1. SSSI/PIA Sea level rise Seminar
The Planning Policy Context
Brian Risby, Senior Planning Advisor,
Tasmanian Planning Commission

2. Tolerable risk

3. acceptable level of impact for the community based on cost benefit
Tolerable risk =
acceptable level of impact for the community based on cost benefit

4. environmental social economic
Tolerable risk = acceptable level of impact for the community based on cost benefit
environmental social economic

5. environmental social economic temporal and spatial
Tolerable risk = acceptable level of impact for the community based on cost benefit
environmental social economic temporal and spatial

6. Science
Activity
RISK

7. Science
Activity
RISK

8. Evidence
Planning
Policy

9. The level of tolerance is a function of
Policy is not only a response to the risk tolerance it is a determinant of the level of tolerance
The level of tolerance is a function of
planning decisions of the past
the embedded physical, social, economic values
community aspirations for the future
discount rate, technological fix, ‘Faustian bargains’

10. ‘Tolerance’ is spatially variable individually different
includes community value
temporally changeable

11. spatially variable “Location, location, location”
Community places different values on places
Cultural and economic value of retention can outweigh economic and social loss (Venice – defending the indefensible?)

12. individually different
people prepared to put up with different pain and inconvenience
‘discount rate’ – the extent to which individuals under estimate future impacts
individual decisions can impact on communal values

13. community values more than the ‘sum of the (individual) parts’
‘short term’ decisions to avoid unpopular longer term actions
‘risk averse’ and the threat of litigation
…..what are the community values?

14. temporally changeable
climate change is a ‘wicked problem’
solutions to one problem create other problems
individual and community values change with time and altering environments
risk profile changes in response to mitigation measures

15. Evidence
Planning
Policy

16. issue – science – response – translation – spatial – planning controls
Regulation
Application
Implementation
Policy
Evidence
Condition