 4 states
Farmer feedback crucial to evaluation

42. 64 acre field
Satellite image
taken in July
Red outline is
field boundary

43. Planned
comparison
design
3 varieties
Single-block
non-replicated
Note: soil types
are outlined in
blue
Each variety is
represented on
each major soil
type/zone

44. Once designs are
decided upon in
off-season,
implementation
is simple at
planting time
Treatments can
be changed at
normal planter
refilling times
Soybean harvest
can be conducted
at any angle to
planter pass

45. Yield Monitor Data Analysis
Yield monitor data analysis service pilot project
37th Annual Top Farmer Crop Workshop
July 18-21, 2004
More reliable results gained

46. Summary Adoption has been slow and uneven
Economics well documented – many studies
Information-intensive vs. embodied knowledge ag
Need for analysis services to overcome constraints

47. Role of Extension Farm Management
Third party evaluation desperately needed
Firm understanding of precision technologies
Help farmers develop own recommendations instead of supplying answer
On-farm comparisons

48. Role of Extension Farm Management
Assist farmers and ag businesses in understanding economics of information
Barriers to adoption are an opportunity for extension to be more relevant

49. Terry Griffin
Site-Specific Management Center
Purdue University