1. WINTER OUTLOOKS 2018/2019 Alban Joyeau ENSTO-E Lukas Galdikas ENTSO-E
Jacques Reberol ENTSOG
Natalia Romero ENTSOG Claire Camus, Moderator ENTSO-E

2. 1 2 3 4 5 Programme Introduction Winter Supply Outlook (ENTSOG)
Winter Outlook (ENTSO-E)
Questions
Conclusions and next steps

3. What do the outlooks tell you?
Role of interconnections
Influence of external factors: weather, market conditions, consumer behaviour…
Sensitivity analysis: look for severe case scenario (1 out of 20 years) & see how system reacts
Review of the previous season for a deeper understanding and improvements

4. Winter Supply Outlook 2018/19 and Review 2017/18
Jacques Reberol
Natalia Romero

5. Winter Review 2017/2018
Winter 2017/2018 was marked by an extreme cold event in February/March
GAS Infrastructure
During the last week of February and the first week of March four countries in Europe declared an early warning situation and the gas sector managed to cope with this belated cold spell showing robustness and flexibility
Power Generation
The share of gas in the generation of electricity has slightly decreased in the last two years from 20% to 19%.
Power Generation Share (EU28)
Winter
UGS Utilisation (% WGV)
W12/13 66
W13/14 38
W14/15 67
W15/16 49
W16/17
W17/18 71
= 190 TWh

6. Winter Supply Outlook 2018-19 Concept
Assumptions
Reference Winter
1-in-2 year demand and NP as foreseen;
30% target for UGS inventory level on 1st April
Supplies: flex based on last 5 years history
Cold Winter
Highest demand since 2009/10 (as SoS simul)
LNG: flex based on level since 2009/10
High demand cases: Design Case + 2W Cold Spell
L-gas zones modelled
Supply situation
the storage level on 1st October is in the average of the last 5 years
Indigenous production keeps on decreasing

7. Winter Supply Outlook 2018-19 Results
For a 1-in-2 year winter 30% UGS target achievable
For cold winter the situation further injection is necessary
Flexibility ensured by UGSs and high LNG supply
EU storage level on 1st April could drop
Under 24% without storage refill in October
Even lower if high LNG supply does not materialise
The European gas infrastructure offers sufficient flexibility across the season and can supply EU neighbouring countries with significant volumes of gas.
Security of supply remains a point of attention, today… and in the future.
The report also indicates that the European gas system offers enough flexibility in North-West Europe to satisfy an increase in gas demand for power generation.

8. High Demand Situation and Ukrainian Transit Disruption
During the 2-week Cold Spell: No demand curtailment but Finland still shows low Remaining Flexibility below 20%.
Some countries in the South-East Europe could face demand curtailment. Also, all exports to Ukraine are maintained. 8

9. ENTSO-E Winter Outlook 2018/2019
Lukas Galdikas, System Development Adviser, ENTSO-E

10. Operational decisions
Different risks addressed with different timeframes
TYNDP
MAF
Seasonal
RSCs‘
Week ahead
Long term
Mid term
Short term
>10 years
10 years
5 years
1 year
6 months
1 week
Investment decisions
Policy decisions
Operational decisions
REAL TIME
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES

11. Seasonal Outlooks- Stepwise approach
Inputs from TSOs and pan-European databases
European constraining scenarios
synchronous peak
(upward) → Wednesdays 7 pm
low demand with high RES
(downward) → Sundays 5 am and 11 am
Focused analysis on weeks flagged at risk
Probabilistic approach using numerous situations (temperature, wind...)
Aim is to estimate the probability that an issue could occur
Main drivers are identified

12. Lack of margin is not a blackout
Balance in
Day-Ahead including reserves
Scope of Winter Outlook
Intraday Measures
Partial & Controlled demand shedding
Controlled partial shedding
Is 100% of demand met in
day-ahead market?
Strategic reserves
Out of market demand response
Grid exceptional measures

13. Evolution of Europe’s generation mix
Gas power plant capacity has increased after a fall recorded last winter
Acceleration of new RES installation

14. Winter Outlook Context
Nuclear unavailability
Unforeseen maintenance and delays together with countermeasures are considered.
Countermeasures
Hydro reservoir levels near average in Europe
But low river levels in south Germany

15. Winter Outlook- Severe Conditions
Adequacy at pan-European synchronous peak demand time
Out of market measures excluded
Regional cooperation is a key – potential need for out of market measures
Weeks 2-5

16. Vigilance needed in case of cold wave
Probabilistic assessment on week 3 of 2019
Vigilance needed in case of cold wave
Belgium
France
Italy (Northern & Central-North)
When temperature and wind are low
When temperature is low
When temperature is low in Europe

17. Regional Coordination is key – example in CWE
Electricity Coordination Group
Pentalateral Energy Forum
Political Level
ENTSO-E
Technical Level
RSC
RSC
European studies and coordination

18. What for future Seasonal Outlooks?
Prepare future implementation of Clean Energy Package,
especially on Risk Preparedness
Extend coordination with week ahead adequacy
performed by Regional Security Coordinators
Prepare further steps for Seasonal Outlook full probabilistic hourly modelling in similar way as in Mid-term Adequacy Forecast

19. Break of 5 minutes

20. Time for questions/answers

21. Takeaways
ENTSOs seasonal outlooks are unique pan-European, system wide, security of supply analysis
Methodologies are continuously improving and cooperation is enhancing
Adequacy assessed in:
Electricity system under severe conditions
Gas system under extreme cold events or in case of supply route disruptions
Adequacy situation close monitoring needed in case of cold spell in January–February

22. Thank you for your attention
Please send any questions to:
– about ENTSO-E’s Winter Outlook
– about ENTSOG’s Winter Supply Outlook