1. Cliff Brewis
Vice President Operations
Dodge Data & Analytics

2. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook
The U.S. economy has performed in a conservative range since the recession, will trump change that?
GDP Pattern:
History Forecast
+1.7% % % % %
Trump Impact:
Stimulate the Economy:
Tax Cuts
Deregulation
Infrastructure
Area of Concern :
Trade War: Mexico & China
Budget Deficit
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3. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook
For consumption to continue employment growth should slow gradually, coupled with an increase in wages.
Jobs lost from Feb.’08 to Feb. ’10: 8.7 Million.
Job creation so far in : million. Unemployment rate at 5.0%
Job growth. in Jan.’13- Dec. ’13: 193,000 /mo.
in Jan.‘14- Dec. ‘14: 251,000 /mo.
in Jan.’15- Dec. ’15: 229,000 /mo.
in Jan.’16- Sept.’16: 178,000 /mo.
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4. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook
Increased Federal spending already locked in
Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act
Enacted on December 4.
$305 billion over a five-year period – highways, $230 bil.;
public transit, $61 bill., Amtrak, $10 bil., safety programs, $5 bil.
Fiscal 2016 Federal Appropriations
Raises federal-aid obligation ceiling 5% to $42.4 billion
Raises Federal Transit Admin.’s budget 8% to $11.8 billion.
FAA Airport Improvement grants held at $3.4 billion
GSA’s construction account tripled to $1.6 billion
VA major construction account doubled to $1.2 billion
Corps of Engineers civil works acct. raised 10% to $6 billion.
Water Resources Development Act ($10.3 bil. +)
Infrastructure plans
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5. U.S. Construction – Dodge Momentum Index
The Dodge Momentum Index - a measure of projects in planning -
offers insight on what lies ahead.
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) tracks
the first (or initial) reports for nonresidential building
projects at the planning stage.
The DMI bottomed out in July 2011,
and has been trending upward since then.
The initial increases were shown by the
commercial component – leveled off in 2014,
Then renewed growth in
Institutional building picked up in 2013, then
leveled off in , renewed growth in 2016,
Strong increases in 2016 for both commercial and
institutional components through August.
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6. U.S. Single Family Housing
Single family housing construction is failing behind in meeting demand from households formations.
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7. Oregon: Single Family Housing
Struggles at entry level, softening at mid and higher levels
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8. Oregon: Multifamily Housing
Showing signs of peaking at a high level.
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9. U.S. Multifamily Housing
Top 10 Metropolitan Areas months year-to-date, 2016 vs Based on dollars.
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10. Oregon: Office Buildings
Strength of Technology along the west coast
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11. U.S. Commercial – Office Buildings
Top 10 Metropolitan Areas - 9 months year-to-date, 2016 vs Based on dollars.
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12. U.S. Commercial – Office Buildings
Other office characteristics – office high-rise percent and alterations.
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13. Oregon: Hotels
Often cyclical, but revenue per room remains a good fundamental
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14. Oregon: Warehouse & Retail
Related sectors impacted by new economic circumstances.
Warehouse
Retail
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15. Oregon: Education
Well into recovery mode
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16. U.S. Institutional – Educational Buildings
K-12 school construction larger and more volatile than colleges/universities.
Much of the recent upturn so far has come from K-12 projects
In 2015, sq. ft. for K-12 school construction
was 4.0 times the size of Colleges/Universities/
Community Colleges.
In 2015, dollars for K-12 school construction
were 2.2 times the size of Colleges/Universities/
Community Colleges.
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17. U.S. Institutional – Educational Buildings
Top 10 States K-12 School Construction - 9 months year-to-date, 2016 vs Based on dollars.
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18. Oregon: Healthcare
Continued uncertainty…..
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19. U.S. Institutional – Healthcare Facilities
Top 10 States – 9 months year-to-date, vs Based on dollars.
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20. Infrastructure Considerations
Potential for Consensus but framework is not clear
Current Status
Highway Trust Fund Operating at a Deficit
Consensus: Infrastructure Under funded
Trump Plan
$1 Trillion program
$170 Billion Private Equity
80+% Tax Reductions
Reduced Lending Costs
Revenue from Toll Roads
Offset by Payroll Taxes
Local Funding
75% of Current funding from State
Impact of Tax Plan on Muni Bonds
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21. Oregon: Highways Infrastructure is gaining momentum politically.
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22. U.S. Public Works – Highways and Bridges
Top 10 States – 9 Months year-to-date, vs Based on dollars.
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23. Oregon: Total Construction
Thousands of Dollars
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24. U.S. Construction Market Outlook
Points of Perspective
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25. Cliff Brewis
Vice President Operations
Dodge Data & Analytics